Julio vs. Michael Thomas

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Julio or Michael Thomas?

Julio
10
24%
Thomas
31
76%
 
Total votes: 41

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Titans95
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Re: Julio vs. Michael Thomas

Postby Titans95 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:18 pm

jtd1387 wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:20 am
Titans95 wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:46 pm
I'm leaning MT here for a couple reasons.

1. Age, MT is 25 vs Julio 29

2. While Brees is getting older I think he has 2 Solid years left and the way MT plays he'll be a new QB's best friend. He will be fed targets around the 10 yard line to move the chains

3. I think last year will be an anomaly for MT's TD production just like it was for Brees.

4. I don't think Julio is necessarily declining but he went from the best OC in the NFL to the WORST. Sarkisian is absolute trash, he took the best offense in the nfl and completely ruined it.
I thought that point was interesting. I think the odds of a receiver having only 3 TDs on 1444 yards are pretty low. Julio is due for a lot more positive TD regression than MT.
That is fair I should have mentioned Julio will probably have more TD's than 3 next year but Julio has been notorious for low TD totals throughout his career. I'm not sure why a athletic freak like julio who constantly puts up huge yardage totals just doesn't have a nose for the endzone but he doesn't. I think the most he has ever has was 9? but for the most part its been around 6. We only have 2 years of knowledge on MT and his TD production this past year could very well be his average but there's a possibility 8-10 is his average whereas we have years of julio putting up monster yardage totals but consistently lacking in the TD department.
TEAM 1: 12 Team PPR Dynasty 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex/1K/1Defense/1DL/1LB/1DB
QB: Dak Prescott, Andrew Luck
RB: Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Guice, Rashaad Penny, Jordan Howard Kenneth Dixon, Ty Montgomery, Roc Thomas, Trent Cannon
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins, Corey Davis, Anthony Miller, John Ross, Chris Godwin, DJ Moore
TE: Zach Ertz, Gerald Everrett, Trey Burton, Dallas Goedert
DL: Demarcus Lawrence
LB: Reuben Foster
DB: Keanu Neal

TEAM 2: 12 Superflex PPR 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/3Flex/1SuperFlex

QB: Wentz, Jimmy G, Ryan Tannehill, Brian Hoyer
RB: Mixon, Sony Michel, Duke Johnson, Austin Ekeler, Kenneth Dixon, Elijah McGuire, Christine Michael
WR: Davante Adams, Corey Davis, Sammy Watkins, Christian Kirk, James Washington, Anthony Miller, JJ Nelson, Tajea Sharpe, Snead, Cody Latimer, Braxton Miller
TE: Engram, Eifert, Kroft, Edd Dickson, Seth Devalve

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Re: Julio vs. Michael Thomas

Postby jtd1387 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:43 pm

Titans95 wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:18 pm
That is fair I should have mentioned Julio will probably have more TD's than 3 next year but Julio has been notorious for low TD totals throughout his career. I'm not sure why a athletic freak like julio who constantly puts up huge yardage totals just doesn't have a nose for the endzone but he doesn't. I think the most he has ever has was 9? but for the most part its been around 6. We only have 2 years of knowledge on MT and his TD production this past year could very well be his average but there's a possibility 8-10 is his average whereas we have years of julio putting up monster yardage totals but consistently lacking in the TD department.
Julio had 18 TDs his first 2 seasons, compared to Thomas with 14 on a lot more targets :shrug:. Maybe you are right, but I think TDs are pretty flukey. If we are projecting some sort of positive TD regression for Thomas based on his 1 other year in the league, we should apply the same principle to Julio when he had a freakishly low number on an otherwise dominant season.

My issue with Thomas is he got 28% of Brees' targets last year. That is unheard of for Brees' receivers, and shows what a gold mine spot he was in with Tedd Ginn and Kamara as the only other viable receiving threats on the offense (and I am using "viable" loosely with Ginn). The next closest guy to get a target share like that from Brees was Graham getting almost 23% one year when Colston, Sproles, and Moore all missed games. I don't think it's sustainable. Meredith and a likely high pick at WR or TE are probably going to make that hard to repeat, and I see his targets coming down.

I think it is pretty unlikely Thomas matches Julio over the next couple years, and with Brees likely gone at that point, I don't feel confident in a then 27-year-old MT being a better play than 31-year-old Julio.

