The Todd Gurley Thread - Currently FA

[Phaded]

No player is situation proof.

Absolutely, but the truly special players can still perform well even in poor situations, maybe not at an elite level - but still more than respectably.

All I consistently see from Gurley fans is excuses and there is a lot more evidence on the table that the problem with Gurley is not just the situation, but a lot lies on Gurley himself.

Someone above mentioned DJ - last year, the Rams offensive line was ranked 27th. The Cardinals were ranked 26th.

Even Melvin Gordon, who a lot of people knock - the Chargers line was ranked 31st; yet people still want to say Gordon is not good. Yet, Gurley still gets the benefit of the doubt for what reason? Because he broke off a few big runs in his rookie year?

[Cameron Giles]

No player is situation proof.

Absolutely, but the truly special players can still perform well even in poor situations, maybe not at an elite level - but still more than respectably.

All I consistently see from Gurley fans is excuses and there is a lot more evidence on the table that the problem with Gurley is not just the situation, but a lot lies on Gurley himself.

Someone above mentioned DJ - last year, the Rams offensive line was ranked 27th. The Cardinals were ranked 26th.

Even Melvin Gordon, who a lot of people knock - the Chargers line was ranked 31st; yet people still want to say Gordon is not good. Yet, Gurley still gets the benefit of the doubt for what reason? Because he broke off a few big runs in his rookie year?

What stat is this?

Looking at Football Outsiders, Arizona ranked 7th in Adjusted Line Yards, San Diego ranked 23rd, and the Rams ranked 29th.

Arizona - 4.54 adj. line yards (RB's got 4.28)
San Diego - 3.97 adj. line yards (RB's got 3.92)
Rams - 3.66 adj. line yards (RB's got 3.23)

So, it doesn't look like the Rams RB's really left any meat on the bones last season.

[Phaded]

I was looking at the final grades by PFF.

But that also shows part of the problem in trying to rate offensive lines. The statistics are probably the least black and white of any position.

[The Red Rooster]

In fairness, the Cards and Chargers atleast had weapons at WR and solid QBs. I know Palmer was down a bit but it's not fair to compare those 2 offenses to the Rams last year. Imo atleast.

[lukkynumber13]

In fairness, the Cards and Chargers atleast had weapons at WR and solid QBs. I know Palmer was down a bit but it's not fair to compare those 2 offenses to the Rams last year. Imo atleast.

I do agree with you there, the Rams had an insanely talentless offense last year.

[Phaded]

Not like the Rams had any better of an offense when Zac Stacy or Tre Mason were the guys before Gurley.

People around here have talked about Gurley like he is elite for years and in the third year has nothing to show for it but a handful of plays.

My point is people are quick to crucify other RBs but Gurley continually gets a pass around here for some reason despite looking like TRich 2.0.

[The Red Rooster]

Not like the Rams had any better of an offense when Zac Stacy or Tre Mason were the guys before Gurley.

People around here have talked about Gurley like he is elite for years and in the third year has nothing to show for it but a handful of plays.

My point is people are quick to crucify other RBs but Gurley continually gets a pass around here for some reason despite looking like TRich 2.0.

Can't really disagree with you and I admittedly have no idea what to do with him for my team in sig.

[BuckeyeNation]

Not like the Rams had any better of an offense when Zac Stacy or Tre Mason were the guys before Gurley.

People around here have talked about Gurley like he is elite for years and in the third year has nothing to show for it but a handful of plays.

My point is people are quick to crucify other RBs but Gurley continually gets a pass around here for some reason despite looking like TRich 2.0.

Can't really disagree with you and I admittedly have no idea what to do with him for my team in sig.

