The Todd Gurley Thread - Currently FA

[StableOfRBs]

That's just box score scouting. I could use a ton of stats to make weird conclusions like Doug Baldwin has as many seasons averaging less than 10 ppg in PPR than he does more than 10 ppg. Or David Johnson is not reliable, missing 33% of his games in his first 3 years in the league.

That said I do agree with you that Gurley is overrated.

You're correct, most singular stats can be very misleading, but when you've got several stats that all point to the same conclusion it's called evidence, not coincidence.

Also not to get off topic but that Doug Baldwin stat isn't a weird conclusion, Tate got signed by the Lions in 2014 and since then Baldwin has seen a big boost in fantasy value (so has Tate), not to mention the deterioration of the Seattle OL and RB corps.

It's an irrelevant stat, which is something personnel/scheme changes can do to a lot of stats. However, when it comes to Gurley you're comparing two seasons for the same player, on the same offense, with the same OL, the same QB (or same caliber as it were), the same coaching staff, then the isolated variable is the player itself and you can reach a reliable conclusion based on those differences in those seasons (especially when most of the evidence are stats that are determined by deliberately eliminating external factors).

[bgriggsjr]

I have a trade offer in a salary cap dynasty/keeper league. I have Beckham, Jeffrey, Beasley as my WRs, RBs- MCoy, Elliot, mixon, martin and gurley. (Some oddities in trades and drafts.) I have someone offering dez Bryant and a draft pick next season. Prob is gurley has a decent salary. Dez I will cut at end of year due to very high salary more than double gurley. Could keep gurley and Elliot or mccoy at end of year. 2 of three. Would you make deal knowing Bryant is one year player

[Cameron Giles]

As for Gurley, the Rams offense wasn't really any better in 2015 than it was in 2016 (they scored about 3 points per game more in 2015) yet Gurley had far fewer good games (7/12 games with 70+ rush yards in 2015 compared to 3/16 in 2016). The Rams OL is bad, that's pretty obvious, and it's certainly part of the issue when it comes to Gurley's lack of success last year, but Gurley himself is also a big part of the problem, he's just not creating any extra yardage for himself like elite RBs tend to do.

You can't create extra yards when you are not given the opportunities to do it.

Gurley ranked 37th out of 41 RB's in terms of yards before first contact (.84) last week. How can an RB create extra yardage when he's getting hit before he even reaches a yard? That has nothing to do with vision, patience, or lacking creativity. That has everything to do with the offensive line getting beat immediately after the snap.

I don't understand the argument that an elite RB has to overcome a bad offensive line, who gets beat continuously, or he's really not any good. It's not realistic. Gurley isn't leaving any meat on the bones, there just isn't any meat to begin with.

[Phaded]

The real question is - do you think Gurley looks like an elite RB?

Regardless of the offensive line, when you look at the tape and watch him on game day; does he look elite?

He does not to me - and that is the biggest thing.

[StableOfRBs]

As for Gurley, the Rams offense wasn't really any better in 2015 than it was in 2016 (they scored about 3 points per game more in 2015) yet Gurley had far fewer good games (7/12 games with 70+ rush yards in 2015 compared to 3/16 in 2016). The Rams OL is bad, that's pretty obvious, and it's certainly part of the issue when it comes to Gurley's lack of success last year, but Gurley himself is also a big part of the problem, he's just not creating any extra yardage for himself like elite RBs tend to do.

You can't create extra yards when you are not given the opportunities to do it.

Gurley ranked 37th out of 41 RB's in terms of yards before first contact (.84) last week. How can an RB create extra yardage when he's getting hit before he even reaches a yard? That has nothing to do with vision, patience, or lacking creativity. That has everything to do with the offensive line getting beat immediately after the snap.

I don't understand the argument that an elite RB has to overcome a bad offensive line, who gets beat continuously, or he's really not any good. It's not realistic. Gurley isn't leaving any meat on the bones, there just isn't any meat to begin with.

Curious as to where you found that stat, did some googling and couldn't find anything, although I generally try and ignore single game sample sizes because they're too small and too variable compared to an entire season.

The only appreciable difference between his OL in 2015, 2016 and now is that the Rams went out and added Andrew Whitworth. In addition, they hired the offensive line coach from the Bills who's OL last season led the NFL in yards before contact by a wide margin and McVey uses a more RB-friendly zone run scheme. Kind of surprising that their YBFC in week 1 was worse than it was all of last season by about .5 a yard.

[Cameron Giles]

The real question is - do you think Gurley looks like an elite RB?

Regardless of the offensive line, when you look at the tape and watch him on game day; does he look elite?

He does not to me - and that is the biggest thing.

Gurley does not look like an elite RB when I watch games. But, what's the reason?

Does Gurley not look like an elite RB because his offensive line is killing any chance of success? Or does Gurley not look like an elite RB because his talent has depreciated on its own? Is there a middle ground where the truth lies?

[Cameron Giles]

Curious as to where you found that stat, did some googling and couldn't find anything, although I generally try and ignore single game sample sizes because they're too small and too variable compared to an entire season.

The only appreciable difference between his OL in 2015, 2016 and now is that the Rams went out and added Andrew Whitworth. In addition, they hired the offensive line coach from the Bills who's OL last season led the NFL in yards before contact by a wide margin and McVey uses a more RB-friendly zone run scheme. Kind of surprising that their YBFC in week 1 was worse than it was all of last season by about .5 a yard.

I saw it on Twitter from a sports writer. That doesn't sound very reputable though.

The Rams are tasked with doing their best to overcome the lack of talent on the offensive line to create more opportunities for Gurley. It's a tough mission, but they do have the offensive minds to do it. We'll have to give it time, but Gurley's career up to this point would suggest that he has not been given many chances to be successful. The line gets beat quickly.

[Phaded]

The real question is - do you think Gurley looks like an elite RB?

Regardless of the offensive line, when you look at the tape and watch him on game day; does he look elite?

He does not to me - and that is the biggest thing.

Gurley does not look like an elite RB when I watch games. But, what's the reason?

Does Gurley not look like an elite RB because his offensive line is killing any chance of success? Or does Gurley not look like an elite RB because his talent has depreciated on its own? Is there a middle ground where the truth lies?

Of course there can be some middle ground to it - but many Gurley truthers and believers act like it is only the offensive line; where I think most reasonable people can probably agree that there is a problem with Gurley himself.

[Plank]

They are just hoping Phaded, we all do when we invest a high draft pick ..

[zuzaque]

He's looking a lot better out there today. Good runs and good catches.

[Shcritters]

So if I were to offer Gurley for Henry and 2018 1st, you think it is good value and would be accepted? Might not happen with Henry's breakout today... but, thoughts?

[The Red Rooster]

Gurleys stats are looking good today. Not watching, but looking like it's going to be a monster fantasy day when all is said and done.

[The Red Rooster]

Gurleys stats are looking good today. Not watching, but looking like it's going to be a monster fantasy day when all is said and done.

Ok, not monster but darn good.

[Jason3123]

He looked really good today. He is also an excellent receiver. And from a fantasy sense as long as he keeps getting some receptions his floor will be pretty high. More importantly, the offense in general, although not good, is capable of moving the ball and getting to the end zone. He looks well on his way to 10+ touchdowns.

[joeday]

That catch and run and jump and run and dive was pretty great.