Buying Luck

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psu007
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Buying Luck

Postby psu007 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:33 am

So what is Andrew Luck's value right now? If you were trying to buy Luck, what do you feel comfortable paying without knowing the full extent of his injury going forward?
Team 1 - 12 Team, PPR, All 6TD

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, K, D

QB - Cousins, Mayfield, Kelly, McCarron, Foles
RB - Elliot, McKinnon, Penny, Michel, Miller, E.McGuire, Foreman, Sims, Ekeler, C.Clement
WR - OBJ, Robinson, K.Allen, C.Davis, M.Bryant, C.Coleman, Moncrief, R.Anderson, P.Richardson, Chark
TE - Reed, Brate, Gathers, Shaheen, Seals-Jones
K - Jake Elliott
D - NE
Picks - 2019: 2-5

Team 2 - 12 Team, SF 0.5 PPR, 4/6TD

1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1SF, 1FLEX, 1TE

QB - Cousins, Goff, Tannehill, Mayfield, Jackson
RB - Gurley, Ingram, Coleman, Clement, Booker, Rawls
WR - Hilton, Fuller, Moore, Byrant, Locket, Moncrief, Rogers, Taylor, Miller, St.Brown,
TE - Gesicki, Clay, McDonald, Andrews
Picks - 2019: 1-5

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JJRules
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby JJRules » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:35 am

Owners who have held him for this long aren't likely to sell for anything less than his peak value as we largely expect him to return to form.

I'm not sure how many buyers would be willing to pay that given his injuries, but it's probably what it will cost.
10-team ESPN standard, 16-man rosters
2010, 2015 champ, 2013 runner-up
Keep any number of players (0-16), lose corresponding number of draft picks

QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, FLEX, D/ST, K

QB: Watson, Luck
RB: Cook, McKinnon, Foreman, A Jones, Mack
WR: Adams, Julio, ARob, Fuller, Davis, Meredith
TE: Howard, Henry
D/ST: JAX
K:

psu007
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby psu007 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:36 am

What was peak cost, roughly current Rodgers or Wentz value?
Team 1 - 12 Team, PPR, All 6TD

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, K, D

QB - Cousins, Mayfield, Kelly, McCarron, Foles
RB - Elliot, McKinnon, Penny, Michel, Miller, E.McGuire, Foreman, Sims, Ekeler, C.Clement
WR - OBJ, Robinson, K.Allen, C.Davis, M.Bryant, C.Coleman, Moncrief, R.Anderson, P.Richardson, Chark
TE - Reed, Brate, Gathers, Shaheen, Seals-Jones
K - Jake Elliott
D - NE
Picks - 2019: 2-5

Team 2 - 12 Team, SF 0.5 PPR, 4/6TD

1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1SF, 1FLEX, 1TE

QB - Cousins, Goff, Tannehill, Mayfield, Jackson
RB - Gurley, Ingram, Coleman, Clement, Booker, Rawls
WR - Hilton, Fuller, Moore, Byrant, Locket, Moncrief, Rogers, Taylor, Miller, St.Brown,
TE - Gesicki, Clay, McDonald, Andrews
Picks - 2019: 1-5

psu007
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby psu007 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:00 am

On the flip side, I'm trying to decide what feels reasonable given the uncertainty, so from a buyers perspective. The Luck owner in my league seems receptive to moving him and I don't get the sense he's looking for peak value.
Team 1 - 12 Team, PPR, All 6TD

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE, K, D

QB - Cousins, Mayfield, Kelly, McCarron, Foles
RB - Elliot, McKinnon, Penny, Michel, Miller, E.McGuire, Foreman, Sims, Ekeler, C.Clement
WR - OBJ, Robinson, K.Allen, C.Davis, M.Bryant, C.Coleman, Moncrief, R.Anderson, P.Richardson, Chark
TE - Reed, Brate, Gathers, Shaheen, Seals-Jones
K - Jake Elliott
D - NE
Picks - 2019: 2-5

Team 2 - 12 Team, SF 0.5 PPR, 4/6TD

1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1SF, 1FLEX, 1TE

QB - Cousins, Goff, Tannehill, Mayfield, Jackson
RB - Gurley, Ingram, Coleman, Clement, Booker, Rawls
WR - Hilton, Fuller, Moore, Byrant, Locket, Moncrief, Rogers, Taylor, Miller, St.Brown,
TE - Gesicki, Clay, McDonald, Andrews
Picks - 2019: 1-5

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lukkynumber13
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby lukkynumber13 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:16 am

