Baldwin or Jarvis

[asande]

I like baldwin over Landry straight up so i would definitely take Baldwin+. The only think Landry has on Baldwin is age so if your team is a long way from competing i guess you could make the case for Landry, but even then i would take Baldwin.

[RightlegTucker]

Non PPR it's close but I'd go with Landry because of age, in PPR it's easily Landry.

Why?
You do realize they both had the exact same 94 receptions last year? And that Landry had only 6 more targets? And that Miami has lots more competition for targets and throws less? And Baldwin was actually more consistent with catch numbers?

That's Baldwins career high by a good bit, Landry topped 100 catches as a young player at 23 and came close to it again last year. He should be a target monster throughout his career. Baldwin's a nice player but I don't really see the debate in this situation. Maybe if Landry weren't four years younger? You shouldn't judge a player's future outlook purely by last season's performance, that's how people end up getting burned in dynasty.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

That's Baldwins career high by a good bit, Landry topped 100 catches as a young player at 23 and came close to it again last year. He should be a target monster throughout his career. Baldwin's a nice player but I don't really see the debate in this situation. Maybe if Landry weren't four years younger? You shouldn't judge a player's future outlook purely by last season's performance, that's how people end up getting burned in dynasty.

Last year is the most relevant data point we have, especially since it is Landry's only season in Gase's offense and his only season with a good run game. I have doubts about Landry being a target monster anymore as a Dolphins fan. From week 5 on (which is when Gase came out and said he was committing to Ajayi), Landry was on pace for 114 targets per 16 games, and Miami went 9-3. I think that is a more reasonable expectation for his targets than the 2 season prior with a completely different offensive system.

[RightlegTucker]

Last year is the most relevant data point we have, especially since it is Landry's only season in Gase's offense and his only season with a good run game. I have doubts about Landry being a target monster anymore as a Dolphins fan. From week 5 on (which is when Gase came out and said he was committing to Ajayi), Landry was on pace for 114 targets per 16 games, and Miami went 9-3. I think that is a more reasonable expectation for his targets than the 2 season prior with a completely different offensive system.

You can pick any sample size and extrapolate what you want. Through weeks 1-13 Baldwin only had 85 targets which would've put him on pace for roughly 104 on the year. The Seahawks are a run oriented team and should have a larger focus on the ground moving forward, Peter Carroll has said as much. I don't see how the same critiques you're applying to Landry also don't apply to Baldwin. I think Landry has a better chance of matching last year's production than Baldwin does all things considered.

In three years, Landry will most likely be entering his prime while Baldwin will most likely be on the back of his career, or at the very least on the decline if you're optimistic. It seem like a relatively easy decision from a dynasty perspective imo.

[senska11]

Last year is the most relevant data point we have, especially since it is Landry's only season in Gase's offense and his only season with a good run game. I have doubts about Landry being a target monster anymore as a Dolphins fan. From week 5 on (which is when Gase came out and said he was committing to Ajayi), Landry was on pace for 114 targets per 16 games, and Miami went 9-3. I think that is a more reasonable expectation for his targets than the 2 season prior with a completely different offensive system.

You can pick any sample size and extrapolate what you want. Through weeks 1-13 Baldwin only had 85 targets which would've put him on pace for roughly 104 on the year. The Seahawks are a run oriented team and should have a larger focus on the ground moving forward, Peter Carroll has said as much. I don't see how the same critiques you're applying to Landry also don't apply to Baldwin. I think Landry has a better chance of matching last year's production than Baldwin does all things considered.

In three years, Landry will most likely be entering his prime while Baldwin will most likely be on the back of his career, or at the very least on the decline if you're optimistic. It seem like a relatively easy decision from a dynasty perspective imo.

That's fine. When Baldwin outscores Landry in PPR scoring for the 3rd year in a row this year we can have the discussion again.

Yes, Landry has age, but that is it.
Landry plays with a worse quarterback.
Landry plays on an offense that runs more.
Landry plays with more competition for targets.
Landry plays for a team that has invested in multiple other receivers while not investing in him.
Landry will be a FA next year (could be good or bad).

