Doctson or JMatt

[Valhalla]

Your argument, although well laid out, has a pretty glaring flaw. The entire argument revolves around his target volume and assumes he should be putting up consistent top 15 numbers given that volume, but isn't.
1. There were 28 players with more targets than Matthews last year. It's not like he was getting top 15 volume.
2. His QB was passing rather erratically and for a very low yard per completion. Not all targets are created equal. What would he have done with 117 targets from Aaron Rodgers? I'd venture more than Davante Adams managed on 146 targets, but that's just my opinion.
My point is, saying he's not good or has low upside because he wasn't top 15 on his target volume is flawed in two ways. He didn't have a top 15 volume of targets, and those targets were poor quality.
I'll wait to see where he may end up come '18 before placing any longer-term projections on him.

I don't disagree that "not all targets are equal", nor does the volume assume he should be a top 15 option. That was the explanation given or the one I interpreted from the previous stance. That he has shown top 15 upside when given volume. I was trying to show that Matthews produces as a WR3 with WR2 upside, even with the higher volume given to him.

In fact, while JMatt has had some real rough spots at times, he HAS shown top-15 upside (in a PPR, when given enough volume) in flashes.

Gotcha. Fair enough

[remedy29]

You can find guys that give you JMatt production off the WW every year. Doctson has a chance to be a WR1. Not this year, but maybe year 3.

I agree with this. Jordan Mathews is a WR3 type player and talent. Doctson was a first round pick in NFL and dynasty. You are certainly hoping for better than WR3 numbers from first round picks. I'll easily take the more talented player.

[remedy29]

[/quote]
There is NOTHING that we know about Doctson that tells us he has a much higher potential ceiling than Matthews. In fact, while JMatt has had some real rough spots at times, he HAS shown top-15 upside (in a PPR, when given enough volume) in flashes.
[/quote]

And why would any NFL team go into a season with the plan to give Jordan Mathews that much volume? His talent does not demand high volume.

[esloan35]

Doctson and it's not even close.

I agree with DD in premises, for what J Matt is given you every week you can find/replace on the ww or through aging vets for cheaper than what it would take to acquire J Matt. (Tyrell, Meredith, Tyreek were all waiver wire adds last year, Garcon, Fitz, B Marsh all older aging assets that imo will have at worst equal the point value that J Matt will bring)

I have to think Jmatt here until I see Doctson on a field.

If you gotta wait to see it then its too late, this kind of philosophy ensures that you are always paying top dollar for an asset. Sure you lose sometimes but when you hit, boy you hit.

So why move a known asset for a unknown passed on last year rookie hype. A Doc owner is already getting the hype based on nothing if they score Jmatt right?? Its all a gamble. Many will surface during the season that we are talking about and many will fail. Based on theory you have to take a calculated risk and Doc<Jmatt at this point. IMO

[esloan35]

Good discussion on this post!

[Sterling Archer]

The notion that Matthews production can be easily replicated via cheap trade or WW is ridiculous. The guy put up WR2 numbers in two of his first three years.

Fun fact: Using incorrect stats/notions to spin a biased narrative only gets you so far.

I'm not sure what kind of scoring formats you play in, but just pulling data from a pretty vanilla and probably standard setting of 6 points per TD and 1 point per reception your "put up WR2 numbers in 2/3 years" is flawed.

J Matt 2016 - 73/804/3TDs - 172.90 points, WR 43 finish. WR2 #'s (WR 13-24 finish) were 225-199 points
J Matt 2015 - 78/943/6TDS - 206.80 points, WR 24 finish. WR2 #'s were 237-206 points
J Matt 2014 - 59/767/7TDS - 177.70 points, WR 31 finish. WR2 #'s were 254-196 points

He missed 1 game in all 3 years, and targets only went up from his rookie year from 93 to 119 to 116 last year. There was one, ONE WR2 season and he was the tail end of the WR2 conversation. So the narrative should be the guy put up WR3 (at best) numbers on average.

I'm all about punting WR3 type guys for WR1 upside.

Agreed. That's why I say Doctson and it isn't close. IMO he has WR1 upside and I would take that all day over a guy that at his best is producing WR3 play with the occasional WR2 week.

Fun facts: The stats are accurate and I've got no bias or narrative to spin. I own Matthews in exactly zero leagues and have honestly owned him in zero redrafts.

I was using standard scoring (0ppr). He finished WR24, WR19, WR51 in standard scoring, thus finished as a WR2 in 2 out of 3 years.

It is you who has the wrong stats. He actually missed two games last year.

I'm no Matthews fan boy. I just can't believe people hate on him so much. I plan to see if I can get him for peanuts during the next 5 months based on all the hate here. Maybe he'll go to a slot friendly offense in 2018. My point was merely that he's proven he can be a WR2 and he's about the same age as Doctson who has missed 16 games in one season while Matthews has missed 2 games in 3 seasons. I just don't think this poll should be so lopsided.

[remedy29]

Mathews has been miscasted as a WR1, and thus with targets he didn't deserve to receive he produced nearly WR2 value. Those are inflated numbers. He plays the slot because he can not play the outside, not because that is the best use of his talent and teams can't wait to get a Jordan Mathews to build their team around. He has shown he can't seperate from defenders, does not have great hands, he is a body catcher. He has size and is a solid WR3/WR4. Not bad, but nothing more.


You'll see this from Mathews this year with his reduction in targets.

[Weeman]

I own both players. Personally Doctsons age & lack of NFL production factor, in addition to the fact I feel Crowder, Reed& Pryor put pressure on the OC to spread the ball. Jmatt moving back to the slot woth more help seems like a great situation for him. The upside & ceiling of Doctson looks tempting, but I'd much rather Jmatts solid floor.

[lukkynumber13]

I own both players. Personally Doctsons age & lack of NFL production factor, in addition to the fact I feel Crowder, Reed& Pryor put pressure on the OC to spread the ball. Jmatt moving back to the slot woth more help seems like a great situation for him. The upside & ceiling of Doctson looks tempting, but I'd much rather Jmatts solid floor.

X a million

[shocker35]

Seems fairly even to me. Numbers wise and ceiling wise. Doctson if Cousins stays

[cazzie33]

I vote ... no clear cut winner ! Hung jury

Both have no clear path to targets and are likely 4th options in current passing game. Both could be inserted into starting lineup if Pryor and Alshon move on after one year contracts.

Cousins could be gone next year. So could Matthews ,so that leaves us not knowing whom either will have @ QB.

Matthews has better stats as a defacto #1 WR but also exhibited poor hands with multiple drops each year. Doctson has shown in college only ability in contested balls to have good hands. But has he lost his burst after the injuries ?

Counting on either to ever produce @ a #1 level is an extreme leap of faith. Even a #2 is probably wishful thinking but if things fall into place a possibility. Most likely to fall in the #3 range for both.

Matthews has more or less proven he's not the go to guy for an offense. Doctson hasn't yet disproved that he can't be that guy. Until he gets 100% healthy we won't know, if he ever does .

For me I would take a shot on the devil I don't know because that's my personal preference. Shoot for the moon. Based on that I'd roll with Doctson and hope he balls out when his opportunity knocks. I've seen what Matthews has done with his opportunity to be the guy and I wasn't all that impressed. That being said I have no overwhelming reason to believe Doctson won't be relegated to second class status if Pryor and Cousins click and both decide to stay in D.C. so there's that to consider too.

Bottom line, neither jumps out at me as anything other than a 4th or 5th option WR on my roster as a bye week replacement level guy