So I guess that means I should be calling up the Julio owner in the league I have Thomas and seeing what he will add :D
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Re: Julio vs. Michael Thomas

Postby Titans95 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:50 pm

jtd1387 wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:43 pm
Titans95 wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:18 pm
That is fair I should have mentioned Julio will probably have more TD's than 3 next year but Julio has been notorious for low TD totals throughout his career. I'm not sure why a athletic freak like julio who constantly puts up huge yardage totals just doesn't have a nose for the endzone but he doesn't. I think the most he has ever has was 9? but for the most part its been around 6. We only have 2 years of knowledge on MT and his TD production this past year could very well be his average but there's a possibility 8-10 is his average whereas we have years of julio putting up monster yardage totals but consistently lacking in the TD department.
Julio had 18 TDs his first 2 seasons, compared to Thomas with 14 on a lot more targets :shrug:. Maybe you are right, but I think TDs are pretty flukey. If we are projecting some sort of positive TD regression for Thomas based on his 1 other year in the league, we should apply the same principle to Julio when he had a freakishly low number on an otherwise dominant season.

My issue with Thomas is he got 28% of Brees' targets last year. That is unheard of for Brees' receivers, and shows what a gold mine spot he was in with Tedd Ginn and Kamara as the only other viable receiving threats on the offense. The next closest guy to get a target share like that from Brees was Graham getting almost 23% one year when Colston, Sproles, and Moore all missed games. I don't think it's sustainable. Meredith and a likely high pick at WR or TE are probably going to make that hard to repeat, and I see his targets coming down.

I think it is pretty unlikely Thomas matches Julio over the next couple years, and with Brees likely gone at that point, I don't feel confident in a then 27-year-old MT being a better play than 31-year-old Julio.

So I guess that means I should be calling up the Julio owner in the league I have Thomas and seeing what he will add :D
After his first two years his TD totals were 2,6,8,6,3. Don't get me wrong I think he'll improve from 3 TD's this year but there's not really much reason to think he'll be in the 8-10 range. As for Thomas having a huge market share I think that was a result of how good MT really is and how much brees trusts him. His catch rate over the past two years is incredible, the guy catches everything thrown his way. I don't see how a rookie WR or even Meredith will take more targets from Thomas. and again I think the way Thomas plays around the 10-12 yards per catch and his catch rate is a new QB's dream. I dont think his production will just automatically drop off when brees is gone unless the rookie QB is a complete bust.
TEAM 1: 12 Team PPR Dynasty 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex/1K/1Defense/1DL/1LB/1DB
QB: Dak Prescott, Andrew Luck
RB: Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Guice, Rashaad Penny, Jordan Howard Kenneth Dixon, Ty Montgomery, Roc Thomas, Trent Cannon
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins, Corey Davis, Anthony Miller, John Ross, Chris Godwin, DJ Moore
TE: Zach Ertz, Gerald Everrett, Trey Burton, Dallas Goedert
DL: Demarcus Lawrence
LB: Reuben Foster
DB: Keanu Neal

TEAM 2: 12 Superflex PPR 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/3Flex/1SuperFlex

QB: Wentz, Jimmy G, Ryan Tannehill, Brian Hoyer
RB: Mixon, Sony Michel, Duke Johnson, Austin Ekeler, Kenneth Dixon, Elijah McGuire, Christine Michael
WR: Davante Adams, Corey Davis, Sammy Watkins, Christian Kirk, James Washington, Anthony Miller, JJ Nelson, Tajea Sharpe, Snead, Cody Latimer, Braxton Miller
TE: Engram, Eifert, Kroft, Edd Dickson, Seth Devalve

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Re: Julio vs. Michael Thomas

