Doctson or JMatt
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Re: Doctson or JMatt
Understandable, but you could buy that production at 1/4 the cost of JMatt easily.
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TE: Watson, Eifert, Bennet
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Re: Doctson or JMatt
Not at all. JMatt is only going for a late 1st or early 2nd. You can't get a 900+ yard WR for 1/4 of thatwildabeast49 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:59 am Understandable, but you could buy that production at 1/4 the cost of JMatt easily.
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Re: Doctson or JMatt
disagree, late 2/early 3 pretty regularly buys garçon, marvin Jones, Kenny Britt, Thielen etc
10 team, .5 ppr dynasty
QB: Brady, Wilson
RB: Fournette, cook, mixon, Ajayi, Gordon, Ware, Joe Williams, Hunt, Martin
WR: Evans, TY, Dez, Sammy, Coleman, Diggs, Ross, White, Fitz
TE: Watson, Eifert, Bennet
PPR 12 team superflex, limited devy (1 per year) heavy return yardage
Cousins, Rivers, Kizer
Fournette, Zeke, Mixon, mcCaffrey, Joe Williams, Mcnichols, Mack, Martin
Cooper, Evans, Watkins, Coleman, Diggs, Martavis, Chad Williams, Parker
Henry, Rudolph, Hodges
QB: Brady, Wilson
RB: Fournette, cook, mixon, Ajayi, Gordon, Ware, Joe Williams, Hunt, Martin
WR: Evans, TY, Dez, Sammy, Coleman, Diggs, Ross, White, Fitz
TE: Watson, Eifert, Bennet
PPR 12 team superflex, limited devy (1 per year) heavy return yardage
Cousins, Rivers, Kizer
Fournette, Zeke, Mixon, mcCaffrey, Joe Williams, Mcnichols, Mack, Martin
Cooper, Evans, Watkins, Coleman, Diggs, Martavis, Chad Williams, Parker
Henry, Rudolph, Hodges
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Re: Doctson or JMatt
It's not BS. You can find WW guys or buy other receivers cheaply who will give you the same production as Jmatt. He's not a WR1 type and most likely never will be. Someone else said it never happens, well I picked up Meredith off waivers last year so it does happen. Sure, it's hard to predict. The main point I was trying to make is you can easily acquire Jmatt production cheaper elsewhere. Whether it's a guy on the WW, or older vets like Crabtree or Fitz. And then you have those guys like Marvin Jones before last year, Chris Conley this year, Garcon, etc and whoever else you can acquire very cheaply who have a great opportunity for targets. The thing that's really hard to find is a receiver with legitimate WR1 upside, something I believe Doctson has. I don't get how that's a "hot take", it's simply my opinion lol.lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:38 pmI have a lot of respect for your opinion DD, but this is BS.Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:59 am You can find guys that give you JMatt production off the WW every year. Doctson has a chance to be a WR1. Not this year, but maybe year 3.
Yes, there will be a couple WRs every year that come out of the woodwork to post 1000+ yard seasons, but good luck predicting who they'll be.
And saying Doctson has a dynasty WR1 ceiling is simply making a hot take that can't technically be disproven, but that doesn't make it true.
Re: Doctson or JMatt
Yep, I don't own Doctson any where, but if I did I would move him for Jmatt anytime and probably even get a pick added on the Doctson hype.Goddard wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:18 amI don't see anyone like that on any of my waivers. And definitely no one who's only 24 years old and already averaging those numbers.wildabeast49 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:19 pm to be fair Jmatt is averaging 890 yards and 6 tds a year. very replaceable numbers.
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Re: Doctson or JMatt
Doctson and it's not even close.
