Julio vs. AJG value disparity

[Vcize]

I am noticing a fairly significant disparity in the value of Julio vs. AJG around the dynasty landscape. Namely, Julio seems to be valued a lot higher, and I'm not sure that he should be.

Granted in an injury shortened season, discounting the game where he got injured in the 1st quarter last year AJG was the #1 WR in FF last year in PPG. Julio was #5.

So far this year, AJG is WR5 while Julio is WR20.

There is only a 7 month age difference between the two, yet Julio seems to claim significantly more value. Granted Julio did have a monster season a few years ago, but part of Matt Ryan's maturation into an elite QB has been that he spreads the ball around a lot more and I don't really see a scenario where he force feeds Julio 200+ targets occurring again. He had 133 last year in Ryan's career year and is on pace for 138 this year.

As far as upside, it seems like AJG is the guy to have there while also being the better producer of the two over the last two years as well. As I mentioned he was WR1 last year when he got hurt, and this year he is WR5 despite the Bengals playing absolutely horridly in their first 2 games. If he's outperforming Julio when Dalton is playing like he did in weeks 1 and 2, imagine what he will do if Dalton starts playing decently.

It just seems odd to me that Julio's perceived value seems to be not only higher, but quite a bit higher, despite there being very compelling arguments that he should be valued less than AJG, maybe even significantly so. Matt Ryan is never going to put up the efficiency numbers he did last year again, so if the targets don't increase significantly for Julio (which they don't appear to be at all) there seems nowhere to go but down from the spot where he was already behind AJG.

[Hahaclintondix]

I don't really disagree with anything that you said. I think the value difference stems from Ryan vs. Dalton as you sort of mentioned. Could also be the fact that Julio has that one absolutely monster season that still sticks in owners heads. Here were the two trades that just went down in my league involving both players:

Team A gives: Ty Montgomery, Eifert, 2 mid 2018 1sts
Team B gives Julio Jones, 2018 2nd (mid)

Team A gives: Brandin Cooks, Crowder, late 2018 1st (likely 1.08-1.12), 2019 3rd
Team B gives: AJ, Delanie Walker, early 2018 2nd (likely 2.01-2.02)

Both are pretty fair-ish, but in my opinion Julio went for a cheaper price.

[Goddard]

I think AJG being banged up last year and missing games hurt some of his value, but I agree, they should be basically equal.

[Mjvb5]

Yeah to me Julio, AJG and AB should all be valued similarly due to similar age, usage and IMO skill level. I'd personally rank Dez along with them if he can get past these recent injuries and lack of production

[pierson242]

I think AJG being banged up last year and missing games hurt some of his value, but I agree, they should be basically equal.

x2

[Dynasty DeLorean]

This is the reason I sold Julio in the league where I own both but not AJG.