Stefon Diggs Thread: Traded to Buffalo!

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Oddball456
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Re: Diggs value

Postby Oddball456 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:27 am

Phaded wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:05 am
rubber_duck wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:59 amThis sounds like someone is asking for a standard benchmark to use to rank wide receiver performance. What should be used as a PPG target to measure WRs in a PPR league?
Exactly - if 48 WRs on the year hit the "benchmark", it is not a great benchmark.
10 has been the benchmark for a while which I never really understood.

In regards to what should be used for a benchmark - I cannot really decide or place that on the community.
But at first glance from last year.

10 - 48 WRs
11 - 41 WRs
12 - 32 WRs
13 - 22 WRs
14 - 16 WRs
15 - 12 WRs

Note that this is only looking at the numbers from last year (and does not factor in injured player PPG) and would likely require a wider review to form a community consensus; but based on the above I think somewhere around 12-13 might be a good benchmark as that seems to be in the WR2-WR3 range.
This article is very good at breaking down WR1/WR2 weeks

https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2017/ ... receivers/

Breaks it down to WR1 = 20.1 PPG and WR2 = 15.0 PPG where WR1 = top 12 and WR2 = top 13-24

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Re: Diggs value

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:46 am

Reljac wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:01 am
dm1129 wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:50 am This is a dynasty forum. Keep the forum apprised of how Rishad Matthews works for you compared to Diggs going forward. Diggs is just entering his third season and has been in an offense with a decimated o-line. All you have to do is actually watch Diggs play to see the talent. This is ridiculous.
You've clearly missed the point, as it was Cameron Giles trying to argue Diggs last year 'help' to fantasy teams.

If you re-read the post you are arguing against you may find "I like Diggs going forward and he looked the part on Monday"
I don't see how anyone can argue that someone who finished as the WR13 in terms of points on average, didn't help their fantasy team. Again, the keyword is HELP. How is that so controversial?

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Jfever
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Re: Diggs value

Postby Jfever » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:02 am

It isn't.
Truth is found through Evidence.

Science is the poetry of reality.

* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.

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rubber_duck
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Re: Diggs value

Postby rubber_duck » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:05 am

Oddball456 wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:27 am
Phaded wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:05 am
rubber_duck wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:59 amThis sounds like someone is asking for a standard benchmark to use to rank wide receiver performance. What should be used as a PPG target to measure WRs in a PPR league?
Exactly - if 48 WRs on the year hit the "benchmark", it is not a great benchmark.
10 has been the benchmark for a while which I never really understood.

In regards to what should be used for a benchmark - I cannot really decide or place that on the community.
But at first glance from last year.

10 - 48 WRs
11 - 41 WRs
12 - 32 WRs
13 - 22 WRs
14 - 16 WRs
15 - 12 WRs

Note that this is only looking at the numbers from last year (and does not factor in injured player PPG) and would likely require a wider review to form a community consensus; but based on the above I think somewhere around 12-13 might be a good benchmark as that seems to be in the WR2-WR3 range.
This article is very good at breaking down WR1/WR2 weeks

https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2017/ ... receivers/

Breaks it down to WR1 = 20.1 PPG and WR2 = 15.0 PPG where WR1 = top 12 and WR2 = top 13-24
Interesting article.

BUT: a WR1 does not average 20 PPG over the entire season. The article discusses how often the top receivers hit the 20 point mark.

I think the 20 PPG benchmark would be good for DFS play when choosing match-ups. But as a stand alone number it is too high to use measuring season long scoring for WR1s.

What interested me most in the article was the approach taken:
- What percentage of games played did the receiver score as a WR1?
- What percentage of games played did the receiver score as a WR2?

Using that methodology may be much better than simply counting points. It gives a clearer picture of how many games the receiver met or exceeded expectations. The way I read it, the article's proposed benchmark would be:
WR1 should score 15+ points in at least 50% of their games (12 teams, PPR scoring).

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Re: Diggs value

Postby gogobradyarm » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:08 am

It seems the argument is the floor he has provided, by either playing injured or being out. I think there is a fair argument with std deviation between his good and bad games, however i'm on the side that thinks Diggs is the real deal. I think there is clear explanation to why he had such deviation, that can't be provided via statistical analysis. The context being, the offense was bad last year, the running game was a mess, the line was mess, and Bradford didn't have an offseason to prep with his new team after being brought in late in the Summer. The fact remains, that when Diggs was healthy, he was a bit streaky, but we really saw some flashes of what his ceiling could be. He is an excellent route runner, has good speed, excellent hands and is still very young and eager to improve.

He has had some injury issues, that is true, but I don't think they have been soft tissue issues, which would be more concerning to me. I think its been a bit fluky, and he has made the right regime changes to get better. Solid character and great work ethic, I don't see what could derail him outside of injury. He posseses all the intangibles that make a great WR an elite WR.

With the offense coming together, Bradford looking good, Cook there established, a new blocking scheme, Thielen and Rudolph being productive, Diggs will face a lot of single coverage....and with that route running and ability to make difficult catches, his future is looking very bright...again, as along as he can stay on the field. He improve from his freshman, to sophomore year, and I expect the leap to continue this year...especially after the week 1 play. I'm very excited about him! To those saying Thielen is doing well too, well that is totally fair, but Diggs was the first read often for Bradford, and I don't expect that to change. Thielen is very talented, it only helps Diggs.

