Alvin Kamara Regression

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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby joeya2001 » Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:10 am

Ill be sure to bump this where hes not anywhere near what he did last year!!

but you will still get...hes still top 20!!!
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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby Titans95 » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:49 am

James McGhee wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:08 am People hyping Kamara as the next stud RB are going to be disappointed. We've already seen his ceiling. He's not going to be as efficient as he was in '17 with more touches. That's just pure fantasy driven by this absurd desire for bell cow running backs. We need more cow bells! I mean bell cows.

Buy if you want but an unrealistic and borderline impossible ceiling has been fantasized and cooked into his price already. "He's better than Ingram" "He's going to get more touches" "Imagine if you project his efficiency to 250 touches!"

Good luck.
My argument isn't that he has already reached his ceiling, my argument is that he has the physical build to handle more touches than he received as a rookie last year and I believe the saints will give him more touches and based on what he did last year and he has so much room to regress back down to a realistic yards per touch that it will even out to around 280-300 ppr fantasy points just like he scored this year. There is no way he averages 7.7 yards per touch but I am saying that the dude is special with the ball in his hands and think his career average yards per touch will be in the elite tier of efficiency as long as he stays on that dynamic saints team who clearly know how to get the most out of him.

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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby Madadamus » Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:16 pm

As others have said in this thread, the regression will most certainly come because it has to.

The situation is great. The thing is, just because his yards per touch comes down, doesn't mean he can't be a rock solid RB1. A guy like Christian McCaffrey was an RB1, and so was Duke Johnson, because of their reception totals.

If he catches 70-80 balls a year, he literally is an RB2 with 0 rushing yards. Add in a bare minimum 500+ yards on the ground and a few TD's if we only expect him to be a 10+ carry guy and he's going to be RB6-10 on a yearly basis.

If he ever got volume, say 15 carries a game, you are looking at a floor of 300 points which is basically what he put up last year.
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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby Mjvb5 » Mon Apr 02, 2018 3:11 pm

Madadamus wrote: Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:16 pm As others have said in this thread, the regression will most certainly come because it has to.

The situation is great. The thing is, just because his yards per touch comes down, doesn't mean he can't be a rock solid RB1. A guy like Christian McCaffrey was an RB1, and so was Duke Johnson, because of their reception totals.

If he catches 70-80 balls a year, he literally is an RB2 with 0 rushing yards. Add in a bare minimum 500+ yards on the ground and a few TD's if we only expect him to be a 10+ carry guy and he's going to be RB6-10 on a yearly basis.

If he ever got volume, say 15 carries a game, you are looking at a floor of 300 points which is basically what he put up last year.
Exactly this, in PPR I'm fine with projecting a regression
let's say he gets the same usage as last year, we knock 1.5YPC off of his average down to a more reasonable 4.5 and take off 3 TDs to bring him to ten total. I feel like we can all agree that this is a pretty fair and reasonable expectation maybe erring on the side of caution with giving him an averageish YPC and no extra touches.
120 rushes @ 4.5= 540 yard=54pts
10 total TDs= 60pts
81 receptions= 81 pts
750 receiving yards=75pts
270pts or 16.9 PPG

this would put him as the RB8 overall with accounting for IMO a very reasonable regression amount and not projecting additional touches as well, if I can get a guy that is a top 10 RB for a long time due to getting very low amounts of wear and tear on his body and having skill set that projects well into a later career (Woody and Sproles) I feel comfortable with his current value

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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby ErecSean85 » Fri Apr 06, 2018 9:20 pm

James McGhee wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:08 am People hyping Kamara as the next stud RB are going to be disappointed. We've already seen his ceiling. He's not going to be as efficient as he was in '17 with more touches. That's just pure fantasy driven by this absurd desire for bell cow running backs. We need more cow bells! I mean bell cows.