I agree with DD in premises, for what J Matt is given you every week you can find/replace on the ww or through aging vets for cheaper than what it would take to acquire J Matt. (Tyrell, Meredith, Tyreek were all waiver wire adds last year, Garcon, Fitz, B Marsh all older aging assets that imo will have at worst equal the point value that J Matt will bring)
I agree with DD in premises, for what J Matt is given you every week you can find/replace on the ww or through aging vets for cheaper than what it would take to acquire J Matt. (Tyrell, Meredith, Tyreek were all waiver wire adds last year, Garcon, Fitz, B Marsh all older aging assets that imo will have at worst equal the point value that J Matt will bring)
If you gotta wait to see it then its too late, this kind of philosophy ensures that you are always paying top dollar for an asset. Sure you lose sometimes but when you hit, boy you hit.
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Re: Doctson or JMatt
I was really shocked this was so lopsided. I didn't read the thread before voting, but I voted Matthews and I would do it again.
Fun fact: Matthews is less than 5 months older than Doctson.
The notion that Matthews production can be easily replicated via cheap trade or WW is ridiculous. The guy put up WR2 numbers in two of his first three years. There is usually a guy that comes out of nowhere to put up WR2 numbers, but if you've got a good team then your odds of dropping a good player are greater than your odds of finding one. For every Meredith, how many scrubs were picks up and later dropped? Now if your team is crap and you've got 5 worthless guys at the bottom of your roster, then churn away. Those are typically the teams that have the best shot at finding the WW gem. The bottom 5 guys on my rosters all have legitimate upside.
I'm all about punting WR3 type guys for WR1 upside (see the Crowder vs. Pryor or Meredith vs. White threads) but I'm less inclined to punt proven WR2 talent for a total unknown. Granted, I don't expect WR2 number on a crowded Philly team, but if Matthews goes where he'll be used correctly in 2018 then I think WR2 production can return. But 2017 is a bit moot because I don't expect big things out of Doctson this year, either, with Pryor, Reed, and Crowder all vying for targets.
So given that they're essentially the same age, Doctson has already had a fairly serious injury (and what's the recurrence rate of tendinitis?), and Matthews has already had two seasons of 8 TDs and three seasons of 800+ yards... the decision seems pretty easy to me.
Fun fact: Matthews is less than 5 months older than Doctson.
The notion that Matthews production can be easily replicated via cheap trade or WW is ridiculous. The guy put up WR2 numbers in two of his first three years. There is usually a guy that comes out of nowhere to put up WR2 numbers, but if you've got a good team then your odds of dropping a good player are greater than your odds of finding one. For every Meredith, how many scrubs were picks up and later dropped? Now if your team is crap and you've got 5 worthless guys at the bottom of your roster, then churn away. Those are typically the teams that have the best shot at finding the WW gem. The bottom 5 guys on my rosters all have legitimate upside.
I'm all about punting WR3 type guys for WR1 upside (see the Crowder vs. Pryor or Meredith vs. White threads) but I'm less inclined to punt proven WR2 talent for a total unknown. Granted, I don't expect WR2 number on a crowded Philly team, but if Matthews goes where he'll be used correctly in 2018 then I think WR2 production can return. But 2017 is a bit moot because I don't expect big things out of Doctson this year, either, with Pryor, Reed, and Crowder all vying for targets.
So given that they're essentially the same age, Doctson has already had a fairly serious injury (and what's the recurrence rate of tendinitis?), and Matthews has already had two seasons of 8 TDs and three seasons of 800+ yards... the decision seems pretty easy to me.
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Re: Doctson or JMatt
Omgosh. I feel like I just met my soulmate.... THANK YOU for your wisdom & well thought out words.Sterling Archer wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2017 6:53 am I was really shocked this was so lopsided. I didn't read the thread before voting, but I voted Matthews and I would do it again.
Fun fact: Matthews is less than 5 months older than Doctson.
