Goff vs Osweiler

[Grimmer]

In 2QB league, I was offered Goff/2nd for my Osweiler/1st. Brock is my QB3 & I turned it down because swapping unknowns at a non-starter position doesn't seem a good use of myremaining '17 1st. What I'm wondering is what others think the value difference is between the two or just thoughts on them in general...

Goff obviously has the draft pedigree but they're saying he has a long way to go before he's ready & that Keenum may start the season.

Osweiler was up & down in DEN but Hopkins has made guys like Hoyer, Weeden, Mallet, etc look like respectable QBs. Plus they added Miller, Fuller, etc and O'Brien is considered a QB whisperer

[nabright]

If it was straight up, I'd probably take Brock. With the first involved, I'd take Goff.

[Steelersfan]

I prefer Goff to Oz.

[PhAiL_MeRrY]

If it was straight up, I'd probably take Brock. With the first involved, I'd take Goff.

x2

[Coogan Football]

If it was straight up, I'd probably take Brock. With the first involved, I'd take Goff.

Exactly, I'd much rather hold onto that 1st unless I would be getting a top-15 QB out of the deal.

[ninotoreS]

Goff > Os. Osweiler might be a low-end QB1 in time, but it's too optimistic to hope for more than that at this point. It's gonna take Goff a few years to get some weapons, but remember he's only 21. He's got time.

THAT SAID, you're saying you have to trade a 1st along with Os to get Goff and the 2nd? I don't think I like that. I don't know how it went down in your league, but Goff is gonna be a 2nd round pick in many 1QB league rookie-drafts this year, so that 1st you're giving up seems like the most valuable piece in the exchange. Are QBs significantly more valuable in 2QB leagues? I've never played in a 2QB league, but it seems to me like being able to start two of them every week just makes the fantasy production from that position easier to stablize, 'safer' when using non-elite talent.

[Grimmer]

Goff > Os. Osweiler might be a low-end QB1 in time, but it's too optimistic to hope for more than that at this point. It's gonna take Goff a few years to get some weapons, but remember he's only 21. He's got time.

THAT SAID, you're saying you have to trade a 1st along with Os to get Goff and the 2nd? I don't think I like that. I don't know how it went down in your league, but Goff is gonna be a 2nd round pick in many 1QB league rookie-drafts this year, so that 1st you're giving up seems like the most valuable piece in the exchange. Are QBs significantly more valuable in 2QB leagues? I've never played in a 2QB league, but it seems to me like being able to start two of them every week just makes the fantasy production from that position easier stablize, 'safer' when using non-elite talent.

Yes, QBs are significantly more valuable in 2Qb leagues. Last year, Winston & Mariota went 1-2 ahead of Gurley,Gordon, Cooper. This year, Zeke went 1st followed by Goff, Wentz, Lynch. Two years ago, top 3 picks were QBs as well. I got Osweiler for 1.6+2.12 this offseason.

[apti]

I'd take Goff over Osweiler straight up, but I'm not losing out on my 1st round pick (any year) for Goff. Even in a 2QB league.

[DrNoish]

I'd take Osweiler. I'm a big Goff fan, it's just too bad he went to a team that can't plan out throwing paper into a trash can.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I've seen nothing to indicate osweiler is any good. There have been articles written that he was even worse than his mediocre numbers would suggest. If you think the first would be late I would consider that for sure.

[RightlegTucker]

Goff is a much better prospect than Osweiler imo.

[vixen]

i agree that goff probably holds more long term value...
you could always try osweiler and 2nd for goff. if that doesn't work, i think i would keep the 1st and osweiler

[Grimmer]

Someone elsewhere brought up coaching influence, so I went back and looked...

Fisher's TEAM passing performances during his 20 full years as a head coach. He has had exactly ONE season where his team passed for over 4K yards (McNair[14], Volek[1], O'Donnell[1] in 2003 - 4031 yds/30 TD/9 INT). It was one of TWO seasons with > 24 TDs (other was 27 in 2004).

Average Passing offense: 294.8/499.3 - 3395.6 YDS - 19.3 TD - 14.3 INT

In comparison, Bill O'Brien has a smaller sample size of two years as a head coach. He has exactly ONE season where his team passed for over 4K yards (Hoyer[9], Mallett[4], Yates[2], Weeden[1] in 2015 - 4079 yds/29 TD/12 INT)

Average Passing offense: 326.5/552.0 - 3769.5 YDS - 25.5 TD - 12.5 INT

[ArrylT]

If this is a 2QB League then your 3rd QB is going to start at least twice (ie bye-weeks of QBS 1-2).

If the picks involved are 2017 picks, and you project your pick to be late, and theirs to be early, the basically you are moving back 4-6 spots to acquire Goff over Osweiler. Considering that many expect the 2017 draft to be pretty deep, you could still get a solid rookie in the early 2nd (ala 2014 draft). So I dont see that being a bad trade, and I personally like Goff over Osweiler, but since he is your 3rd QB and is basically a spot starter.

However you've rejected the deal, and I also think that is a good idea - while I like Goff over Osweiler long term, I do think Osweiler has more immediate value for your team, and you could conceivably flip him for Goff at a later date, perhaps at a better price, since his situation & weapons are better atm than Goffs.

[Grimmer]

However you've rejected the deal, and I also think that is a good idea - while I like Goff over Osweiler long term, I do think Osweiler has more immediate value for your team, and you could conceivably flip him for Goff at a later date, perhaps at a better price, since his situation & weapons are better atm than Goffs.

This is my thinking as well. Goff still has that "new car" smell and was taken at 1.02. I think he needs Fisher out to realize his potential, tho. Also, another lesser factor in my decision is that Osweiler's bye is week 9 and Goff's is week 8. My primary QBs are Brees (week 5 bye) and Roethlisberger (week 8). If I swapped for Goff, I'd actually lose one week of filler production.