Adam Theilan value

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The Grudge
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Re: Adam Theilan value

Postby The Grudge » Mon Nov 27, 2017 3:16 pm

I recently sold Garcon, Everett and a very late first(currently in a 3 way tie for 1st, in 2nd on points) for Theilan and ASJ. And sold him in another league where I am in last place for a mid first and Jordan Matthews. I like him alot, but my team needs RBS in the worst way next year and moved him for a pick. In my contender I hope to ride him to a championship with Nuk, AJG,Baldwin and Cooper if he ever starts doing something this year.

He is putting up numbers, and was doing so last season as well. Solid hands, and is where he is suppose to be. Hopefully can get a couple years of WR2 production out of him.
Team#1-12 team ppr, 38 man rosters, league champ 2015, 7th place 2016 :( 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/RB-WR-TE Flex/2DE/3LB/3DB/DE-LB-DB Flex 18 Starters
QB: Wilson, Ben,
RB: Gordon, Hyde, Hill, Mcguire, Thompson, Gallman, Duke Johnson, Washington, Collins
WR: Green, Cooper, Baldwin, Hopkins, Tyrell, Thielen, Tay Tay, Hollins, Kasen Williams, Goodwin
TE: ASJ, Smith, Kittle, Griffin
K:
DE: Dunlap, Graham
LB: Kuchely, Mckinney, Bucannon, Brown, Bradham, Bellore, Vigil
DB: Geathers, Amerson, Johnson,

Team #2-12 team ppr, year 2 of orphan rebuild (1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/RB-WR-TE flex/2DE/3LB/3DB/DE-LB-DB Flex 18 Starters
QB: Stafford, Dalton
RB: Yeldon, Gio, Ivory, Sproles, Vereen, Foreman, Williams
WR: Evans, ARob, Crowder, Doctson, M Jones, Wallace, Tredwell, Thielen, M. Williams, J. Ross, Taylor
TE: Eifert, Witten, Fiedorowicz, Njoku
K:
DE: Wolfe, Graham
LB: Perryman, C. Jones, Bradham, Lee, Floyd, Ragland, Cunningham, Mcmillian
DB: Joseph, Cravens, Baker

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hjernazian
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Re: Adam Theilan value

Postby hjernazian » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:23 am

Space Cowboy wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:14 am
Two 1sts.
only post i agree with here. i don't get it, why do people assign value to players based on need? it doesn't matter how much depth you have or what needs are, a players value is a players value based on performance, and the guy is a WR1.
Start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, K, DEF - 26 man roster

QB: C. Newton $20, D. Brees $9, P. Mahomes $5, B. Mayfield $2

RB: D. Cook $4, D. Henry $14, T. Coleman $4, N. Chubb $4, N. Hines $1, C.J. Anderson $19, Ty Montg $5, B. Powell $4

WR: A. Robinson $41, T.Y. Hilton $24, J. Landry $25, D. Thomas $25, S. Watkins $33, C. Davis $4, C. Godwin $2

TE: E. Engram $4, K. Rudolph $3, D. Njoku $2

K/DEF: W. Lutz $4, Texans $4

Picks 2018:
1.07 Chubb
3.01 Mayfield
4.05 N. Hines

Picks 2019: 2nd, 3rd, 4th.

2019 Changes coming: SUPERFLEX, adding 2 roster spots, 1 mandatory rookie draft starter, no more K/DEF, HARD cap going from $200 to $220.

