When you ask how much time someone spent on something and then immediately declare that something to be wrong, you are automatically inferring that the time was wasted. He then declared that Foreman would be out of the league by the end of his rookie contract, with no reasoning as to why that would be. I have less a problem with his declaration on Mixon as I can see why someone would think it self-evident, but ultimately he added nothing to the conversation beyond some trash talk. I don't really have a problem with that, and the reaction seemed a bit like an overreaction given the amount of trash talking that goes on here and is largely considered acceptable, but to consider it constructive? Nope.clarion contrarion wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2017 6:29 am upon a 2nd reading ,you paraphrased with a harsh editing perhaps the way you read the post was not the way the guy intended he only questioned the effort expended for the conclusions reached ? Then stated what he thought the outcomes would be of foreman and mixon . Unless he edited the post ,which it doesn't appear he did then your comprehension of what he wrote varies wildly from mine. DD whether I agree with all his info does have the balls to put it out there and to his lasting credit he did go all in on DJ before he broke out. He touts an 80% accuracy rate when from bill polians's very lips he states that the best hope to get it RIGHT 55% of the time . When you claim to be 68% better than the best you had better wear a crash helmet for the blow back is all I am saying.
2017 Running Back Report
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)
QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
DB - D. James, Baker, Delpit
K - Just a stupid kicker
QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
DB - D. James, Baker, Delpit
K - Just a stupid kicker
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report
Again, criticism doesn't bother me but criticism centered around a false premise does. He's attributing the comparisons to my model and that's simply not the case. The little scouting report and comparison details I provide are clearly opinion-based, although I do try to match them up to a player that has a similar numerical profile if possible. I add those in because I think it provides some context to each player and makes the report more interesting to read. If you disagree with my opinion that's perfectly fine, but don't misconstrue my opinion and model as one in the same. I even went on to explain how a Foreman to Foster comp based solely upon numbers/draft profile makes no sense.
2) Your prediction of Mixon being considered a top 5-10 RB is actually supported by my model.
1) My model did not spit out a Foreman to Foster, or Mixon to Prosise comp. If you want the direct comparisons based on their odds of "success" (as defined in my post) merely look at the lists provided.FFFAN wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2017 5:27 am You spent how much time on this? And after all that time it spits out a Foreman and Arian Foster comp and Mixon to Procise? Lol. Thanks for your insight man. Let's revisit this post down the road. My prediction is foreman is out of the NFL by the end of his rookie contract and Mixon is a top 5-10 Rb.
2) Your prediction of Mixon being considered a top 5-10 RB is actually supported by my model.
3) It's not really a secret, I've told several people in the past pretty much exactly what the requirements are. The difference between them and people like yourself is they actually showed a genuine interest in what I was doing and wanted to know more, whereas I'd be shocked if you even read my post in it's entirety considering your ill-informed responses.
Re: 2017 Running Back Report
One thing is for sure, if Foreman hits, I will be rolling in riches. I have drafted him in 4/5 drafts that I have completed so far. If he does not hit, I will have a lot of Foremans to unload.
Team 1
12 Team .2 PPR (1 PPR after 5 rec), salary cap.
1QB, 1-3 RB, 2-4 WR, 1-3 TE.
QB: Eli, Wentz, Romo
RB: DJ, Freeman, Hyde, Coleman, Mathews
WR: OBJ, ARob, Watkins, Moncrief, White, Gordon, Hogan, Woods
TE: Gronk, Ebron
2017 Picks: 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5
Team 2
12 team .2 PPR (full point after 5 receptions), salary cap. 1QB, 0-3RB, 2-5 WR, 1-3 TE.
QB: Wilson,
RB: Drake, Marshall
WR: OBJ, Alshon, TY Hilton, Jordy Nelson, Benjamin, Parker, Doctson, John Brown, Shepard
TE: Eifert, Ebron,
2017 Picks: 1.06, 1.10, 2.06, 3.01, 3.10
Team 3 (3rd Year Orphan)
12 team .2 PPR (full point after 5 receptions), salary cap. 1QB, 1-3 RB, 2-4 WR, 1-3 TE.
QB: Brees, Kaep
RB: DJ, Forte, Dion Lewis, White, Drake, Ellington
WR: OBJ, Matthews, John Brown, Fuller, Parker, White, Lockett, Treadwell, Hogan, Sharpe
TE: Brate, Ladarius, Kendricks
2017 Picks: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5
12 Team .2 PPR (1 PPR after 5 rec), salary cap.
1QB, 1-3 RB, 2-4 WR, 1-3 TE.
QB: Eli, Wentz, Romo
RB: DJ, Freeman, Hyde, Coleman, Mathews
WR: OBJ, ARob, Watkins, Moncrief, White, Gordon, Hogan, Woods
TE: Gronk, Ebron
2017 Picks: 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5
Team 2
12 team .2 PPR (full point after 5 receptions), salary cap. 1QB, 0-3RB, 2-5 WR, 1-3 TE.
