Welker vs. Amendola

[kmbryant09]

Welker finds himself in a similar setup that he's always been in with the Patriots - lots of 3-WR formations, great offense, elite QB. But he'll probably share some of his targets with DThomas/Decker.

Amendola could be a poor man's Welker, but might also be in a slightly better situation (less targets on the outside). Problem is he can't stay healthy.

Who do you like better over the next few years? Obviously Amendola is a lot younger, but so much will change 3+ years from now with the possible retirement of Manning/Brady.

So who would you rather? How close are they?

[DAG]

Its difficult because with both going to a new team you never know how they mesh with them/QB. I can make a case going with either of them and since I am pretty risk adverse when it comes to injury, I take the youth in Amendola. And also, I could be wrong, but I am more confident in Brady's life shelf over Mannings. Oh and Amendola is not sharing balls with DT who is a beast.

[Team Tacos]

Yeah but the Patriots spread the ball around too much. I'm not confident in any Patriots player not named Brady or Welker.

I think that Welker will get more balls thrown his way next year (I've heard of the Broncos making the 3 receiver set their base look), but after that... who knows.

[RonW15]

Amendola missed 5 games last year.... prior to that he suffered 1 season ending injury.... people forget Welker also suffered a season ending injury. Amendola is more talented and will pretty much assume Welker's role. I think Welker can thrive in Denver but I'd give the edge to Amendola due to age

[kmbryant09]

Thanks for the feedback. I just don't understand the notion that "Amendola is more talented than Welker".

Amendola is a little bigger, but I don't think that works in his favor. Plus size matters on the outside when you're battling big, physical CB's. Plus size doesn't matter when you're working the middle of the field, making sharp/quick cuts, and trying to create separation based on footspeed + lateral agility.

People are entitled to their own opinions, but I firmly believe Welker is the premiere slot WR in the game. He's the quickest short-area player in the league, he simply creates more separation than anyone else because of this quick-twitch ability.

Don't get me wrong, Amendola is a similar player. And even saying that he's 90% of Welker's ability is a compliment. But what about him makes him better at his craft than what Welker does?

FWIW, I'm considering trading Amendola + 1.6 for Welker + 1.4.

[kmbryant09]

As for their situations, that's where I give Amendola the edge. It's pretty clear that the Patriots offense will continue to focus on the slot position, and Brady loves his security blanket. It remains to be seen if Amendola + Brady can develop the same chemistry that Welker/Brady had, but if they can, I think he can duplicate Welker's production, provided that he stays healthy.

Welker, on the other hand, will certainly be splitting targets with DThomas + E. Decker. Thomas had 141 targets last year, and I expect that number to remain the same in 2013. Decker saw 122 targets last year, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that number drop to 100-110. But Dreesen/Tamme saw a combined 143 targets (!) last season, and I expect that number to drop significantly, probably to ~90/100.

So if we take Stokley's 58 targets, and give add the targets lost by Decker (15) and the TE's (50), I could easily see Welker getting 125+ targets next year even in the crowded receiving corps in Denver. And with Manning & that prolific offense, I'd project 85/1100/7 on 125 targets for Welker.

And given Amendola's uncertainty (chemistry, injuries, and also splitting some looks with Hernandez/Gronk), I'm not confident that he'll be able to consistently top those numbers.

[RonW15]

Using the same argument Amendola of targets Amendola had 101 targets last year and posted 63/666/3
Welker had 175 targets, if Amendola takes Welker's place with Brady throwing the ball instead of Bradford I'd project
110/1150/6

[kmbryant09]

Using the same argument Amendola of targets Amendola had 101 targets last year and posted 63/666/3
Welker had 175 targets, if Amendola takes Welker's place with Brady throwing the ball instead of Bradford I'd project
110/1150/6

If Amendola plays 16 games and sees 175 targets, I'd have no problem projecting him for those type of numbers.

But Amendola has a history of injuries. Brady had a hard-on for Welker. And Brady gets BOTH Hernandez and Gronk back to full strength.

The whole exercise of trying to project Welker's targets was because that offense will change more to fit Welker's strengths than the Patriots' offense will change to fit Amendola's. Stokely only got 58 targets last year, but mostly/partly because he was more of a situational player at his age and missed parts of games with injuries. All of those targets will obviously go to Welker. Yes, Manning loves TE's, but 143 targets for the pedestrian Dreesen/Tamme combo just isn't going to duplicate itself. I'd guess that 40-50 of those targets (which come mostly over the middle of the field) will go to Welker.

[melish1631]

Welker because he stays on the field...Amendola seems brittle!

[RonW15]

Welker suffered a season ending injury too

[italian_stallion21]

Amendola is bigger, he's faster, has better hands (just look at drop rate) and is just a better receiver. When he's on the field that is. I think Welker's stats drop a little from last year as he's going to another elite QB, but if Amendola's healthy, he's the guy I want. Going from Bradford to Brady is going to be massive for him.