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Re: Adam Theilan value

Postby Jigga94 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:29 pm

hjernazian wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:23 am
Space Cowboy wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:14 am
Two 1sts.
only post i agree with here. i don't get it, why do people assign value to players based on need? it doesn't matter how much depth you have or what needs are, a players value is a players value based on performance, and the guy is a WR1.
For how long do you believe he will be a WR1?
2QB/3WR Standard PPR - 14 Keepers
QB: Luck, Brees, Mahomes, Flacco, Eli
RB: Abdullah, Booker, Riddick, Buck, Dixon, Ekeler
WR: Julio, Cooks, JuJu, C. Davis, Gordon, Shepard, Parker, Sanders, Treadwell
TE: Henry, Rudolph, Hooper
2018: 1.05, 1.09, 2.05
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=151831

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Re: Adam Theilan value

Postby joeya2001 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:34 am

Jigga94 wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:29 pm
hjernazian wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:23 am
Space Cowboy wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:14 am
Two 1sts.
only post i agree with here. i don't get it, why do people assign value to players based on need? it doesn't matter how much depth you have or what needs are, a players value is a players value based on performance, and the guy is a WR1.
For how long do you believe he will be a WR1?
If I had to guess 3-4 years depending if the offense evolves, who is at QB and Davlin Cook comes back strong, a running game will only make him better IMO.

I can see him going 1 of 2 ways in his career.

Either Jordy Nelson route, Big play maker, always a treat for 50+ yard tds

or

Emmanuel Sanders, Age well, still puts up solid numbers with a good QB solid floor.
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR 1TE, Super Flex, 2 Flex Spots. 10 Team Dynasty PPR

2016 Champs

QB- Philip Rivers, Jimmy G, Eli Manning, AJ McCarron, Chad Kelly
RB- Kenyan Drake, Isaiah Crowell, Lamar Miller, Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman, Tarik Cohen
WR- Obj, Mike Evans, Adam Theilen, Josh Gordon, Rishard Matthews, Corey Coleman
TE-Jimmy Graham, Jonnu Smith
D/ST-Jaguars
K- Kia Forbath
Picks 2018-2.09
2019- First, Second x2 (Another Owners)

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Valhalla
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Re: Adam Theilan value

Postby Valhalla » Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:11 am

joeya2001 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:34 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:29 pm
hjernazian wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:23 am


only post i agree with here. i don't get it, why do people assign value to players based on need? it doesn't matter how much depth you have or what needs are, a players value is a players value based on performance, and the guy is a WR1.
For how long do you believe he will be a WR1?
If I had to guess 3-4 years depending if the offense evolves, who is at QB and Davlin Cook comes back strong, a running game will only make him better IMO.

I can see him going 1 of 2 ways in his career.

Either Jordy Nelson route, Big play maker, always a treat for 50+ yard tds

or

Emmanuel Sanders, Age well, still puts up solid numbers with a good QB solid floor.
I agree with this

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Re: Adam Theilan value

Postby dazza » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:52 am

Valhalla wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:11 am
joeya2001 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:34 am
Jigga94 wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:29 pm


For how long do you believe he will be a WR1?
If I had to guess 3-4 years depending if the offense evolves, who is at QB and Davlin Cook comes back strong, a running game will only make him better IMO.

I can see him going 1 of 2 ways in his career.

Either Jordy Nelson route, Big play maker, always a treat for 50+ yard tds

or

Emmanuel Sanders, Age well, still puts up solid numbers with a good QB solid floor.
I agree with this
I think the Sanders option is probably most likely, but there's a pretty wide range of possible outcomes. If we're going to mention his absolute ceiling (Jordy is a decent stretch, in my opinion), we should also discuss an at least equally likely floor where whoever is QB ends up preferring Diggs (still the superior talent), Cooks takes a larger piece of the passing game than the RBs this year, and Rudolph perhaps also gets a larger target share. Thielen could easily end up well below Sanders' typical range (excluding this year, of course, because yuck) just because the Vikings have a deeper stable of targets. It all depends on who the QB of the future is and who that QB develops the most chemistry with

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Re: Adam Theilan value

Postby Valhalla » Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:25 pm

dazza wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:52 am
Valhalla wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:11 am
joeya2001 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:34 am


If I had to guess 3-4 years depending if the offense evolves, who is at QB and Davlin Cook comes back strong, a running game will only make him better IMO.

I can see him going 1 of 2 ways in his career.