Buy if you want but an unrealistic and borderline impossible ceiling has been fantasized and cooked into his price already. "He's better than Ingram" "He's going to get more touches" "Imagine if you project his efficiency to 250 touches!"


Good luck.
Kamara easily gets 20% more touches next year. 120 caries last year is criminally low. The saints know what they have. I would be shocked if he didn’t average 11 carries a game. Which puts him at 171carries and I see no reason he can’t catch another 70 + next year. That’s 241 touches, a 20% increase. Even if his efficiency drops 25% (which is probably likely), he’s still a top 10 RB

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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby pierson242 » Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:09 am

He had more receiving yards than he did rushing, and had multiple games where he saw 1 rushing attempt. Hes a rich mans Duke Johnson. Do I like Kamara, yes! Is he good, hes damn good. But hes not a 3 down back like a Gurley, Zeke, Bell, or DJ. Hes a pass catching back which is great for PPR but I think he regresses with both TDs and ypa and ends up being around a RB2 fringe RB1. But if hes the RB1 on my team id be a little nervous.
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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby Dr. Trades » Sun Apr 08, 2018 7:07 am

Space Cowboy wrote: Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:11 am Honestly, I feel like he was just so incredibly good last year that people are just expecting a natural regression. Not because of size or talent, just because the NFL isn't supposed to be that easy. He did it all and was silky smooth.
This is my general thought as well. He's in a good situation for him, so hypothetically suggesting he wouldn't do what he did on another team is a moot point. He's talented, but he's not the second coming of the top 5 studs we have in the league right now. Agreed with the general consensus that he was likely at his ceiling already this past season, and as such I'm not trading for him because you have to pay top dollar for a guy who is still in a timeshare and simply likely won't sustain his production from last year over the next 5 years, which is what you'd be paying for to get him.
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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby Vcize » Sun Apr 08, 2018 3:29 pm

James McGhee wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:08 am People hyping Kamara as the next stud RB are going to be disappointed. We've already seen his ceiling. He's not going to be as efficient as he was in '17 with more touches. That's just pure fantasy driven by this absurd desire for bell cow running backs. We need more cow bells! I mean bell cows.

Buy if you want but an unrealistic and borderline impossible ceiling has been fantasized and cooked into his price already. "He's better than Ingram" "He's going to get more touches" "Imagine if you project his efficiency to 250 touches!"

Good luck.
Who are you talking to here? No one is saying that.

I am not a Kamara fan and am trying to trade him in the league where I have him. But I'm pretty sure the people arguing in favor of him expect his efficiency to drop and are hoping that his workload may increase to balance that out some and keep his overall scoring relatively similar to where it was last year.

But if you're arguing that he's not going to have 400 touches at the same efficiency for 3080 yards and 25 TDs then congratulations I guess, you just won an argument against no one.
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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby Vcize » Sun Apr 08, 2018 3:36 pm

BusinessIsBoomin wrote: Sun Apr 08, 2018 7:07 am
Space Cowboy wrote: Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:11 am Honestly, I feel like he was just so incredibly good last year that people are just expecting a natural regression. Not because of size or talent, just because the NFL isn't supposed to be that easy. He did it all and was silky smooth.
This is my general thought as well. He's in a good situation for him, so hypothetically suggesting he wouldn't do what he did on another team is a moot point. He's talented, but he's not the second coming of the top 5 studs we have in the league right now. Agreed with the general consensus that he was likely at his ceiling already this past season, and as such I'm not trading for him because you have to pay top dollar for a guy who is still in a timeshare and simply likely won't sustain his production from last year over the next 5 years, which is what you'd be paying for to get him.
Do you?

It seems like people are so busy arguing that he's not a top 5 dynasty asset that they've failed to notice that he's not being valued as a top 5 dynasty asset.

I've been trying to sell him in the league I have him without much success. I first tried moving him alongside a mid-1st for an elite RB like Zeke or Gurley, no dice. Then I tried moving him straight up for 1.1. No luck. The best offer I've gotten for him is 1.6+1.11. Meh.