The notion that Matthews production can be easily replicated via cheap trade or WW is ridiculous. The guy put up WR2 numbers in two of his first three years. There is usually a guy that comes out of nowhere to put up WR2 numbers, but if you've got a good team then your odds of dropping a good player are greater than your odds of finding one. For every Meredith, how many scrubs were picks up and later dropped? Now if your team is crap and you've got 5 worthless guys at the bottom of your roster, then churn away. Those are typically the teams that have the best shot at finding the WW gem. The bottom 5 guys on my rosters all have legitimate upside.
I'm all about punting WR3 type guys for WR1 upside (see the Crowder vs. Pryor or Meredith vs. White threads) but I'm less inclined to punt proven WR2 talent for a total unknown. Granted, I don't expect WR2 number on a crowded Philly team, but if Matthews goes where he'll be used correctly in 2018 then I think WR2 production can return. But 2017 is a bit moot because I don't expect big things out of Doctson this year, either, with Pryor, Reed, and Crowder all vying for targets.
So given that they're essentially the same age, Doctson has already had a fairly serious injury (and what's the recurrence rate of tendinitis?), and Matthews has already had two seasons of 8 TDs and three seasons of 800+ yards... the decision seems pretty easy to me.
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Re: Doctson or JMatt
Fun fact: Using incorrect stats/notions to spin a biased narrative only gets you so far.Sterling Archer wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2017 6:53 am The notion that Matthews production can be easily replicated via cheap trade or WW is ridiculous. The guy put up WR2 numbers in two of his first three years.
I'm not sure what kind of scoring formats you play in, but just pulling data from a pretty vanilla and probably standard setting of 6 points per TD and 1 point per reception your "put up WR2 numbers in 2/3 years" is flawed.
J Matt 2016 - 73/804/3TDs - 172.90 points, WR 43 finish. WR2 #'s (WR 13-24 finish) were 225-199 points
J Matt 2015 - 78/943/6TDS - 206.80 points, WR 24 finish. WR2 #'s were 237-206 points
J Matt 2014 - 59/767/7TDS - 177.70 points, WR 31 finish. WR2 #'s were 254-196 points
He missed 1 game in all 3 years, and targets only went up from his rookie year from 93 to 119 to 116 last year. There was one, ONE WR2 season and he was the tail end of the WR2 conversation. So the narrative should be the guy put up WR3 (at best) numbers on average.
Agreed. That's why I say Doctson and it isn't close. IMO he has WR1 upside and I would take that all day over a guy that at his best is producing WR3 play with the occasional WR2 week.Sterling Archer wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2017 6:53 am I'm all about punting WR3 type guys for WR1 upside.
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Re: Doctson or JMatt
Saying that Doctson has some magical WR1 upside that's nonexistent for Matthews is nothing more than Devil-I-Don't-Know flawed thinking. Don't get me wrong, I fall prey to that too, but it is FLAWED thinking.Death_From_Above wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2017 10:44 amAgreed. That's why I say Doctson and it isn't close. IMO he has WR1 upside and I would take that all day over a guy that at his best is producing WR3 play with the occasional WR2 week.Sterling Archer wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2017 6:53 am I'm all about punting WR3 type guys for WR1 upside.
There is NOTHING that we know about Doctson that tells us he has a much higher potential ceiling than Matthews. In fact, while JMatt has had some real rough spots at times, he HAS shown top-15 upside (in a PPR, when given enough volume) in flashes.
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Re: Doctson or JMatt
No there is a difference. My magical devil-you-dont-know thinking here is that I speak of thinking Doctson having this upside based off of an opinion. That's the IMO part. IMO he has that, and that is based on all sorts of factors that form my opinion, the most important downfall of it being solely an opinion and reason you can still get him at J Matt prices is unfortunately all he has is 2 games under his belt, 6 professional NFL targets, so yeah its purely a speculation and opinion.lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:03 am Saying that Doctson has some magical WR1 upside that's nonexistent for Matthews is nothing more than Devil-I-Don't-Know flawed thinking. Don't get me wrong, I fall prey to that too, but it is FLAWED thinking.