Either Jordy Nelson route, Big play maker, always a treat for 50+ yard tds

or

Emmanuel Sanders, Age well, still puts up solid numbers with a good QB solid floor.
I agree with this
I think the Sanders option is probably most likely, but there's a pretty wide range of possible outcomes. If we're going to mention his absolute ceiling (Jordy is a decent stretch, in my opinion), we should also discuss an at least equally likely floor where whoever is QB ends up preferring Diggs (still the superior talent), Cooks takes a larger piece of the passing game than the RBs this year, and Rudolph perhaps also gets a larger target share. Thielen could easily end up well below Sanders' typical range (excluding this year, of course, because yuck) just because the Vikings have a deeper stable of targets. It all depends on who the QB of the future is and who that QB develops the most chemistry with
I don't believe Jordy as a ceiling (talent level) is a stretch. Jordy did little until his 4th year breakout. Jordy has played with the best QB in the NFL, so there's a statistical ceiling there that may not be reached. Watching both of them quite a bit, they both have an uncanny way of finding the soft spots in coverage and making themselves clear options when the QB is scrambling. They both have underrated speed. They both have underrated hands (and honestly I think Thielen's may be better). They both are quite underrated in the subtleties of their route craft.
As for which QB he plays with, he was starting to show his star qualities with Bridgewater. He was good with Bradford. He's good with Keenum. I'm not sure he is all that QB dependent, because his route craft makes him work with a precision passer like Bradford and his knack of helping the QB on extended plays makes him work with a scrambler (even a pocket scrambler like Keenum).
As for Cook stealing more passes than the current RBs...McKinnon gets a lot of passes, and got a decent amount even before Cook went down. Cook might just help to bring the safeties up a touch and help the passing game.

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Re: Adam Theilan value

Postby dazza » Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:40 am

Valhalla wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:25 pm
dazza wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:52 am
Valhalla wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:11 am

I agree with this
I think the Sanders option is probably most likely, but there's a pretty wide range of possible outcomes. If we're going to mention his absolute ceiling (Jordy is a decent stretch, in my opinion), we should also discuss an at least equally likely floor where whoever is QB ends up preferring Diggs (still the superior talent), Cooks takes a larger piece of the passing game than the RBs this year, and Rudolph perhaps also gets a larger target share. Thielen could easily end up well below Sanders' typical range (excluding this year, of course, because yuck) just because the Vikings have a deeper stable of targets. It all depends on who the QB of the future is and who that QB develops the most chemistry with
I don't believe Jordy as a ceiling (talent level) is a stretch. Jordy did little until his 4th year breakout. Jordy has played with the best QB in the NFL, so there's a statistical ceiling there that may not be reached. Watching both of them quite a bit, they both have an uncanny way of finding the soft spots in coverage and making themselves clear options when the QB is scrambling. They both have underrated speed. They both have underrated hands (and honestly I think Thielen's may be better). They both are quite underrated in the subtleties of their route craft.
As for which QB he plays with, he was starting to show his star qualities with Bridgewater. He was good with Bradford. He's good with Keenum. I'm not sure he is all that QB dependent, because his route craft makes him work with a precision passer like Bradford and his knack of helping the QB on extended plays makes him work with a scrambler (even a pocket scrambler like Keenum).
As for Cook stealing more passes than the current RBs...McKinnon gets a lot of passes, and got a decent amount even before Cook went down. Cook might just help to bring the safeties up a touch and help the passing game.
I don't think we're necessarily disagreeing about the Jordy comp. Production ceiling is a pretty critical factor to a player's fantasy value, and I'm talking about that value. If Thielen was a significantly younger player, you could throw his team situation out, but at 27 it's more important to include that situation in a realistic value for the player. I don't disagree with you about the talent (other than that saying Thielen has better hands is, at best, splitting hairs), but I care about production when I'm giving up draft picks