I think the window to buy has passed, I would be surprised if you can get him for less than a single first. I think has carved a way into the top 12 WRs, and personally he's already in my top 10.
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Kupp, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton

2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Champ: 2020, 2021
Year 9 of my league

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dynastyninja
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Re: Diggs value

Postby dynastyninja » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:09 am

Time to play the value game. What is he worth? 1 first, 2 firsts, 3 firsts. Somewhere in between? Let's hear it.

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Re: Diggs value

Postby Jfever » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:26 am

Just my opinion of course, and I do own him in 1/6 dynasty leagues AND I'm a huge Vikings fan. But along with that, I've seen him up close working and out shining all other wr on the team at Vikings Training camp the last 3 Augusts.

Diggs >> 1 first
Diggs >= 2 mid firsts
Diggs <<3 firsts

* I'm of the mindset that very few players currently playing in the NFL are worth 3 first round draft picks.
Truth is found through Evidence.

Science is the poetry of reality.

* Reality (as defined by Webster's dictionary) - A word for things as they actually exist, as opposed to an idealistic or notional ideal of them.

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Re: Diggs value

Postby Phaded » Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:36 am

dynastyninja wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:09 am Time to play the value game. What is he worth? 1 first, 2 firsts, 3 firsts. Somewhere in between? Let's hear it.
Hard me to say as I am not buying and not as big on him. He is a fine receiver and all; but the perception by some that he is a WR1 is too rich for my blood.

With that said - probably somewhere around 2 firsts would be the going rate, I guess.

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Re: Diggs value

Postby SkinZ187 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:29 am

I just acquired him. Gave Demarco + Henry + Martavis for Diggs + CJA + Charles + Booker

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Reljac
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Re: Diggs value

Postby Reljac » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:47 am

Oddball456 wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:27 am This article is very good at breaking down WR1/WR2 weeks

https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2017/ ... receivers/

Breaks it down to WR1 = 20.1 PPG and WR2 = 15.0 PPG where WR1 = top 12 and WR2 = top 13-24
Great Article, and affirms much of what several of were trying to say about his all or none gaming, ie streakiness at this point in his career, and despite the heavy GroupThink here.... Diggs may be #15 in % of WR1 performances, but he drops to #32 in % of WR2 or better appearances
12-team Non-PPR QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, TE, K, DEF
QB: Herbert, Tanny
RB: Chubb, Stevenson, AJ Dillion
WR: AJ Brown, M Evans, M Williams, D London, C Olave, Jameson Williams, M Thomas
TE: D Njoku
K: Butker


2023: 1.01, 2.01
2024 early first, late first

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dm1129
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Re: Diggs value

Postby dm1129 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:49 am

I traded for Diggs this past offseason. He was my #1 priority. In a very knowledgeable 32 team( 2 copy) league I initially offered a 1st and 2nd to both owners, both instantly rejected. I then offered 2 1sts, one owner instant reject and the second owner eventually accepted. Since the trade, I have spoken to the owner who gave up Diggs and he has clearly said he would not do the deal now....fwiw

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Re: Diggs value

Postby dm1129 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:55 am

Reljac wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:47 am
Oddball456 wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:27 am This article is very good at breaking down WR1/WR2 weeks

https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2017/ ... receivers/

Breaks it down to WR1 = 20.1 PPG and WR2 = 15.0 PPG where WR1 = top 12 and WR2 = top 13-24
Great Article, and affirms much of what several of were trying to say about his all or none gaming, ie streakiness at this point in his career, and despite the heavy GroupThink here.... Diggs may be #15 in % of WR1 performances, but he drops to #32 in % of WR2 or better appearances
There is nothing groupthink about Diggs' talent. Trying to say Diggs is streaky without context of the offense he has been playing in is pointless. No matter what spreadsheet you look at, Diggs has the talent to dominate a game. There are very few WRs entering their third season that you can say that about. What the future holds for the offense he is playing in, no one knows for certain, but the same can be said about any player including AB.

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Reljac
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Re: Diggs value

Postby Reljac » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:06 pm

Oh lord, devolving into the Melvin Gordon thread, where we just reference "talent" and blame the rest of the offense.
12-team Non-PPR QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, TE, K, DEF
QB: Herbert, Tanny
RB: Chubb, Stevenson, AJ Dillion
WR: AJ Brown, M Evans, M Williams, D London, C Olave, Jameson Williams, M Thomas
TE: D Njoku
K: Butker


2023: 1.01, 2.01
2024 early first, late first

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rubber_duck
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Re: Diggs value

Postby rubber_duck » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:08 pm

Reljac wrote: Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:06 pm Oh lord, devolving into the Melvin Gordon thread, where we just reference "talent" and blame the rest of the offense.
No. This is evolving from a box score generalization to a contextual analysis.

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Reljac
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Re: Diggs value

Postby Reljac » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:25 pm

Using the word talent is not context, it's generalization unless you put substance around it. So what talent does he have that is significantly better than his peers, can be demonstratively proven as fact, and will allow him to beat the top CBs in the league to establish himself as a player that would actually be worth multiple 1sts?
12-team Non-PPR QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, TE, K, DEF
QB: Herbert, Tanny
RB: Chubb, Stevenson, AJ Dillion
WR: AJ Brown, M Evans, M Williams, D London, C Olave, Jameson Williams, M Thomas
TE: D Njoku
K: Butker


2023: 1.01, 2.01
2024 early first, late first


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