Buying Luck

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psu007
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Buying Luck

Postby psu007 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:33 am

So what is Andrew Luck's value right now? If you were trying to buy Luck, what do you feel comfortable paying without knowing the full extent of his injury going forward?
Team 1 - 12 Team, PPR, All 6TD

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, K, D

QB - Cousins, Luck, Mayfield
RB - Elliot, Thompson, McKinnon, Penny, Michel, Miller, E.McGuire, Foreman, Ekeler
WR - OBJ, Robinson, K.Allen, C.Davis, Allsion, M.Bryant, C.Coleman, Moncrief, P.Richardson, Chark
TE - Reed, Gathers, Shaheen, Seals-Jones
K - Jake Elliott
D - NE, MIA
Picks - 2019: 3-5

Team 2 - 12 Team, SF 0.5 PPR, 4/6TD

1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1SF, 1FLEX, 1TE

QB - Cousins, Goff, Tannehill, Mayfield, Jackson
RB - Gurley, Ingram, Coleman, Clement, Booker, Rawls, Samuels
WR - Hilton, Fuller, Moore, Byrant, Locket, Moncrief, Rogers, Miller, St.Brown,
TE - Gesicki, Clay, McDonald, Andrews
Picks - 2019: 1,2,3x2,4

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JJRules
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby JJRules » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:35 am

Owners who have held him for this long aren't likely to sell for anything less than his peak value as we largely expect him to return to form.

I'm not sure how many buyers would be willing to pay that given his injuries, but it's probably what it will cost.
10-team non-PPR, 16-man rosters, pseudo-dynasty
Keep any number of players (0-16), lose corresponding number of draft picks
2010, 2015 champ, 2013 runner-up

QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, FLEX, D/ST, K

QB: Watson, Luck
RB: Mixon, Kerryon, Cook, Guice, Gus, Ballage
WR: Adams, Kupp, Golladay, Godwin, Kirk
TE: Howard, Henry
D/ST:
K: Zuerlein

psu007
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby psu007 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:36 am

What was peak cost, roughly current Rodgers or Wentz value?
Team 1 - 12 Team, PPR, All 6TD

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, K, D

QB - Cousins, Luck, Mayfield
RB - Elliot, Thompson, McKinnon, Penny, Michel, Miller, E.McGuire, Foreman, Ekeler
WR - OBJ, Robinson, K.Allen, C.Davis, Allsion, M.Bryant, C.Coleman, Moncrief, P.Richardson, Chark
TE - Reed, Gathers, Shaheen, Seals-Jones
K - Jake Elliott
D - NE, MIA
Picks - 2019: 3-5

Team 2 - 12 Team, SF 0.5 PPR, 4/6TD

1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1SF, 1FLEX, 1TE

QB - Cousins, Goff, Tannehill, Mayfield, Jackson
RB - Gurley, Ingram, Coleman, Clement, Booker, Rawls, Samuels
WR - Hilton, Fuller, Moore, Byrant, Locket, Moncrief, Rogers, Miller, St.Brown,
TE - Gesicki, Clay, McDonald, Andrews
Picks - 2019: 1,2,3x2,4

psu007
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby psu007 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:00 am

On the flip side, I'm trying to decide what feels reasonable given the uncertainty, so from a buyers perspective. The Luck owner in my league seems receptive to moving him and I don't get the sense he's looking for peak value.
Team 1 - 12 Team, PPR, All 6TD

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, K, D

QB - Cousins, Luck, Mayfield
RB - Elliot, Thompson, McKinnon, Penny, Michel, Miller, E.McGuire, Foreman, Ekeler
WR - OBJ, Robinson, K.Allen, C.Davis, Allsion, M.Bryant, C.Coleman, Moncrief, P.Richardson, Chark
TE - Reed, Gathers, Shaheen, Seals-Jones
K - Jake Elliott
D - NE, MIA
Picks - 2019: 3-5

Team 2 - 12 Team, SF 0.5 PPR, 4/6TD

1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1SF, 1FLEX, 1TE

QB - Cousins, Goff, Tannehill, Mayfield, Jackson
RB - Gurley, Ingram, Coleman, Clement, Booker, Rawls, Samuels
WR - Hilton, Fuller, Moore, Byrant, Locket, Moncrief, Rogers, Miller, St.Brown,
TE - Gesicki, Clay, McDonald, Andrews
Picks - 2019: 1,2,3x2,4

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lukkynumber13
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby lukkynumber13 » Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:16 am

You might be able to get Luck for a safer but low-upside QB like Cousins, Goff, Ryan, or Stafford
T1
LUCK, Flacco, J Allen
MIXON, AP, Collins, Ajayi, D Martin, Chase E, R Smith
HILL/DIGGS/KA/EVANS/HILTON, ARob, Sammy, C Davis, Tre'Quan, Ateman, Foster
GRONK, Vance, Herndon, Shaheen
-
DL: CHANDLER/CAM JORDAN/FLOWERS, Short, Golden, Addison, Sheard, Larry O
LB: KENDRICKS/WARNER/ZACH C, Schobert, Williamson, R Evans, A Walker, KJW, Bynes, Kyzir
DB: ADDAE/AMOS/SIMMONS, John J, Kazee, TJ Mac, Diggs