My Cook statement was part of a larger point. People assume Cook's return will help Thielen. People are, generally, willing to consider Thielen's theoretical upside without so much as a glance at his downside as well. I view his situation as similar to Engram's. When OBJ and Shepard went down in NY, Engram became a target hog. He's produced pretty darn well for a rookie TE being relied on that way, but there's loads in this forum who are willing do discount that because his situation will change next year and likely cost him targets (even though OBJ will also draw coverage). Thielen is in the same boat. Bradford's connection with Thielen seemed good, but he also had great chemistry with Diggs. Bradford goes down. Diggs also gets hurt. Absent Diggs, Keenum develops incredible chemistry with Thielen. Diggs comes back, but the chemistry still isn't there and Thielen sees the targets. Keenum is playing out of his mind (unsustainable, in my opinion), and likely won't be back next year. Diggs is the better talent (argue if you want, but he's been the more efficient with the targets he's seen). The odds that Thielen maintains his chemistry advantage with the QB next year, keeps his target share with the offense healthy, and is seeing the same level of play from whoever is at QB are not good. His production could just as easily (I'd argue more) go down rather than up.

I think the Sanders comp is a good one. Predicting a few years of that kind of production seems reasonable. But if you're going to mention a Jordy ceiling, you have to also take into account that his floor might not be prime Sanders at all. He could, as easily as being Jordy given his team situation, be the 3rd or 4th target on his team next year and be a huge disappointment. Sanders' huge advantage as a 1B on his team is that options 3 and 4 don't exist. That volume safety net doesn't exist for Thielen, so lets not talk about Jordy upside and pretend that Sanders is his floor

The problem, as I see it, is that valuing Thielen as more than a mid/late (I'd say late) first is betting he's more than Sanders. I just don't think that's a good bet today. I'd also much rather take many of the other players I've seen given a mid/early first in this forum-younger players with even more talent and equal or better situations (Kamara being top of that list, Amari or Davis if you want a receiver). I'd rather take a rookie with a mid-first in this year's deep class than give it up for Thielen. Heck, I'd rather have Josh Gordon and his upside/near guaranteed volume as long as he plays. I'm not going to own Thielen (unless I get a 2, 2, McKinnon type offer-which no one in my leagues is doing), and I'm ok with that. The player I'll get at the price people are talking about will likely outperform him anyway

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Re: Adam Theilan value

Postby cweds » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:52 pm

dazza wrote:
Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:40 am
Valhalla wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:25 pm
dazza wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:52 am


I think the Sanders option is probably most likely, but there's a pretty wide range of possible outcomes. If we're going to mention his absolute ceiling (Jordy is a decent stretch, in my opinion), we should also discuss an at least equally likely floor where whoever is QB ends up preferring Diggs (still the superior talent), Cooks takes a larger piece of the passing game than the RBs this year, and Rudolph perhaps also gets a larger target share. Thielen could easily end up well below Sanders' typical range (excluding this year, of course, because yuck) just because the Vikings have a deeper stable of targets. It all depends on who the QB of the future is and who that QB develops the most chemistry with
I don't believe Jordy as a ceiling (talent level) is a stretch. Jordy did little until his 4th year breakout. Jordy has played with the best QB in the NFL, so there's a statistical ceiling there that may not be reached. Watching both of them quite a bit, they both have an uncanny way of finding the soft spots in coverage and making themselves clear options when the QB is scrambling. They both have underrated speed. They both have underrated hands (and honestly I think Thielen's may be better). They both are quite underrated in the subtleties of their route craft.
As for which QB he plays with, he was starting to show his star qualities with Bridgewater. He was good with Bradford. He's good with Keenum. I'm not sure he is all that QB dependent, because his route craft makes him work with a precision passer like Bradford and his knack of helping the QB on extended plays makes him work with a scrambler (even a pocket scrambler like Keenum).
As for Cook stealing more passes than the current RBs...McKinnon gets a lot of passes, and got a decent amount even before Cook went down. Cook might just help to bring the safeties up a touch and help the passing game.
I don't think we're necessarily disagreeing about the Jordy comp. Production ceiling is a pretty critical factor to a player's fantasy value, and I'm talking about that value. If Thielen was a significantly younger player, you could throw his team situation out, but at 27 it's more important to include that situation in a realistic value for the player. I don't disagree with you about the talent (other than that saying Thielen has better hands is, at best, splitting hairs), but I care about production when I'm giving up draft picks