Postby jtd1387 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:27 pm

Titans95 wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:50 pm
After his first two years his TD totals were 2,6,8,6,3. Don't get me wrong I think he'll improve from 3 TD's this year but there's not really much reason to think he'll be in the 8-10 range.
He played 5 games the 3rd year so I think we can drop the year with 2 TDs. Otherwise, going into last year he had 8 or more TDs in 3 of 5 seasons. I think you are overplaying that narrative that Julio doesn't score TDs. He has the same ratio of 8-10 TD seasons in his career as Thomas. I see no reason to think he won't score at a similar or higher rate than Thomas. But who knows? As I said, TDs are flukey.
Titans95 wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:50 pm
As for Thomas having a huge market share I think that was a result of how good MT really is and how much brees trusts him. His catch rate over the past two years is incredible, the guy catches everything thrown his way.
I am confident saying Thomas didn't garner 5% more target share than Graham's best season because he is that much better than Graham was. And his catch rate is right in line with what Cooks and Graham had with Brees (Cooks had a bit lower catch rate and higher YPR). The catch rate is a product of being a good receiver playing with Brees, and the target share is a product of Ginn and Fleener being the mediocre WR2 and awful TE. I think you start with a clean slate when it is a new QB. I will have no idea what to expect from Thomas at that point, kind of like I have no idea what to expect from Cooks now with Goff. Gun to my head, I am more confident in Julio in the same situation at 31 over MT with who knows at QB at 27.
Titans95 wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:50 pm
I don't see how a rookie WR or even Meredith will take more targets from Thomas.
Meredith is probably better than Sneed. They've also been visiting with guys like Courtland Sutton and the top TEs pre-draft, so I think they are still trying to improve the other weapons in the passing game. I think that is going to affect Thomas' historically high target share from Brees. I am not sure how anyone thinks that sort of usage is sustainable when in Brees' 19-year career it has never come close to happening.
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Q: Cousins, Rosen, Bridgewater
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W: OBJ, Cooks, Fuller, John Brown, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams, John Ross, R. Anderson, Washington, Tay. Taylor
TE: Walker, Njoku, Uzomah
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Re: Julio vs. Michael Thomas

Postby Titans95 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:17 pm

jtd1387 wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:27 pm
Titans95 wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:50 pm
After his first two years his TD totals were 2,6,8,6,3. Don't get me wrong I think he'll improve from 3 TD's this year but there's not really much reason to think he'll be in the 8-10 range.
He played 5 games the 3rd year so I think we can drop the year with 2 TDs. Otherwise, going into last year he had 8 or more TDs in 3 of 5 seasons. I think you are overplaying that narrative that Julio doesn't score TDs. He has the same ratio of 8-10 TD seasons in his career as Thomas. I see no reason to think he won't score at a similar or higher rate than Thomas. But who knows? As I said, TDs are flukey.
Titans95 wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:50 pm
As for Thomas having a huge market share I think that was a result of how good MT really is and how much brees trusts him. His catch rate over the past two years is incredible, the guy catches everything thrown his way.
I am confident saying Thomas didn't garner 5% more target share than Graham's best season because he is that much better than Graham was. And his catch rate is right in line with what Cooks and Graham had with Brees (Cooks had a bit lower catch rate and higher YPR). The catch rate is a product of being a good receiver playing with Brees, and the target share is a product of Ginn and Fleener being the mediocre WR2 and awful TE. I think you start with a clean slate when it is a new QB. I will have no idea what to expect from Thomas at that point, kind of like I have no idea what to expect from Cooks now with Goff. Gun to my head, I am more confident in Julio in the same situation at 31 over MT with who knows at QB at 27.
Titans95 wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:50 pm
I don't see how a rookie WR or even Meredith will take more targets from Thomas.
Meredith is probably better than Sneed. They've also been visiting with guys like Courtland Sutton and the top TEs pre-draft, so I think they are still trying to improve the other weapons in the passing game. I think that is going to affect Thomas' historically high target share from Brees. I am not sure how anyone thinks that sort of usage is sustainable when in Brees' 19-year career it has never come close to happening.
I don't know man I think both are great. But cooks had a catch rate of 66% while Thomas has a Catch rate of 70% and 75% over the last two years...What that tells me is Brees isn't force feeding Thomas the ball, Thomas is just constantly getting open or making plays that brees trust he'll make so he tosses him the ball. If he had a catch rate of 55% like Hopkins did last year I'd understand the argument that they were forcing him the ball and it will probably go down. Why would less targets go to Michael Thomas when he is more efficient as any WR getting that amount of targets. Its not like he's getting 200 targets a year, 150 is very reasonable for a WR1. On top of that the saints offensive is completely different to anything brees has dealt with before. He's throwing the ball way less and the offense is going through the run game not brees chucking the ball 50 times. It makes since that the reduced targets are going to affect the lesser receivers on the team like their TE and Ginn.
TEAM 1: 12 Team PPR Dynasty 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex/1K/1Defense/1DL/1LB/1DB
QB: Dak Prescott, Andrew Luck
RB: Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Guice, Rashaad Penny, Jordan Howard Kenneth Dixon, Ty Montgomery, Roc Thomas, Trent Cannon
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins, Corey Davis, Anthony Miller, John Ross, Chris Godwin, DJ Moore
TE: Zach Ertz, Gerald Everrett, Trey Burton, Dallas Goedert
DL: Demarcus Lawrence
LB: Reuben Foster
DB: Keanu Neal