[RightlegTucker]

That's fine. When Baldwin outscores Landry in PPR scoring for the 3rd year in a row this year we can have the discussion again.

Yes, Landry has age, but that is it.
Landry plays with a worse quarterback.
Landry plays on an offense that runs more.
Landry plays with more competition for targets.
Landry plays for a team that has invested in multiple other receivers while not investing in him.
Landry will be a FA next year (could be good or bad).

I think the question everyone needs to ask in these situations is in 3-5 years, would you rather have Landry or Baldwin? Landry still had 20 more targets than Baldwin did last season at 24, and that was his (Baldwin's) career high. Seahawks historically emphasize the run more than the Dolphins, last year was more of an aberration than the beginning of a trend. Pete Carroll has stated as much over the offseason. They have a full stable now with Lacy, healthy Rawls, and Prosise (who could see a lot of targets this year as well). Even if the Phins focus on the run more next year it's not a given that they'll eclipse the Seahawks in that department. Landry also has early production and a higher ceiling, Baldwin didn't start peaking until 27. Right now in redraft it might be debatable, but looking several years down the road Peak Landry >> Declining Baldwin in dynasty.

[gaNMan]

For me it would boil down to even.

Give me Baldwin on a team that's competing
Give me Landry on a team that's youth / rebuild orientated.

Any + on either side is a bonus.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

That's fine. When Baldwin outscores Landry in PPR scoring for the 3rd year in a row this year we can have the discussion again.

Yes, Landry has age, but that is it.
Landry plays with a worse quarterback.
Landry plays on an offense that runs more.
Landry plays with more competition for targets.
Landry plays for a team that has invested in multiple other receivers while not investing in him.
Landry will be a FA next year (could be good or bad).

I think the question everyone needs to ask in these situations is in 3-5 years, would you rather have Landry or Baldwin? Landry still had 20 more targets than Baldwin did last season at 24, and that was his (Baldwin's) career high. Seahawks historically emphasize the run more than the Dolphins, last year was more of an aberration than the beginning of a trend. Pete Carroll has stated as much over the offseason. They have a full stable now with Lacy, healthy Rawls, and Prosise (who could see a lot of targets this year as well). Even if the Phins focus on the run more next year it's not a given that they'll eclipse the Seahawks in that department. Landry also has early production and a higher ceiling, Baldwin didn't start peaking until 27. Right now in redraft it might be debatable, but looking several years down the road Peak Landry >> Declining Baldwin in dynasty.

I don't think it is debatable in redraft, it is Baldwin hands down. As for targets, Landry has only thrived on a crazy amount of targets. Baldwin has done as well on less targets. Baldwin is more likely to see the number of targets he has succeeded with than Landry is to see the number of targets Landry has succeeded with. That was my point with bringing up targets and role in offense.

In 3-5 years I agree that Landry will likely be the better asset, but I want to win in the next 3-5 years too. If I thought Landry had the ability to be a top-5 WR in his prime, I would say it is worth giving up current production to wait for his ceiling. But if we are comparing high-floor players without top overall WR ability (and I think we are), give me the guy who is a surer bet over the next few years.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

For me it would boil down to even.

Give me Baldwin on a team that's competing
Give me Landry on a team that's youth / rebuild orientated.

Any + on either side is a bonus.

I don't disagree with this, but honestly, I am selling both if I am rebuilding.

[hord]

It would take Landry+ for me to get rid of Baldwin. He's a WR1 and Landry is the WR2 with WR1 upside. The numbers don't lie over the past couple seasons and for some reason Miami signed Stills to an extension and there's at least a decent chance that he doesn't re-sign. Free agency could be good for Landry but it could also be bad. And finally for me it's Wilson > Tannehill, not to mention the target share Baldwin receives is better.

I agree... they are both available in my draft in a ppr, and I am not thinking twice about taking Baldwin over landry... bald has been a top 10 ppr guy for 2, if not three years in a row. better qb. line is def questionable, but they seem to get it done anyway, and Russell wasn't even healthy last year. Baldwin is one of the most un-appreciate underated wr in my opinion.
landry is good, but seems like he died off a little in the second half, and I think parker takes a huge step forward this year, and will likely be cutlers favorite target..