My Cook statement was part of a larger point. People assume Cook's return will help Thielen. People are, generally, willing to consider Thielen's theoretical upside without so much as a glance at his downside as well. I view his situation as similar to Engram's. When OBJ and Shepard went down in NY, Engram became a target hog. He's produced pretty darn well for a rookie TE being relied on that way, but there's loads in this forum who are willing do discount that because his situation will change next year and likely cost him targets (even though OBJ will also draw coverage). Thielen is in the same boat. Bradford's connection with Thielen seemed good, but he also had great chemistry with Diggs. Bradford goes down. Diggs also gets hurt. Absent Diggs, Keenum develops incredible chemistry with Thielen. Diggs comes back, but the chemistry still isn't there and Thielen sees the targets. Keenum is playing out of his mind (unsustainable, in my opinion), and likely won't be back next year. Diggs is the better talent (argue if you want, but he's been the more efficient with the targets he's seen). The odds that Thielen maintains his chemistry advantage with the QB next year, keeps his target share with the offense healthy, and is seeing the same level of play from whoever is at QB are not good. His production could just as easily (I'd argue more) go down rather than up.

I think the Sanders comp is a good one. Predicting a few years of that kind of production seems reasonable. But if you're going to mention a Jordy ceiling, you have to also take into account that his floor might not be prime Sanders at all. He could, as easily as being Jordy given his team situation, be the 3rd or 4th target on his team next year and be a huge disappointment. Sanders' huge advantage as a 1B on his team is that options 3 and 4 don't exist. That volume safety net doesn't exist for Thielen, so lets not talk about Jordy upside and pretend that Sanders is his floor

The problem, as I see it, is that valuing Thielen as more than a mid/late (I'd say late) first is betting he's more than Sanders. I just don't think that's a good bet today. I'd also much rather take many of the other players I've seen given a mid/early first in this forum-younger players with even more talent and equal or better situations (Kamara being top of that list, Amari or Davis if you want a receiver). I'd rather take a rookie with a mid-first in this year's deep class than give it up for Thielen. Heck, I'd rather have Josh Gordon and his upside/near guaranteed volume as long as he plays. I'm not going to own Thielen (unless I get a 2, 2, McKinnon type offer-which no one in my leagues is doing), and I'm ok with that. The player I'll get at the price people are talking about will likely outperform him anyway
You raise some good points but I'm afraid I disagree that he could be relegated to 3rd or 4th on the target depth chart. He's on pace for over 1400 yards this season. They're not going to draft a receiver early or sign a star FA and Rudolph is a solid TE but there's no way he passes Thielen. And for how old he is, he's only one year older than Josh Gordon and doesn't have the suspension risk. Seems like a safe investment to me.
Team 1 (2nd Season):
12 team 6pts all TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,FLEX
24 Man Active Roster
QB: Wilson, Wentz
RB: Freeman, D. Cook, Jamal Williams, Carson, AP, Joe Williams, J. Richard, Lacy
WR: Adams, T. Hill, Thielen, M. Bryant, Golladay, C. Williams, C. Henderson, Mitchell
TE: Olsen, Kittle, Ebron, J. Smith, Shaheen
2018: 1.11, 2.09, 2.11, 3.09, 3.11, 4.11, 5.11
2019: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th

Team 2 (1st season):
12 team 4pt Pass TDs/.5ppr
Start QB,2RB,2WR,TE,3FLEX
25 Man Active Roster/3 IR spots
QB: Mariota, Roethlisberger, Trubisky
RB: David Johnson, Carson, De. Washington, Conner, Dixon, Yeldon, Lacy, Jon. Williams
WR: Allen, Watkins, Landry, Robinson, JJSS, Doctson, Treadwell, Godwin, Henderson, C. Williams, Allison
TE: Kelce, Njoku, Shaheen, Seals-Jones, Anderson
2018: 1.03, 1.04, 1.09, 3.04, 5.04


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