You might be able to get Luck for a safer but low-upside QB like Cousins, Goff, Ryan, or Stafford
T1
LUCK, Flacco, J Allen, Brissett
MIXON, Ajayi, Collins, Yeldon, Chase E, R Smith, Jon Williams
KA/EVANS/DIGGS/HILTON/THIELEN, Sammy, C Davis, A Miller, Sanu, Tre'Quan, Terrance W, Bourne, Hansen, Fountain, Marshall
GRONK, Shaheen, Watson, Walford
-
DL: FLOWERS/HUGHES/ADDISON, Golden, Short, Okafor, Sheard, Malik J, Wolfe
LB: KENDRICKS/WILLIAMSON/ZACH C, Schobert, R. Evans, Warner, Onwuasor, Young, Milano, DJ, Ford
DB: ADDAE/AMOS/FARLEY, Simmons, John J, Heath, Maye

T2
JIMMY G, Rivers, Eli
GURLEY/GORDON/MIXON, Guice, Ajayi, Wilkins, Chase E, McNichols
NUK/AJG/DIGGS/DT, Crabtree, Sanders, Shepard, P-Rich, Sanu, Hogan, Pryor, J'Mon, JMatt, J Scott
ENGRAM, Doyle, Higbee, Vance, Everett, Swaim
-
DL: GRIFFEN/BUCKNER/HEYWARD, Golden, Short, Wilkerson, Wolfe, Ogbah, Spence
LB: KENDRICKS/BURFICT/DANNY T/HITCHENS/KJW, Leonard, Hicks, Warner, Ford, Goodson
DB: TAVON/POYER/JOHN J, Farley, Geathers, Maye, McLeod, Quandre, D Everett

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Blueboy
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby Blueboy » Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:03 pm

He was nearby Rodgers in startup ADP last year. I imagine now he's closer to Mariota or Stafford, which seems fair to me.
The Guy Is Drunk: 36 team Superflex, 3-copy. Tiered PPR.
1QB 1RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Rodgers, Ryan, Mayfield, McCown
RB: McCoy, Ajayi, Abdullah, Darkwa, McGuire, F. Gore, Hill, Pumphrey
WR: Hopkins, TY Hilton, DT, Flash Gordon, Shepard, Ridley, M. Williams, Decker, Maclin, Marshall, G. Allison,
TE: Gronk, J. Thomas
Devy: Kelvin Harmon
2019 1st 2nd 3rd

Ilango Never Dies: 12 team Superflex, PPR
1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 2Flex
QB: Rodgers, Goff, Flacco, Jackson, Rudolph, Kizer, Lauletta
RB: Chubb, Hyde, Foreman, J. Williams, Ballage, Gore, Martin
WR: Tyreek Hill, ARob, M. Williams, Doctson, Hurns, Coleman, Enunwa, Amendola, Z. Jones, C. Samuel
TE: O.J. Howard, RSJ, Everett
2019 2nd 3rd 4th

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Goddard
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby Goddard » Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:48 am

1QB league? I'd give a late 1st and think I was buying low.

Wolfepack28
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby Wolfepack28 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:14 am

Owners are probably going to want 1.06-1.07 but the buying market is probably in the 1.10 range

jeaton6
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby jeaton6 » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:33 pm

In my 3 startups this year he’s ben in the 7-9 range (75-100 in Pick terms). Has gone after guys like Stafford, Mariota, Goff and even mahomes in most.

I like him and personally would prefer him to all of them. As a buyer early 2, seller mid to late 1.
Team 1: 12 Team PPR: QB/2 RB/3 WR/TE/Flex 25+3 Taxi (Keep 20, Max Draft 8)
QB: Wentz, Dak, Cousins, Brady, Mayfield
RB: Cook, McCaffrey, Mixon, Guice, Penny, Michel, RoJo
WR: Tyreek, Juju, Corey Davis, Landry, Thielen, Martavis, Washington, Cole, Golladay, Coleman, Dasean Hamilton, J’Mon Moore
TE: Engram, Howard, Burton
PK: Zeurlein
DEF: TBD
2018: 2019: 4 1’s, 2 2’s, 5 3’s

Team 2: 12 Team PPR: QB/2 RB/2 WR/TE/2 Flex
QB: Luck, Mariota, Smith, Trubisky, Lamar Jackson
RB: Bell, Elliott, Gurley, Barkley, Penny, Chubb, Henry
WR: Green, Hopkins, Cooks, Sutton, Cobb, Crowder, White, Fountaine, Hollins
TE: Howard, Gesecki, Eifert, Hooper
2019: 4 1's, 2020: 2 1’s

Team 3: 12 Team, Tiered PPR 0.25/1.0/1.5. 0.25 PP Carry. Return Yards. Keep 15. QB/1-3 RB/2-4 WR/TE
QB: Newton, Luck
RB: Elliott, Hunt, Monty
WR: Tyreek, Cooper, Watkins, C. Davis, Z Jones, J. Matthews, Doctson, Samuel
TE: Shaheen
2018: 1.4, 1.5, 1.6, 2.3, 3.1, 3.3, 3.4, 3.11, 4.1, 4.11, 5.11

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FantasyFreak
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:36 pm

I wouldn't pay a 2nd until he throws a football.
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