QB: Wilson,
RB: Drake, Marshall
WR: OBJ, Alshon, TY Hilton, Jordy Nelson, Benjamin, Parker, Doctson, John Brown, Shepard
TE: Eifert, Ebron,
2017 Picks: 1.06, 1.10, 2.06, 3.01, 3.10
Team 3 (3rd Year Orphan)
12 team .2 PPR (full point after 5 receptions), salary cap. 1QB, 1-3 RB, 2-4 WR, 1-3 TE.
QB: Brees, Kaep
RB: DJ, Forte, Dion Lewis, White, Drake, Ellington
WR: OBJ, Matthews, John Brown, Fuller, Parker, White, Lockett, Treadwell, Hogan, Sharpe
TE: Brate, Ladarius, Kendricks
2017 Picks: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report
I think Henry is properly valued right now (from my experience, owners want a 1st+), so it's up to you whether you want to buy or not.
Re: 2017 Running Back Report
Btw thanks for this great article. Good to see people provide quality info for free. Do you expect Foreman to emerge by 2018 or do you think it will take him more time?
Re: 2017 Running Back Report
Honestly man not trying to be disrespectful but I just completely disagree with you on Foreman. You're saying that mixon being 5-10 is supported by your formula yet you mentioned some negatives in your opening piece. Anyway, I'm pretty confident you're way off on foreman but I guess well find out in the coming seasons.Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:18 am Again, criticism doesn't bother me but criticism centered around a false premise does. He's attributing the comparisons to my model and that's simply not the case. The little scouting report and comparison details I provide are clearly opinion-based, although I do try to match them up to a player that has a similar numerical profile if possible. I add those in because I think it provides some context to each player and makes the report more interesting to read. If you disagree with my opinion that's perfectly fine, but don't misconstrue my opinion and model as one in the same. I even went on to explain how a Foreman to Foster comp based solely upon numbers/draft profile makes no sense.
1) My model did not spit out a Foreman to Foster, or Mixon to Prosise comp. If you want the direct comparisons based on their odds of "success" (as defined in my post) merely look at the lists provided.FFFAN wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2017 5:27 am You spent how much time on this? And after all that time it spits out a Foreman and Arian Foster comp and Mixon to Procise? Lol. Thanks for your insight man. Let's revisit this post down the road. My prediction is foreman is out of the NFL by the end of his rookie contract and Mixon is a top 5-10 Rb.
2) Your prediction of Mixon being considered a top 5-10 RB is actually supported by my model.
3) It's not really a secret, I've told several people in the past pretty much exactly what the requirements are. The difference between them and people like yourself is they actually showed a genuine interest in what I was doing and wanted to know more, whereas I'd be shocked if you even read my post in it's entirety considering your ill-informed responses.
Re: 2017 Running Back Report
[quote=FFFAN post_id=1277151
Honestly man not trying to be disrespectful but I just completely disagree with you on Foreman. You're saying that mixon being 5-10 is supported by your formula yet you mentioned some negatives in your opening piece. Anyway, I'm pretty confident you're way off on foreman but I guess well find out in the coming seasons.
[/quote]
Yes because every top 10 RB has 0 flaws at all... And they were all absolutely perfect coming right out of college... Cmon man....
Honestly man not trying to be disrespectful but I just completely disagree with you on Foreman. You're saying that mixon being 5-10 is supported by your formula yet you mentioned some negatives in your opening piece. Anyway, I'm pretty confident you're way off on foreman but I guess well find out in the coming seasons.
[/quote]
Yes because every top 10 RB has 0 flaws at all... And they were all absolutely perfect coming right out of college... Cmon man....
12 Team 1 ppr .1 points per carry
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06
Garbage
QB Jalen Hurts
RB A-train, D'Onta Foreman,Jahmyr Gibbs, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, AJ Dillon, Jerrick McKinnon, Joshua Kelley, TDP, Chase Edmonds, JRob, Zamir White
WR CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, Hollywood Brown, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Junior, Marvin Jones, Braxton Berrios, Richie James
TE Dalton Kincaid, Foster Moreau
+2 Flex
1.02, 1.06
Re: 2017 Running Back Report
I'm so glad that I spent the time to read this thread. DD, thanks a million for the effort you did in putting this together. I've got my first draft on Saturday and sitting with the 1.01 and 1.12 and in need of RBs, (and WRs too for that matter) but I may just bookend the 1st round now with Fournette and Foreman. I've been having a helluva time trying to weigh the merits of Davis vs. Fournette at 1.01 for months now and this may have just made my mind up.
Re: 2017 Running Back Report
Sounds like an achievable plan.Vendetta wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2017 8:42 pm I'm so glad that I spent the time to read this thread. DD, thanks a million for the effort you did in putting this together. I've got my first draft on Saturday and sitting with the 1.01 and 1.12 and in need of RBs, (and WRs too for that matter) but I may just bookend the 1st round now with Fournette and Foreman. I've been having a helluva time trying to weigh the merits of Davis vs. Fournette at 1.01 for months now and this may have just made my mind up.