I agree too. I feel about Gurley the same as I do Gordon. If I'm competitive, I'll continue to happily plug them into my lineups. Even with the influx of high end RBs over the past two rookie classes, true 3-down workhouse RBs are still rare. Off the top of my head I'd say the number is less than 10. Gurley is on that list, so by that alone he's a valuable fantasy asset. I'm not going out of my way to buy him at top 15-20 startup prices though, and I'd almost certainly sell if I was offered that value for him.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Even with the influx of high end RBs over the past two rookie classes, true 3-down workhouse RBs are still rare. Off the top of my head I'd say the number is less than 10. Gurley is on that list, so by that alone he's a valuable fantasy asset.

This kind of peaked my interest so I decided to look it up. A couple of these are probably debatable, but there could be up to 16 or so.

McCoy
Zeke
Bell
Cook
Fournette
Murray
CJA
Hunt
Gordon
DJ
Gurley
Hyde
Ajayi
Lynch?
Gore?
Doug Martin?

Now as for which are long-term 3-down RB's, that's maybe a different story. But I feel like this is the current list.

[lukkynumber13]

Even with the influx of high end RBs over the past two rookie classes, true 3-down workhouse RBs are still rare. Off the top of my head I'd say the number is less than 10. Gurley is on that list, so by that alone he's a valuable fantasy asset.

This kind of peaked my interest so I decided to look it up. A couple of these are probably debatable, but there could be up to 16 or so.

McCoy
Zeke
Bell
Cook
Fournette
Murray
CJA
Hunt
Gordon
DJ
Gurley
Hyde
Ajayi
Lynch?
Gore?
Doug Martin?

Now as for which are long-term 3-down RB's, that's maybe a different story. But I feel like this is the current list.

Over the course of the season I highly doubt we see these guys carrying the rock 18+ times per game:

Cook, CJA, Hyde, Lynch, Gore

but you did bring up a valid point, there are a few more than we might expect!

[BuckeyeNation]

Even with the influx of high end RBs over the past two rookie classes, true 3-down workhouse RBs are still rare. Off the top of my head I'd say the number is less than 10. Gurley is on that list, so by that alone he's a valuable fantasy asset.

This kind of peaked my interest so I decided to look it up. A couple of these are probably debatable, but there could be up to 16 or so.

McCoy
Zeke
Bell
Cook
Fournette
Murray
CJA
Hunt
Gordon
DJ
Gurley
Hyde
Ajayi
Lynch?
Gore?
Doug Martin?

Now as for which are long-term 3-down RB's, that's maybe a different story. But I feel like this is the current list.

I guess IMO the number is right around 10, as there are several names on that list that I wouldn't put in that category. Still it's a deeper list than a couple years ago.

[MrUbuto]

In the PFF Podcast previews, Sam brought up an interesting point that I have been mulling over .. he compared RB to what we have talked about QBs in early development, meaning how many postulate a young QB can be ruined with intensive pressure early in their careers, seeing Ghosts phenomena ..

So the idea is if a RB can't trust that the holes or cut backs will be there, they will never be able to follow a play design always feeling they will have to create on their own .. and some get frustrated and just try to use power and force their way ... It was an interesting thought because at this level you cannot afford any hesitation, the athletes are too good .. so, with this theory a RB doesn't trust the OL, play design, he hesitates just enough, athletes swarm him consistently and we see a bad player .. So can a RB see ghosts if traumatized early in the careers? Some food for thought ...

I think he still possesses the rare speed/size combo .. but it is terribly frustrating that we may never see him put it together .. there were some plays in the last game where the edge wasn't sealed and we could see a glimmer when he used his speed and power on the outside of what we expected to see ..

This is certainly a case study .. I think there is a chance with well blocked schemes by McVay could help him, I think there is a bit of hope ..

So much this. I really feel he's goona need a career like marshall faulk and only a trade can save him.

[StableOfRBs]

No player is situation proof.

Absolutely, but the truly special players can still perform well even in poor situations, maybe not at an elite level - but still more than respectably.

All I consistently see from Gurley fans is excuses and there is a lot more evidence on the table that the problem with Gurley is not just the situation, but a lot lies on Gurley himself.

