Penny vs Guice (WHY?)

[Dirty Mike&the Boys]

Rookie draft coming up tomorrow and I own 1.02. Very torn between Guice and Penny.

Guice - I think is a traditional NFL RB, runs between tackles, physical, and somewhat dynamic. Shares a backfield with Thompson who I don’t think will relinquish 3rd down duties.

Penny - seemed to be drafted a bit high by Seattle, which now shows commitment as he is a first rd pick. Looks like he could be a three down back, but is behind a horrible O-line (to be fair, so is Barkley...)

Who do you prefer, and more importantly, why? The why portion is what I haven’t seen a lot of on these forums concerning rookies. Given my team situation, it’s either QB or RB, trading back is not an option unfortunately.

I’m looking for reasurement from the community prior to my draft!!!

[Titans95]

I will choose Penny every time and I'll try to explain why the best I can.

A lot of people think you are supposed to draft talent over situation and to some degree that is true but when talent level is relatively close I think the situation weighs more heavily. People have been banging their fists on the table claiming Guice is far and away the most talented back in the draft class behind Barkley but while we all like to pretend we are scouting experts we are not close compared to real NFL scouts. If Guice is such a superior talent to Penny why was he drafted an entire round later after multiple other RB's come off the board between them? A lot of people will claim that its a character issue that Guice fell so far but there are no known cases of Guice having drug or partying problems or any type of domestic violence issue so at the most the character issue is he is immature. How many times do not just 1 but MULTIPLE teams pass on the "apparent" superior talent because of maturity issues...I don't think very often. With that being said a lot of people think the Seahawks reached for Penny but there are multiple reports that have come out that multiple teams trade to trade for Penny right after the Seahawks selected him which makes me believe it wasn't just a fluke that he Seahawks wanted him but multiple other teams believed he was a 1st round talent as well. I say all of this to explain why I think the groupthink in the dynasty community that Guice is far and away the superior talent is quite frankly wrong. I think they are extremely close in talent level and I think the draft proves that.

Now lets look at the actual situation. Penny is poised to be a bell cow back(300+ touches) and all reports from the GM and Pete Carrol have indicated they envision using him on all 3 downs. Guice on the other hand is a bonafide 1st and 2nd down bruiser and no one can deny that. The problem with that is ppr makes those receptions so much more valuable than rushes. Jay Gruden has already said he isn't worried about Guice in pass protection or his receiving ability because they have Thompson and have no reason to use him in those situations. Now as far as the O-line goes yes the Seahawks have a bad O-line but they also have Russell Wilson to keep the defenses honest and to keep their offense moving so I'm really not too worried about the O-line for Penny.

[Titans95]

Another thing about the draft....Its easy to assume certain franchises reached for players or look like they have no idea what they are doing in the draft but when a team like the Seahawks who have been dominant in recent years "reach" for a guy like Penny they certainly have a clear vision of what they see out of Penny and how by filling that positional need with Penny over other positions will work for them. Not saying it absolutely will or not but I'm just saying the Seahawks are a great organization and haven't made extremely dumb decisions like the Browns or Jets

[JJRules]

Penny for basically all the reasons Titans95 listed.


To expand on the situation aspect, here's today's Rotoworld update:

Redskins coach Jay Gruden said second-round RB Derrius Guice is "more of a first-, second-down banger."
Gruden added he thinks Guice has good enough hands, but his role will be on early downs as a rookie. "Really, our role for him is quite easy to see," Gruden said. "It’s first, second down." The comments are not surprising considering Guice was not routinely used as a receiver in college and Chris Thompson is one of the best passing-down backs in the league, but they are still disappointing. Without real usage in the passing game, Guice's fantasy value will be somewhat capped as a rookie.

[spotxc]

Neither, Sony Michel

[The dude]

I like Penny but i prefer Guice in Wash

[PBFalcon]

I wish people were following through with the WHY?, Because that is what has got me as well.
I am trying to figure out if a superior RB in a 2 down role including goal line work, is a better pick than a less skilled RB in a 3 down role including goal line work. How much will Penny's receiving work up his points for the season? Will Carson actually take the goal line work, he is suited well for it?
I am completely torn between the 2 at the moment. I like that Guice broke out at a younger age and is 2 years younger than Penny. I like that Guice played tougher competition. I don't like that Guice was the RB7 off the board and has no shot at a 3rd down role barring injury to Thompson. I do like that he has Alex Smith to direct his offense and keep defenses honest, and that he has 10+ TD potential this year.
For Penny, I do like that he has draft capital. I do like that his coaches want to get him involved as a receiver, but to what degree? Is he going to catch 5 balls a game for 50yds like David Johnson? At this point I would say this is a possibility. If so then with minimal rushing yards he will have a high floor every week. I don't like that Seattle had 1 rushing TD by a RB last year, so is 6-8 TDs for Penny's ceiling? I don't like they have spoke about using Penny is the return game. This isn't something you do with a workhorse RB. Signifies to me that there may be more of a split between him and Carson than we realize right now. I don't like that Penny did his damage against lesser opponents but he did beat Pumphreys per carry average by over a yard and score more TDs.

I don't have the answer yet as to who to pick. But if someone can answer these questions then it might help us decide.