TEAM 2: 12 Superflex PPR 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/3Flex/1SuperFlex

QB: Wentz, Jimmy G, Ryan Tannehill, Brian Hoyer
RB: Mixon, Sony Michel, Duke Johnson, Austin Ekeler, Kenneth Dixon, Elijah McGuire, Christine Michael
WR: Davante Adams, Corey Davis, Sammy Watkins, Christian Kirk, James Washington, Anthony Miller, JJ Nelson, Tajea Sharpe, Snead, Cody Latimer, Braxton Miller
TE: Engram, Eifert, Kroft, Edd Dickson, Seth Devalve

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Re: Julio vs. Michael Thomas

Postby Titans95 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:21 pm

Also I am very confident MT garnering more targets than Graham because he's better. a top talent WR1 on a team will always garner more targets than a top TE. its a totally different position. An Elite year for a TE is to have 80 Rec and 1,000 yards...the standard is wayyyyy lower than for WR. WR get targeted more.
TEAM 1: 12 Team PPR Dynasty 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex/1K/1Defense/1DL/1LB/1DB
QB: Dak Prescott, Andrew Luck
RB: Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Guice, Rashaad Penny, Jordan Howard Kenneth Dixon, Ty Montgomery, Roc Thomas, Trent Cannon
WR: OBJ, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins, Corey Davis, Anthony Miller, John Ross, Chris Godwin, DJ Moore
TE: Zach Ertz, Gerald Everrett, Trey Burton, Dallas Goedert
DL: Demarcus Lawrence
LB: Reuben Foster
DB: Keanu Neal

TEAM 2: 12 Superflex PPR 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/3Flex/1SuperFlex

QB: Wentz, Jimmy G, Ryan Tannehill, Brian Hoyer
RB: Mixon, Sony Michel, Duke Johnson, Austin Ekeler, Kenneth Dixon, Elijah McGuire, Christine Michael
WR: Davante Adams, Corey Davis, Sammy Watkins, Christian Kirk, James Washington, Anthony Miller, JJ Nelson, Tajea Sharpe, Snead, Cody Latimer, Braxton Miller
TE: Engram, Eifert, Kroft, Edd Dickson, Seth Devalve

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Re: Julio vs. Michael Thomas

Postby jtd1387 » Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:16 pm

Titans95 wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:21 pm
Also I am very confident MT garnering more targets than Graham because he's better. a top talent WR1 on a team will always garner more targets than a top TE. its a totally different position. An Elite year for a TE is to have 80 Rec and 1,000 yards...the standard is wayyyyy lower than for WR. WR get targeted more.
I don't think you are remembering the Graham-Saints years accurately. Graham was used almost exactly like Thomas was used as a rookie. He was a WR in everything but title.

To the other point, Cooks catch rate was a lower because his ypr was higher like I pointed out. The year Cooks had a YPR around 10-11 like Thomas was the year he had a catch rate in the 70s.

Brees spreads the ball around. The first year he didn't was the year he had junk outside of his WR1. I think that's why Thomas got a way larger share than any player ever had with Brees. I don't see any way they continues.

But if you're confident it will I'd be happy to bet a year DLF subscription that his target share drops back under 25% in 2018 AND Julio outscores him. Whatdya say? :mrgreen:
Oldest- 12tm PPR QRRWWWT (est. 2000)
Q: Cousins, Rosen, Bridgewater
R: Zeke, Kamara, Henry, Chubb, Ito, McGuire, Richard
W: OBJ, Cooks, Fuller, John Brown, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams, John Ross, R. Anderson, Washington, Tay. Taylor
TE: Walker, Njoku, Uzomah
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