Mike Williams for Kareem Hunt?

[Nesus]

That's like saying that Juju Smith-Schuster should be the 1.02 because that's where I had him ranked in this class in 2015. Circumstances change. Preseason games occur. Players break their backs, players become the starting rb on their team.

Exactly this. In 2015 you could have the same argument that Kevin White didn't get any worse and David Johnson didn't get any better. May be an extreme example but there is a high likelihood that Kareem Hunt will be worth far more than Mike Williams after this season ends.

You guys are using extreme examples that are not very relevant. I'll try to explain my logic and keep it simple. You either thought Hunt was good enough to take over the starting job over an average RB in Ware, or you thought he wasn't. That shouldn't have changed after Ware's injury. I ranked him based on the assumption that he would take over, so his ranking doesn't change for me at all. Also, I usually rank players prior to the NFL draft based on their skills/talents and I very rarely move them based on where they get picked or their situation.

In the case of Juju, he didn't meet expectations and actually took a step back last year from 2015, so you can argue he did get worse. Also, many other players got better and passed him in my (and everyone else's) rankings. Same with White and DJ. White hasn't even been able to stay on the field, and when he has, he's looked terrible. Obviously no one knew DJ was going to be this good, so in everyone's eyes, he did get better. So I'm just not understanding those two arguments.

Well first, I drafted Mike Williams at 1.06 in May before I found out about his sketchy back.

I understand what you're saying and for the most part I agree that its talent > situation. But my only argument here is that you're taking it way too far. If you don't adjust your predraft board based on the NFL draft, injuries, and what you see when these players perform on the field (especially in NFL jerseys) then you're just handicapping yourself.

[Goddard]

Well first, I drafted Mike Williams at 1.06 in May before I found out about his sketchy back.

I understand what you're saying and for the most part I agree that its talent > situation. But my only argument here is that you're taking it way too far. If you don't adjust your predraft board based on the NFL draft, injuries, and what you see when these players perform on the field (especially in NFL jerseys) then you're just handicapping yourself.

I didn't say I don't adjust for injuries or performance, just situation. In terms of injuries, Mike Williams' injury is a concern, but not enough for me to knock him down past the 1.06. As for performance, I usually try not to get caught up in a couple of preseason games. Obviously if someone performs extremely well or poor during the season, then I definitely make adjustments to my rankings. But I also didn't knock someone like Gordon after his miserable rookie year and stuck with him, which paid off greatly last year.

[norcalmill]

i get dynasty value...but at some point its all about winning. And today...you need a RB to win. its not like you are trading julio jones for MArshawn Lynch...Both Hunt and Williams are rookies with nothing but "projections" in front of them. Hunts projection is looking to pay out week 1...Mike will take some time to pan out.
for me i easily choose Hunt to win now and he also brings long term upside as well. there is always more risk with long term fantasy value in RB's but that doesnt mean you can go without them.

[Gunner11]

For me, I believe Hunt will not produce well enough to be a 3 down back. I dont think he will be any good for a full season. May start off hot but will cool down. His value is going through the roof compared to Mixon, Cook and Mccaffrey due to not having anyone in his way to being the starter (excluding Mccaffrey)

[Nesus]

Well first, I drafted Mike Williams at 1.06 in May before I found out about his sketchy back.

I understand what you're saying and for the most part I agree that its talent > situation. But my only argument here is that you're taking it way too far. If you don't adjust your predraft board based on the NFL draft, injuries, and what you see when these players perform on the field (especially in NFL jerseys) then you're just handicapping yourself.

I didn't say I don't adjust for injuries or performance, just situation. In terms of injuries, Mike Williams' injury is a concern, but not enough for me to knock him down past the 1.06. As for performance, I usually try not to get caught up in a couple of preseason games. Obviously if someone performs extremely well or poor during the season, then I definitely make adjustments to my rankings. But I also didn't knock someone like Gordon after his miserable rookie year and stuck with him, which paid off greatly last year.

Yep we're about on the same page here. I enjoy the discourse. I do take into account what I see in the preseason games and hunt looks like a not special, but starting caliber rb. If I was rebuilding I'd take Mike Williams too and I think he's the better player longterm. But I like Kareem Hunt as a top 15 rb this year, we have relatively shallow rosters, and rb production is the only thing holding me back from making a run this year

[chalorpas]

Well first, I drafted Mike Williams at 1.06 in May before I found out about his sketchy back.

I understand what you're saying and for the most part I agree that its talent > situation. But my only argument here is that you're taking it way too far. If you don't adjust your predraft board based on the NFL draft, injuries, and what you see when these players perform on the field (especially in NFL jerseys) then you're just handicapping yourself.

I didn't say I don't adjust for injuries or performance, just situation. In terms of injuries, Mike Williams' injury is a concern, but not enough for me to knock him down past the 1.06. As for performance, I usually try not to get caught up in a couple of preseason games. Obviously if someone performs extremely well or poor during the season, then I definitely make adjustments to my rankings. But I also didn't knock someone like Gordon after his miserable rookie year and stuck with him, which paid off greatly last year.

For me it's all about trade value, and I would say there is a 95% chance that Hunt will have higher trade value than Mike Williams by the end of the season. Maybe Mike Williams will end up having a great career and be worth more than Hunt eventually, but a broken back drops value and a workhorse role increases value. If I can trade Hunt for two Mike Williams' by season end, why wouldn't I want to grab Hunt now? I would guess that a large majority of Hunt owners are not trading him for Mike Williams right now. I would be very surprised if even one person on this forum came forward saying they traded Hunt for Williams after the Ware injury news.

Edit: Maybe a more relevant example, but if Demarco Murray tore his ACL today, would you not move Henry up? His value would skyrocket, just like what we're seeing / going to see with Hunt.

[Reljac]

This is an example of where I'd lean Opportunity over talent. M Williams has great talent IMO, but he's both dealing with a checkered injury history and a crowded receiver corps even after he returns. Hunt has the chance to not only contribute out of the gate, but run away as the workhorse KC RB. If Hunt does well this year, I'd full expect him to easily be worth more than Mike Williams by end of season. Right now Mike Williams value is solely based on talent and expectations.

[Goddard]

For me it's all about trade value, and I would say there is a 95% chance that Hunt will have higher trade value than Mike Williams by the end of the season. Maybe Mike Williams will end up having a great career and be worth more than Hunt eventually, but a broken back drops value and a workhorse role increases value. If I can trade Hunt for two Mike Williams' by season end, why wouldn't I want to grab Hunt now? I would guess that a large majority of Hunt owners are not trading him for Mike Williams right now. I would be very surprised if even one person on this forum came forward saying they traded Hunt for Williams after the Ware injury news.

Edit: Maybe a more relevant example, but if Demarco Murray tore his ACL today, would you not move Henry up? His value would skyrocket, just like what we're seeing / going to see with Hunt.

I get the trade value argument, but most good dynasty owners aren't going to give up on Mike Williams that quickly. I agree that if you're drafting Hunt and trading him for Mike Williams+, then you're doing it right. As for Henry, I already value him based on how I think he's going to eventually do once he does take over, so for me, his value wouldn't change if Murray got hurt.