The Mike Williams Thread: Finally turned the corner?

[whodunnit]

Just went 1.11 in a rookie draft we're doing following a startup. Superflex/TE Premium bumped a couple of guys (Njoku, Watson) but still blows my mind he went that late.

[Novacane]

Just went 1.11 in a rookie draft we're doing following a startup. Superflex/TE Premium bumped a couple of guys (Njoku, Watson) but still blows my mind he went that late.

I got him at 1.10 yesterday. The guy at 1.09 took Marshawn Lynch. Gave my 1.11 and 2.11 for the 1.10 and 3.12 to trade up when he fell. A couple leaguemates thought I overpaid. I slept like a baby last night with a smile ear to ear.

[KingsKing]

Just got him at 1.9 in a 16 teamer, pretty excited.

[Shoreline Steamers]

This is dynasty. MW isn't getting moved down because he didn't participate in OTAs. For that matter Davis has been going #1 overall and he is still currently injured and Ross has always battled injuries. There is no reason to move him. You certainly shouldn't be expecting a bunch of production in 2017 though. Guaranteed he'll be getting moved next year for late 1st round picks.

Which is why you should probably take someone else with a better shot to produce out of the gate, and THEN add Williams after the season when you can buy him at a reduced price. Why pay 1.06 for him today if you forecast his value to decrease due to an underwhelming rookie season?

Frankly though, I wasn't that high on him to begin with. I don't have any issue at all with those that got him in the 1.09-1.11 range. But at 1.06 I'd rather invest in Perrine or Hunt over Williams.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I've never been that high on Williams so I can see Ross ahead of him, bumping him to the 1.07. He's a senior, he wasn't outstanding from market share perspective, etc. Personally I just don't get the John Ross hate in the dynasty community.

After that though? Who are you taking? A TE? A 3rd or 4th round RB? Over the 7th overall pick in the draft?

[A-train]

Not going to lie I have the 1.06 and am thinking of taking Howard for team in Sig. Just feel I need a tight end over another receiver.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Not going to lie I have the 1.06 and am thinking of taking Howard for team in Sig. Just feel I need a tight end over another receiver.

Some might say that's crazy, but I get the point. The last few drafts I've missed on the 1st-tier RB's based on draft position and had to go WR as BPA. I don't think I'll take any WR's this year. Thankfully it's a deep class at RB and possibly the best ever class of TE's to come into the NFL at once. If it works out, that's what I'll be stocking up on.

[Kelldon]

Yes he is. If you aren't comfortable taking him at 1.6 then try and trade down a few spots

[smallxl]

Still 1.06 for me. No sooner or later.

This sums it up nicely. I still think he's a value pick.

[KenAndTonic]

Sounds like there are a few others in agreement here, but if you are in need of a TE or in a TE premium league, I see no issue with taking OJ Howard (or Njoku, if you prefer) ahead of Williams. Agreed that I wouldn't let this little bit of injury news influence my decision on Williams in a dynasty league, but if you prefer a TE, take a TE. It's only really overdrafting if your guy would have been available with your next pick and unless you can manage a trade, the Howard/Njoku/Engram trio will be long gone by 2.06. (They went 1.07, 1.08 and 1.09, respectively in my TE+ league draft.)

Bottom line, don't let popular opinion influence you too much in a draft. Rookie picks, even 1st rounders, bust all the time. If there is someone you like better, I'd recommend shopping the pick, but if you can't get an offer you like, take the player you want and forget it. No one knows how any of these players will pan out, so don't be afraid to take your guy if he's available to you.

[KenAndTonic]

Not going to lie I have the 1.06 and am thinking of taking Howard for team in Sig. Just feel I need a tight end over another receiver.

Some might say that's crazy, but I get the point. The last few drafts I've missed on the 1st-tier RB's based on draft position and had to go WR as BPA. I don't think I'll take any WR's this year. Thankfully it's a deep class at RB and possibly the best ever class of TE's to come into the NFL at once. If it works out, that's what I'll be stocking up on.

It amazes me how many people seem to be overlooking this point about it being such a good TE class. I've seen multiple experts refer to Howard as potentially the best TE prospect in a generation. Williams is good, but he's hardly a generational talent. There will be plenty of quality WRs available next year and in years to come, the same can't be said for TEs. Yes, they take a little longer to develop, but that is typically my approach with any rookie pick anyway, regardless of position.

[jeffster]

This feels a lot like when fantasy football GMs tried to get too cute and let OBJ slip to the end of the 1st-early 2nd because of things that weren't likely to be long-term issues.

Williams is still 1.03-1.05 for me. I'd take one of Mixon/CMC in 12+ Team 2RB leagues, but would prefer Williams to Dalvin.

Williams was drafted #7 overall by a team that isn't afraid to air it out. Many thing it's a crowded situation, but all I see is Keenan Allen/Hunter Henry long-term. Gates is on his last legs, Tyrell's 2016 production probably had more to do with the situation he's in than his talent, and I don't think Benjamin/Inman/Herndon are anything special.

Not to mention the fact that Phillip Rivers is one of the few QBs who isn't afraid to throw it up and let his receiver go get it. Something tells me Williams going to the Chargers won't be viewed as a bad situation a year from now. Since 2009, Rivers has averaged 4,392 passing yards and 30 passing touch downs per season. Being paired up with a Brady/Brees/Rodgers may be flashier, but there are much worse offenses for a WR to to be drafted 7th overall into.

I second this. I actually managed to get OBJ during his first four injured weeks straight-up for Kadeem Carey from a Forte-owning Bears fan. Does that story fit Williams? I don't think we can say that conclusively, obviously, but there's definitely precedent.

[Cameron Giles]

This feels a lot like when fantasy football GMs tried to get too cute and let OBJ slip to the end of the 1st-early 2nd because of things that weren't likely to be long-term issues.

Yeah, but then after that there was White, Perriman, Treadwell, Doctson...

I still think Williams will be a good WR, but lately there have been more cases where injuries have derailed a rookie season than not.

[DJB]

Hasn't changed a thing in my eyes. I would consider him as early as 1.04

[cweds]

Currently sitting at 1.05 but I could move down to 1.06 for the 2.04. Team is in the sig and I could really use some youth at receiver. Is the drop from cook to Williams worth the 2.04 at this point?