Someone above mentioned DJ - last year, the Rams offensive line was ranked 27th. The Cardinals were ranked 26th.

Even Melvin Gordon, who a lot of people knock - the Chargers line was ranked 31st; yet people still want to say Gordon is not good. Yet, Gurley still gets the benefit of the doubt for what reason? Because he broke off a few big runs in his rookie year?

What stat is this?

Looking at Football Outsiders, Arizona ranked 7th in Adjusted Line Yards, San Diego ranked 23rd, and the Rams ranked 29th.

Arizona - 4.54 adj. line yards (RB's got 4.28)
San Diego - 3.97 adj. line yards (RB's got 3.92)
Rams - 3.66 adj. line yards (RB's got 3.23)

So, it doesn't look like the Rams RB's really left any meat on the bones last season.

The adjusted line yards (ALY) stat can be somewhat misleading and FO even states that in the few paragraphs preceding the chart itself. Teams with a high ALY but a low open field rank are ones where the line is doing a lot of the work and the RBs are basically taking what is given to them, the opposite is also true where teams that have a low ALY but a high open field rank are ones where the RB is creating a lot of yardage for themselves and the line is actually worse than the ALY would lead you to believe.

ALY rankings vs. open field ranking

AZ: 7th (4.28) ALY vs. 11th (0.82) open field
SD: 23rd (3.97) ALY vs. 12th (0.76) open field
LAR: 29th (3.66) ALY vs. 30th (0.3) open field

The Cardinals OL was great for run blocking last year (they've got 2 very strong starting guards) and the reason that their PFF grading was so low is because they're really bad at pass blocking, partially due to several injuries the line sustained last year (I think they started like 8 or 9 different lineman throughout the season with like 10+ combinations), and they gave up 41 sacks last year, tied for 7th most in the league.

Now the argument for Gurley can certainly be made in regards to the overall poor Rams offense last year but there are several teams on the ALY chart that had better offenses than the Rams did but worse yards created by their OL.

Teams in the bottom half of the league in ALY but top half of the league in points per game:

-Green Bay
-Kansas City
-Chargers
-Carolina

Sure there are outliers like IND being the #2 OL in ALY despite having a very poor OL, likely due to teams respect for Andrew Luck and what he can do for that offense, but overall there isn't really a correlation between total scoring offense and the ALY ranking (there are also several teams that were bottom half in scoring but top half in ALY).

As for Gurley, the Rams offense wasn't really any better in 2015 than it was in 2016 (they scored about 3 points per game more in 2015) yet Gurley had far fewer good games (7/12 games with 70+ rush yards in 2015 compared to 3/16 in 2016). The Rams OL is bad, that's pretty obvious, and it's certainly part of the issue when it comes to Gurley's lack of success last year, but Gurley himself is also a big part of the problem, he's just not creating any extra yardage for himself like elite RBs tend to do.

If you look at Gurley's page on the playerprofiler website (https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/todd ... /past-year) he had 6 carries of 15 or more yards last year out of 278 attempts and when compared to the league average in productivity he was vastly less efficient than other players with a score of -24.4 (74th in the league) compared to Gordon who had a score of -0.2 (38th in the league). You just can't ignore the fact that Gurley hasn't been playing as well, OL and offensive woes aside.

[Vcize]

Number of games less than 4ypc: 21
Number of games less than 3ypc: 12
Numver of games over 4ypc: 8

Pretty hard to believe that a guy who has only eclipsed 4ypc in 8 of his 30 career games (26%) is still considered a top 10 dynasty RB.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

That's just box score scouting. I could use a ton of stats to make weird conclusions like Doug Baldwin has as many seasons averaging less than 10 ppg in PPR than he does more than 10 ppg. Or David Johnson is not reliable, missing 33% of his games in his first 3 years in the league.

That said I do agree with you that Gurley is overrated.