Tyreek Hill vs. Sammy Watkins

[M-Dub]

I own both of these guys, and ever since Sammy signed with KC, I’ve been trying to decide what, if anything, I need to do about that. The pipe dream scenario would obviously be that Mahomes just comes out blazing from day one and manages to make both of them fantasy relevant, while still feeding Kelce and Hunt their fair share of targets too. I think the far more likely scenario, though, is that any value one of them gains this year will be at the direct expense of the other.

I’m not not really asking which one is a more valuable dynasty asset. That’s Tyreek and it’s not very close. The debate I’m having with myself is which one of them I’d rather bet on long term in relation to their current value.

If you owned both of them, would you sell high on Tyreek or cash out low on Sammy? Or would you keep both of them, knowing that you’ll almost certainly lose value on one but you’re essentially guaranteed to have Mahomes’ favorite WR for the next few years?

[Forza_Azzurri]

I own both of these guys, and ever since Sammy signed with KC, I’ve been trying to decide what, if anything, I need to do about that. The pipe dream scenario would obviously be that Mahomes just comes out blazing from day one and manages to make both of them fantasy relevant, while still feeding Kelce and Hunt their fair share of targets too. I think the far more likely scenario, though, is that any value one of them gains this year will be at the direct expense of the other.

I’m not not really asking which one is a more valuable dynasty asset. That’s Tyreek and it’s not very close. The debate I’m having with myself is which one of them I’d rather bet on long term in relation to their current value.

If you owned both of them, would you sell high on Tyreek or cash out low on Sammy? Or would you keep both of them, knowing that you’ll almost certainly lose value on one but you’re essentially guaranteed to have Mahomes’ favorite WR for the next few years?

IMO, Sammy would be at the high point of his value while Tyreek is at a lower point in his value. Obviously, a lot changes after the season starts, and we see how targets are distributed. But if you sell now, Sammy’s relative value would be higher.

[M-Dub]

I own both of these guys, and ever since Sammy signed with KC, I’ve been trying to decide what, if anything, I need to do about that. The pipe dream scenario would obviously be that Mahomes just comes out blazing from day one and manages to make both of them fantasy relevant, while still feeding Kelce and Hunt their fair share of targets too. I think the far more likely scenario, though, is that any value one of them gains this year will be at the direct expense of the other.

I’m not not really asking which one is a more valuable dynasty asset. That’s Tyreek and it’s not very close. The debate I’m having with myself is which one of them I’d rather bet on long term in relation to their current value.

If you owned both of them, would you sell high on Tyreek or cash out low on Sammy? Or would you keep both of them, knowing that you’ll almost certainly lose value on one but you’re essentially guaranteed to have Mahomes’ favorite WR for the next few years?

IMO, Sammy would be at the high point of his value while Tyreek is at a lower point in his value. Obviously, a lot changes after the season starts, and we see how targets are distributed. But if you sell now, Sammy’s relative value would be higher.

Not sure I follow your logic. Sammy was the 1.01 or 1.02 in the majority of 2014 rookie drafts. His value has been in decline the past two years. He’s nowhere near the high point of his value. You’d be lucky to get a mid 1st for him at this point. And Tyreek’s value has never been higher than it is now. It’s certainly possible that it could climb even higher, but this is a guy who was on the waiver wire in most leagues a year and a half ago, so I don’t see how this is a lower point in his value.

[Titans95]

I own both of these guys, and ever since Sammy signed with KC, I’ve been trying to decide what, if anything, I need to do about that. The pipe dream scenario would obviously be that Mahomes just comes out blazing from day one and manages to make both of them fantasy relevant, while still feeding Kelce and Hunt their fair share of targets too. I think the far more likely scenario, though, is that any value one of them gains this year will be at the direct expense of the other.

I’m not not really asking which one is a more valuable dynasty asset. That’s Tyreek and it’s not very close. The debate I’m having with myself is which one of them I’d rather bet on long term in relation to their current value.

If you owned both of them, would you sell high on Tyreek or cash out low on Sammy? Or would you keep both of them, knowing that you’ll almost certainly lose value on one but you’re essentially guaranteed to have Mahomes’ favorite WR for the next few years?

IMO, Sammy would be at the high point of his value while Tyreek is at a lower point in his value. Obviously, a lot changes after the season starts, and we see how targets are distributed. But if you sell now, Sammy’s relative value would be higher.