He's a 22 year old running back who just finished as the #3 overall fantasy player and has an ADP right on the cusp of the 2nd round in startup drafts. So when people are saying "it's crazy to move top 5 value for him, his efficiency will regress" that's not really news to anyone. He's already not commanding top 5 value and a regression is already built into his value.
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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby Titans95 » Mon Apr 09, 2018 5:19 am

Vcize wrote: Sun Apr 08, 2018 3:36 pm
BusinessIsBoomin wrote: Sun Apr 08, 2018 7:07 am
Space Cowboy wrote: Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:11 am Honestly, I feel like he was just so incredibly good last year that people are just expecting a natural regression. Not because of size or talent, just because the NFL isn't supposed to be that easy. He did it all and was silky smooth.
This is my general thought as well. He's in a good situation for him, so hypothetically suggesting he wouldn't do what he did on another team is a moot point. He's talented, but he's not the second coming of the top 5 studs we have in the league right now. Agreed with the general consensus that he was likely at his ceiling already this past season, and as such I'm not trading for him because you have to pay top dollar for a guy who is still in a timeshare and simply likely won't sustain his production from last year over the next 5 years, which is what you'd be paying for to get him.
Do you?

It seems like people are so busy arguing that he's not a top 5 dynasty asset that they've failed to notice that he's not being valued as a top 5 dynasty asset.

I've been trying to sell him in the league I have him without much success. I first tried moving him alongside a mid-1st for an elite RB like Zeke or Gurley, no dice. Then I tried moving him straight up for 1.1. No luck. The best offer I've gotten for him is 1.6+1.11. Meh.

He's a 22 year old running back who just finished as the #3 overall fantasy player and has an ADP right on the cusp of the 2nd round in startup drafts. So when people are saying "it's crazy to move top 5 value for him, his efficiency will regress" that's not really news to anyone. He's already not commanding top 5 value and a regression is already built into his value.
I've had similar issues but on the other end trying to acquire him. I've offered MT or Keenan for him and got rejected with no counter, I offered Gordon for him and got some thought but got rejected in the end. It seems Kamara is a guy owners aren't willing to trade unless that get a Gurley/Zeke/Bell in return and other owners aren't willing to pay that top 5 price tag so he probably hasn't been moved from many teams this offseason.

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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby smoppelpoppel » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:23 am

Space Cowboy wrote: Sat Mar 24, 2018 9:11 am Honestly, I feel like he was just so incredibly good last year that people are just expecting a natural regression. Not because of size or talent, just because the NFL isn't supposed to be that easy. He did it all and was silky smooth.
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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby Orenthal Shames » Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:36 am

Madadamus wrote: Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:16 pm As others have said in this thread, the regression will most certainly come because it has to.

The situation is great. The thing is, just because his yards per touch comes down, doesn't mean he can't be a rock solid RB1. A guy like Christian McCaffrey was an RB1, and so was Duke Johnson, because of their reception totals.

If he catches 70-80 balls a year, he literally is an RB2 with 0 rushing yards. Add in a bare minimum 500+ yards on the ground and a few TD's if we only expect him to be a 10+ carry guy and he's going to be RB6-10 on a yearly basis.

If he ever got volume, say 15 carries a game, you are looking at a floor of 300 points which is basically what he put up last year.
You quite literally took the words out of my mouth.

70-80 reception RBs aren't easy to find. That alone gives him such a safe floor with huge upside potential if steady carries come as well.
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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:17 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:21 am
Rkerr8 wrote: Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:52 am Why are so many people convinced kamara will regress in 2018? Peoples only argument is that there is no away he will sustain 7.7 yards per touch. He consistently made all pro players look average at best all year long. He may not have 7.7 yards per touch next season but he is clearly in that Jamaal Charles type of efficiency for the rest of his career IMO. On top of that I don't think people realize but Kamara is actually BIGGER than Kareem Hunt and Dalvin Cook. There's no reason not to think he can carry the rock 200-250 times per year. Ingram began to seem fewer and fewer snaps towards the end of the year, all the way to the point I think it was something like 65/35% in kamara's favor in the playoffs. If he carries the ball within that range and still catches the ball 80 times a year now all of a sudden we are looking at Gurley, DJ, and Bell level of production even if his yards per touch come down to 6 or 5.5.