[IR1]

I wish people were following through with the WHY?, Because that is what has got me as well.
I am trying to figure out if a superior RB in a 2 down role including goal line work, is a better pick than a less skilled RB in a 3 down role including goal line work. How much will Penny's receiving work up his points for the season? Will Carson actually take the goal line work, he is suited well for it?
I am completely torn between the 2 at the moment. I like that Guice broke out at a younger age and is 2 years younger than Penny. I like that Guice played tougher competition. I don't like that Guice was the RB7 off the board and has no shot at a 3rd down role barring injury to Thompson. I do like that he has Alex Smith to direct his offense and keep defenses honest, and that he has 10+ TD potential this year.
For Penny, I do like that he has draft capital. I do like that his coaches want to get him involved as a receiver, but to what degree? Is he going to catch 5 balls a game for 50yds like David Johnson? At this point I would say this is a possibility. If so then with minimal rushing yards he will have a high floor every week. I don't like that Seattle had 1 rushing TD by a RB last year, so is 6-8 TDs for Penny's ceiling? I don't like they have spoke about using Penny is the return game. This isn't something you do with a workhorse RB. Signifies to me that there may be more of a split between him and Carson than we realize right now. I don't like that Penny did his damage against lesser opponents but he did beat Pumphreys per carry average by over a yard and score more TDs.

I don't have the answer yet as to who to pick. But if someone can answer these questions then it might help us decide.

Not sure I have an answer either, actually have the same question about the rb class in general. A couple years ago it was always "talent over opportunity". Last year Hunt ends up in a great position and has a great year. I think that has inflated the value of some rb's this year so now opportunity equals talent. My gut still says go talent first but it's less clear than a couple years ago.

[Titans95]

I wish people were following through with the WHY?, Because that is what has got me as well.
I am trying to figure out if a superior RB in a 2 down role including goal line work, is a better pick than a less skilled RB in a 3 down role including goal line work. How much will Penny's receiving work up his points for the season? Will Carson actually take the goal line work, he is suited well for it?
I am completely torn between the 2 at the moment. I like that Guice broke out at a younger age and is 2 years younger than Penny. I like that Guice played tougher competition. I don't like that Guice was the RB7 off the board and has no shot at a 3rd down role barring injury to Thompson. I do like that he has Alex Smith to direct his offense and keep defenses honest, and that he has 10+ TD potential this year.
For Penny, I do like that he has draft capital. I do like that his coaches want to get him involved as a receiver, but to what degree? Is he going to catch 5 balls a game for 50yds like David Johnson? At this point I would say this is a possibility. If so then with minimal rushing yards he will have a high floor every week. I don't like that Seattle had 1 rushing TD by a RB last year, so is 6-8 TDs for Penny's ceiling? I don't like they have spoke about using Penny is the return game. This isn't something you do with a workhorse RB. Signifies to me that there may be more of a split between him and Carson than we realize right now. I don't like that Penny did his damage against lesser opponents but he did beat Pumphreys per carry average by over a yard and score more TDs.

I don't have the answer yet as to who to pick. But if someone can answer these questions then it might help us decide.

Is Guice really the superior back? The dynasty community has crowned him the unquestioned #2 RB according to talent but to be quite frank NONE of us are professional football scouts and while I don't the the NFL gets it right every time (kareem hunt in the 3rd round last year) should it not give us pause when not 1 but 6 different teams decided to go a different direction than Guice? While Penny was a 1st round pick and there have been reports that not 1 but MULTIPLE teams tried to trade for Penny AFTER the seahawks selected him. This tells me that their trade offers had to be within the realm of a 1st round pick + since the seahawks just set the price by spending the 27th pick on him. Now I'm not saying Penny is the better talent but what I am saying is that the NFL believes their talent is much much closer to each other than we as the dynasty community initially thought. Now, when talent level is relatively close does the situation they are in not become the deciding factor? Like you said Guice is stuck in a 1st and 2nd down role on a mediocre offensive-line and whether you are a fan of Alex smith or not it's hard to argue he isn't a step down from Kirk. Penny is also on a subpar O-line but he has arguably the 2nd or 3rd best QB in the NFL with Russell to keep defenses honest. Penny has absolutely ZERO competition for all 3 downs, you think Carson an UDFA who flashed in the preseason is going to be in a timeshare with a 1st round RB that they chose over multiple other needed positions? I don't think so. So that leaves us with Guice who will get 250ish carries with maybe 15 receptions compared to a guy who will get 250-300 carries plus 40-50 receptions. That is why I will choose Penny at the 1.02

[Tvols]

I like Guice simply better player .. Bette team , better o line, and imo they will be running the clock keep the likes of Odell, and philly off 5e field and also face weaker defenses outside of philly I take Guice here not that close

[lukkynumber13]

I choose Guice because I don't want a plodder who tested well.

[Cherokee]

Donnell Pumphrey running ahead of him
Leonard Fournette running ahead of him

[Titans95]

Donnell Pumphrey running ahead of him
Leonard Fournette running ahead of him

That's dumb logic....Jalen hurd running ahead of Kamara....Perine ahead of Mixon....the list could go on and on

[Cherokee]

Donnell Pumphrey running ahead of him
Leonard Fournette running ahead of him

That's dumb logic....Jalen hurd running ahead of Kamara....Perine ahead of Mixon....the list could go on and on

Thanks
Please go on...and on

[Titans95]

Donnell Pumphrey running ahead of him
Leonard Fournette running ahead of him

That's dumb logic....Jalen hurd running ahead of Kamara....Perine ahead of Mixon....the list could go on and on

Thanks
Please go on...and on

any running back thats didnt start until their jr/sr year. Hate on pumphrey all you want but he had 2,000 yards in college, why take him out of the game with that production? Of course it didn't work in the NFL but he's also 5'8 175 vs 5'11 220.