Not sure I follow your logic. Sammy was the 1.01 or 1.02 in the majority of 2014 rookie drafts. His value has been in decline the past two years. He’s nowhere near the high point of his value. You’d be lucky to get a mid 1st for him at this point. And Tyreek’s value has never been higher than it is now. It’s certainly possible that it could climb even higher, but this is a guy who was on the waiver wire in most leagues a year and a half ago, so I don’t see how this is a lower point in his value.

I think he was saying that Sammy's value got a slight boost since he signed with the Chiefs compared to what it was after the seasons on the rams and Hill's value dipped because of the uncertainty with Sammy. I'll come out and say I'm biased and have been hanging on to Sammy for a while now but I really think he's got the better outlook going forward. Tyreek is a fantastic WR but clearly the Chiefs don't see him as a true WR1 on the team and thats why they felt the need to go out and get Sammy. Sammy is a prototypical WR1 body type and I think he'll play that role and command more targets while Tyreek stretches Defenses and runs a lot of screens and sweeps. Everyone is down on sammy and thats fair but in all reality his skills have always been there and still are. He was incredible in buffalo when he wasnt hurt and I don't think the rams gave him a fair shot, he was extremely efficient per target last year and actually got open quite often, it looked like he was consistently the 3rd or even 4th read on every play.

[Forza_Azzurri]

I own both of these guys, and ever since Sammy signed with KC, I’ve been trying to decide what, if anything, I need to do about that. The pipe dream scenario would obviously be that Mahomes just comes out blazing from day one and manages to make both of them fantasy relevant, while still feeding Kelce and Hunt their fair share of targets too. I think the far more likely scenario, though, is that any value one of them gains this year will be at the direct expense of the other.

I’m not not really asking which one is a more valuable dynasty asset. That’s Tyreek and it’s not very close. The debate I’m having with myself is which one of them I’d rather bet on long term in relation to their current value.

If you owned both of them, would you sell high on Tyreek or cash out low on Sammy? Or would you keep both of them, knowing that you’ll almost certainly lose value on one but you’re essentially guaranteed to have Mahomes’ favorite WR for the next few years?

IMO, Sammy would be at the high point of his value while Tyreek is at a lower point in his value. Obviously, a lot changes after the season starts, and we see how targets are distributed. But if you sell now, Sammy’s relative value would be higher.

Not sure I follow your logic. Sammy was the 1.01 or 1.02 in the majority of 2014 rookie drafts. His value has been in decline the past two years. He’s nowhere near the high point of his value. You’d be lucky to get a mid 1st for him at this point. And Tyreek’s value has never been higher than it is now. It’s certainly possible that it could climb even higher, but this is a guy who was on the waiver wire in most leagues a year and a half ago, so I don’t see how this is a lower point in his value.

The point I am making is that since the end of last year’s season, Sammy’s perceived value has increased due to the big contract he got, whereas, Hill’s perceived value has declined because he’s no longer the clear cut WR1. So if I were to trade one in the off-season, I would trade Sammy because his value is likely to decline and Hill’s is likely to go up once it’s determined who the Chiefs WR1 is going to be. If it were my team, I would not trade either until closer to the season ... just my $0.02.

[M-Dub]

Okay, that makes sense. I guess I was looking at it more in terms of my personal ROI, but also the likely ROI of anyone who owns both of them. I have more invested in Sammy than what I could get in return for him right now, and I have literally nothing invested in Tyreek beyond the roster spot he’s occupied since week 6 of 2016. So from that perspective, it’s tempting to dig in my heels on Sammy and try to trade Tyreek. Turning a FCFS waiver add into something like the 1.02 or 1.03+ would be an amazing ROI, even if Tyreek does go on to be the next AB.

I love Tyreek. He’s fun to watch and even more fun to have on your team. But I just have this sneaking suspicion that the wheels could fall off at any time. I also still believe in Sammy, and most of my leaguemates are even lower on him than consensus. You could also look at my Tyreek argument from the opposite perspective and say that no matter what he does moving forward, I already “won” by getting a WR1 season out of him, so even if I hold him and his value somehow drops to nothing, I still came out ahead.

I’m leaning towards just keeping them both. I’m looking to contend this year and if nothing else, they basically handcuff each other.