Chubb’s Situation (2019-2021)

[ajf235]

Nick Chubb looked like a star as a rookie, especially as a runner. If you take his per game average since the Carlos Hyde trade and apply it to a full season, Chubb would’ve finished with a line of 282-1,317-10/32-238-3, which is good for 248.3 half ppr points (or 15.5 ppg). Based on these figures, Chubb would’ve finished the season as the RB8.

However, his passing game usage and snap share is a bit of a concern as he only averaged 2 receptions per game and played a 57.6% snap share in the games he started. Now, plenty of backs have shown little receiving chops in year 1, only to have their receiving role significantly expanded as their career goes on (Todd Gurley and Marshawn Lynch are prime examples). Furthermore, Chubb’s catch rate was 71.4% in the games he started, which shows he can be a competent receiver if given the chance.

However, for the sake of discussion, let’s assume Chubb’s passing work and snap share stay similar after this year but the offense progresses as would be expected under Mayfield (who is a burgeoning star after breaking the rookie QB TD record).

Is the fact that Chubb is tied to a young rising star at QB enough to basically ensure (assuming both stay healthy), that Chubb’s low passing game usage won’t hold him back from finishing as a top 10 RB every year from 2019-2021 (assuming he stays healthy). I assume he’s a lock for 10-12 TDs per year at minimum with Mayfield at the helm, with 14-16 TDs being very attainable as well.

What do you all think?

[CGW]

He has shown he can make some great plays in the passing game, but the Browns are fortunate enough to have one of the best receiving RB in the NFL on the roster. Obviously as long as Duke is available they will use him in that way...thats why they paid him the extension this summer.

Being tied to a young rising offense shouldn't hurt. More goal line work to be had, less stacked boxes.

For now, i expect similar usage - the majority of the ground game with 30-40 catches. I'd also expect that to gradually increase as he grows with Mayfield. Once duke is gone, who knows?