T2
RIVERS, Jimmy G, Dalton, Eli, Colt M
GURLEY/DJ/MIXON, Guice, Gus E, J Wilson, Chase E, Ford
NUK/HILL/KA/EVANS/AJG, Golladay, Sammy, J-Wash, R Foster, Patrick, Sherfield, David Moore, J'Mon, JMatt, A Jones
ENGRAM, Doyle, Vance, Herndon, Higbee, Everett, Hollister
-
DL: BUCKNER/BARNETT/GRIFFEN/HEYWARD, Golden, Short, Autry, Ogbah, Wolfe, T Bryan, N Spence, Simon
LB: BURFICT/WARNER/HITCHENS, Danny T, KJW, Ebukam, A Walker, Vince W, Morrow, Hodges
DB: GEATHERS/POYER/JOHN J, Diggs, S Williams, Phillips, Kazee, Whitehead

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Blueboy
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby Blueboy » Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:03 pm

He was nearby Rodgers in startup ADP last year. I imagine now he's closer to Mariota or Stafford, which seems fair to me.
With My China Gurley: 12 team SF, 2TE, Tiered PPR.
1QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 3Flex
QB: Luck, Brady, Tannehill, Keenum, Mullens
RB: Gurley, Zeke, David Johnson, McCoy,
WR: Baldwin, Tate, Edelman, D.Thomas, Ross, Ginn, Sanu
TE: Ertz, Cook, Wilson, Andrews, Allen
2019 3rd

The Guy Is Drunk: 36 team SF, 3-copy. Tiered PPR.
1QB 1RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Rodgers, Wilson, Ryan
RB: D. Johnson, A. Peterson, D. Freeman, Abdullah, Darkwa, F. Gore,
WR: Hopkins, TY Hilton, Alshon, D. Thomas Shepard, Ridley
TE: Ebron
2019 3rd

Ilango Never Dies: 12 team SF, PPR
1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 2Flex
QB: Goff, Darnold, L. Jackson, Rudolph, Kizer
RB: Chubb, Fournette, Guice, J. Williams, Ballage
WR: ARob, M. Williams, Samuel, Z. Jones, Kumerow, Doctson
TE: O.J. Howard, Herndon
2019 1st 2nd 3rd

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Goddard
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby Goddard » Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:48 am

1QB league? I'd give a late 1st and think I was buying low.

Wolfepack28
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby Wolfepack28 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:14 am

Owners are probably going to want 1.06-1.07 but the buying market is probably in the 1.10 range

jeaton6
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Re: Buying Luck

Postby jeaton6 » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:33 pm

In my 3 startups this year he’s ben in the 7-9 range (75-100 in Pick terms). Has gone after guys like Stafford, Mariota, Goff and even mahomes in most.

I like him and personally would prefer him to all of them. As a buyer early 2, seller mid to late 1.
Team 1: 12 Team PPR: QB/2 RB/3 WR/TE/Flex 25+3 Taxi (Keep 20)
QB: Wentz, Dak, Cousins, Brady, , Foles
RB: Gurley, McCaffrey, Mixon, Penny, Michel, McCoy, Dam. Williams
WR: Tyreek, Juju, Corey Davis, Landry, Thielen, Golladay, Sutton, Washington, Hamilton
TE: Engram, Howard, Burton
PK: Zeurlein, Fairbanks
DEF: TBD
2019: 1.6, 1.9, 1.10, 1.12, 2.10, 2.11, 2.12, 3.1, 3.6, 3.8, 3.10, 3.12

Team 2: 12 Team PPR: QB/2 RB/2 WR/TE/2 Flex
QB: Luck, Mariota, Trubisky, Lamar Jackson, Foles
RB: Bell, Elliott, Gurley, Barkley, Penny, Chubb, Henry, CJA
WR: Green, Hopkins, Cooks, Sutton, M. Jones, Cobb, DT
TE: Howard, Hooper, Gesecki
2019: 1.1, 1.2, 1.8, 1.11, 3.2 2020: 2 1’s

Team 3: 12 Team, Tiered PPR 0.25/1.0/1.5. 0.25 PP Carry. Return Yards. Keep 15. QB/1-3 RB/2-4 WR/TE
QB: Newton, Luck, Jackson
RB: Elliott, Hunt, Michel, Chubb, Rojo, Edwards, Dam. Williams
WR: Tyreek, Cooper, Watkins, C. Davis, Boyd, Callaway, Sutton, Tre’Quan, Pettis
TE: Herndon, Goedert
PK: Butker
D: TBD
2019: All

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Re: Buying Luck

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:36 pm

I wouldn't pay a 2nd until he throws a football.
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