Thoughts?
That's up for debate as well. Also, guys like Gurley, Lev Bell and DJ were below type backs in college. Kamara never carried the ball more than 107 times in college. He may be able to carry the ball like these guys, but he may not be able to. We haven't seen it.
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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:44 am

James McGhee wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:08 am People hyping Kamara as the next stud RB are going to be disappointed. We've already seen his ceiling. He's not going to be as efficient as he was in '17 with more touches. That's just pure fantasy driven by this absurd desire for bell cow running backs. We need more cow bells! I mean bell cows.

Buy if you want but an unrealistic and borderline impossible ceiling has been fantasized and cooked into his price already. "He's better than Ingram" "He's going to get more touches" "Imagine if you project his efficiency to 250 touches!"

Good luck.
My condolences on drafting Perine over him. I too made that mistake in some leagues.

In all seriousness, you are battling an army of strawmen here. So we've seen Kamara's ceiling? Great! I love RBs with top 3 RB ceilings.
I've never seen anyone argue that Kamara will keep his efficiency on more touches. I have just seen lots of people argue against people supposedly arguing that.
I am excited about Kamara because he's good and he is going to get more touches, I would guess around a 30% increase in carries from last season to around 10 per game (which is what he was seeing from week 13 on).
He doesn't need to get bell-cow touches because he will get the 100ish targets that he/Bush/ Sproles have always received in that role.
He doesn't need otherworldly efficiency because 10 carries a game+6 targets a game+ above average efficiency still gives you a recipe for a top 10 RB with top 3 upside.

But if he DOES keep that rookie efficiency on more touches... :surprised:
Kidding :biggrin:

I give you full points for the SNL reference. Well played!
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Re: Alvin Kamara Regression

Postby Mjvb5 » Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:20 pm

jtd1387 wrote: Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:44 am
James McGhee wrote: Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:08 am People hyping Kamara as the next stud RB are going to be disappointed. We've already seen his ceiling. He's not going to be as efficient as he was in '17 with more touches. That's just pure fantasy driven by this absurd desire for bell cow running backs. We need more cow bells! I mean bell cows.

Buy if you want but an unrealistic and borderline impossible ceiling has been fantasized and cooked into his price already. "He's better than Ingram" "He's going to get more touches" "Imagine if you project his efficiency to 250 touches!"

Good luck.
My condolences on drafting Perine over him. I too made that mistake in some leagues.

In all seriousness, you are battling an army of strawmen here. So we've seen Kamara's ceiling? Great! I love RBs with top 3 RB ceilings.
I've never seen anyone argue that Kamara will keep his efficiency on more touches. I have just seen lots of people argue against people supposedly arguing that.
I am excited about Kamara because he's good and he is going to get more touches, I would guess around a 30% increase in carries from last season to around 10 per game (which is what he was seeing from week 13 on).
He doesn't need to get bell-cow touches because he will get the 100ish targets that he/Bush/ Sproles have always received in that role.
He doesn't need otherworldly efficiency because 10 carries a game+6 targets a game+ above average efficiency still gives you a recipe for a top 10 RB with top 3 upside.

But if he DOES keep that rookie efficiency on more touches... :surprised:
Kidding :biggrin:

I give you full points for the SNL reference. Well played!
yep 10 carries for 45 yards and then 4 receptions for another 40 yards and 1/2 an all purpose TD a week equates to roughly 15.5 points as a floor, I'd be pretty fricken happy with that


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