Derrius Guice's Ceiling

[ajf235]

What does everything think Derrius Guice's ceiling is in 2019-2021?

I'm thinking it's something like Zeke or Marshawn Lynch. Thinking it's about 300-320 touches with 40-50 receptions for 1,500-1,800 total yards and 10-15 TDs annually is about his ceiling with his floor being Ronnie Brown or another RB who tore his ACL and never returned to full form. What are everyone's thoughts?

[Life of Pablo]

Idk. It's high

[Titans95]

Same thing I said for Chubb. It's pointless to try and project a ceiling for a player whose never played an NFL down let alone a full season. Let's just assume he's a top 10 rushing talent with unknown receiving capabilities that is playing behind a pretty solid O-line but not an elite overall offense. That could turn into 2,000 total scrimmage yards with 50 receptions or it could turn into 1200 scrimmage yards with 20 receptions. Who knows for now.

[ninotoreS]

All we can look at to guess at Guice's 'ceiling' is his talent (obviously), skillset, and team fit.

- His college-level talent and apparent pedigree are consistent with an early Day 2 pick.

- His skillset and style of running coming out of college is a bit like Marshawn Lynch, but with Zeke Elliot's build and athleticism (Lynch was a little bit bigger, a little bit meaner).

- The Redskins and their OC (Matt Cavanaugh) like to run the ball, and don't mind giving most of the carries to one running-back. If confirmation of that is needed, look at Adrian Peterson this year. Cavanaugh's prior stretch as an OC in the league (late 90s to mid-late 2000s) further support this.

- The last factor is the O-line. Washington's isn't great this year. 24th in ALY so far, which is about where they were last year, too.


So this paints an optimistic picture for Guice's prospects. He's not gonna be a plausible threat for 60+ receptions like a Barkley or David Johnson, but fortunately the Skins offense under Cavanaugh is a bit old-school and doesn't mind giving one power-back that's at least competent on passing-downs 20+ carries in a week. So provided Guice is indeed the starter next year and fully recovered, 250 carries is plausible. It's what they drafted him to do.

However, I don't see Washington's current O-line group being dominant enough to make it easy for Guice. So in that regard, his projection is held in check.

Obviously it's way too early for this to be final, but as of this moment, my projection for Guice in '19 is something like 256 carries for 1,126 yards, and 32 catches for 224 yards. I won't guess at the TDs, because that's so random, but Guice should get goal-line chances. How consistently week to week will depend upon how often the Washington offense overall can visit the red-zone.

[Duke Nuk’em]

Same thing I said for Chubb. It's pointless to try and project a ceiling for a player whose never played an NFL down let alone a full season. Let's just assume he's a top 10 rushing talent with unknown receiving capabilities that is playing behind a pretty solid O-line but not an elite overall offense. That could turn into 2,000 total scrimmage yards with 50 receptions or it could turn into 1200 scrimmage yards with 20 receptions. Who knows for now.

Another words. There's his ceiling and floor.