I can get on board with Foreman at 12, definitely. I wouldn't rely on him being there though. You better still have a solid draft board.
Re: 2017 Running Back Report
Piling on, great report, was able to nab Foreman in the 4th round if idp league
10Team PPR-QB/RB/WR/WR/TE/PK/flex-DT/DE/DE/LB/LB/LB/CB/CB/S/S/flex
QB- Herbert, Tua
RB- Barkley, Swift, Montgomery, Dobbins, Walker
WR-Adams, ARSB, JWilliams, Godwin, Metcalf, Allen, Kirk, Flowers
TE- Kelce, Goedert
PK
DT- Buckner, Simmons, QWilliams,
DE- Hunter, JBosa, Thibodeaux, JPHillips, Rousseau, Paye, Greenard
LB- Edmunds, Warner, E Kendricks, Wagner, De"Vondre Campbell, Asamoah, Sanders
CB- Moore, Howard, Reed
S- Dugger, Pitre, Thompson
IR Dobbins, Dulcich
Taxi- Kincaid, QJohnston
QB- Herbert, Tua
RB- Barkley, Swift, Montgomery, Dobbins, Walker
WR-Adams, ARSB, JWilliams, Godwin, Metcalf, Allen, Kirk, Flowers
TE- Kelce, Goedert
PK
DT- Buckner, Simmons, QWilliams,
DE- Hunter, JBosa, Thibodeaux, JPHillips, Rousseau, Paye, Greenard
LB- Edmunds, Warner, E Kendricks, Wagner, De"Vondre Campbell, Asamoah, Sanders
CB- Moore, Howard, Reed
S- Dugger, Pitre, Thompson
IR Dobbins, Dulcich
Taxi- Kincaid, QJohnston
Re: 2017 Running Back Report
Yes because every top 10 RB has 0 flaws at all... And they were all absolutely perfect coming right out of college... Cmon man....nathanq42 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:34 pm [quote=FFFAN post_id=1277151
Honestly man not trying to be disrespectful but I just completely disagree with you on Foreman. You're saying that mixon being 5-10 is supported by your formula yet you mentioned some negatives in your opening piece. Anyway, I'm pretty confident you're way off on foreman but I guess well find out in the coming seasons.
[/quote]
LOL... Mixons noted flaws in the original post seemed lengthy compared to that of Foremans. It just caught me off guard that Foremans analysis was glowing when mixon was criticized for things like lateral quickness. Yet he still views mixon as a top 10 Rb?...
Like I said before, I just disagree. Foremans a bum, don't waste your pick on him. Mixon could turn into a generational running back, go get him!
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report
I was wondering if there was a way to analyze guys like Ty Montgomery? I know he wasn't drafted to be an RB so it might be tricky. I would love it if you could somehow run his numbers or give us a good estimate on where he would fall in the tier groups based off your methods. I hope this is possible.
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr
11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)
Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White
Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez
Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo
Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker
24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5
Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE
Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning
JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker
Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,
Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins
24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5
11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)
Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White
Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez
Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo
Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker
24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5
Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE
Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning
JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker
Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,
Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins
24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report
No problem. I'm curious, what is it about Foreman that you find so offensive.
If we're talking about "noted flaws" with their games, I disagree. I did point out Mixon's curious situation with Perine and the flawed comps to DJ and Bell, but those aren't flaws with his actual game on the field.
I still think Davis v. Fournette can come down to need, but I do think Fournette is probably the better pick. It's nearly impossible to trade for a stud RB these days, whereas you can find fringe WR1 production easier to come by. As for taking Foreman at 1.12, I would condone it however depending on your league you might be able to trade back and still get him. I believe most people are still taking him late-2nd?Vendetta wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2017 8:42 pmI've got my first draft on Saturday and sitting with the 1.01 and 1.12 and in need of RBs, (and WRs too for that matter) but I may just bookend the 1st round now with Fournette and Foreman. I've been having a helluva time trying to weigh the merits of Davis vs. Fournette at 1.01 for months now and this may have just made my mind up.
Not really, unfortunately.SteveMaddensShoes wrote: ↑Fri Jun 30, 2017 7:42 am I was wondering if there was a way to analyze guys like Ty Montgomery?
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Re: 2017 Running Back Report
Do you mind sharing your personal opinion on Ty Montgomery? I know you said you can't analyze Ty(due to missing information i guess?), but with what you do know of him and his combine/metrics could you venture a guess into what tier he might fall?
edit-My intuition tells me you DESPISE having to make guesses instead of using data. Will you guess just to humor me though
edit-My intuition tells me you DESPISE having to make guesses instead of using data. Will you guess just to humor me though
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr
11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)
Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White
Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez
Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo
Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker
24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5
Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE
Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning
JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker
Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,
Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins
24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5
11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)
Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White
Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez
Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo
Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker
24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5
Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE
Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning
JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker
Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,
Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins
24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5
Re: 2017 Running Back Report
Just curious, when I see Foreman's highlights, it often appears like he's constantly running out of the Shotgun (hand in hand with the QB)...any positives or negatives to this?
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