There is NOTHING that we know about Doctson that tells us he has a much higher potential ceiling than Matthews. In fact, while JMatt has had some real rough spots at times, he HAS shown top-15 upside (in a PPR, when given enough volume) in flashes.
What is the devilish thinking here is that some people here are choosing to interpret the "facts" in a way that only back's their narrative. How is it a fact that J-Matt has shown top-15 upside?
Week 1 of the 2016 NFL season he finished as a top 15 WR
Week 8 same year he finished as a top 15 WR (AB, ODB, Landry all on BYE)
That's it in 2016. He had 8 games of 9 or more targets and only 2 games with a top 15 finish. One of those weeks he didn't have to compete to be in that top 15 with 3 legitimate top 15 options.
2015 it was the same story.
Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season a top 15 finish
Week 9 same year (Fitz, Baldwin, Tate, Maclin & Nuk all on BYE)
He did finish he year with 3 games, weeks 15, 16 & 17 with top 15 finishes
While the 3 games at the end of the year showed promise, he still had 6 games of 9 or more targets, 9 with 8 or more and finished as a top 15 option what 5 times. Once where 5 other WR's were on BYE and 3 other games at the end of the season, I cant remember back then who was and wasn't already wrapped up for the season and starting non-starters at that point but I would be willing to bet there was at least one if not two of those last three games where that was the case.
But my point is that's the difference. Doctson hasn't show anything to back him having the opinion of being an NFL WR1 other than what we saw of him on college tape and preseason games/camps. J Matt has 3 seasons under his belt, and I just showed in the last 2 that he had the volume (17 games of 8 or more targets) and he finished as a top 15 WR in 7 weeks. Seven weeks out of the past 2 years he had a top 15 finish. 2 of those 7 he was missing some very key regular top 15 contributors, and 3 weeks came at the very end of one year, and I dont recall if any of those games we could say he was getting the team at full strength. J Matt has games on the record that show he is a WR3 with WR2 flashes. And there is nothing wrong with that. But if you think Doctson is for real then you move a WR3 with WR2 flashes for him before it takes quite a bit more to get him.
Appreciate the good back and forth lucky, and respect that you have your opinion, I just see it differently.
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Re: Doctson or JMatt
I'll take the guy who actually might be in my starting lineup with some high upside. And that's not gonna be a slot receiver that's probably splitting time with possibly Agholor. Give me Doctson all day while J Matt owners need to sell drops mcghee already.
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Re: Doctson or JMatt
While I won't argue against Doctson, I would take Matthews personally.Death_From_Above wrote: ↑Sat Jul 01, 2017 6:44 pmNo there is a difference. My magical devil-you-dont-know thinking here is that I speak of thinking Doctson having this upside based off of an opinion. That's the IMO part. IMO he has that, and that is based on all sorts of factors that form my opinion, the most important downfall of it being solely an opinion and reason you can still get him at J Matt prices is unfortunately all he has is 2 games under his belt, 6 professional NFL targets, so yeah its purely a speculation and opinion.lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:03 am Saying that Doctson has some magical WR1 upside that's nonexistent for Matthews is nothing more than Devil-I-Don't-Know flawed thinking. Don't get me wrong, I fall prey to that too, but it is FLAWED thinking.
There is NOTHING that we know about Doctson that tells us he has a much higher potential ceiling than Matthews. In fact, while JMatt has had some real rough spots at times, he HAS shown top-15 upside (in a PPR, when given enough volume) in flashes.
What is the devilish thinking here is that some people here are choosing to interpret the "facts" in a way that only back's their narrative. How is it a fact that J-Matt has shown top-15 upside?
Week 1 of the 2016 NFL season he finished as a top 15 WR
Week 8 same year he finished as a top 15 WR (AB, ODB, Landry all on BYE)
That's it in 2016. He had 8 games of 9 or more targets and only 2 games with a top 15 finish. One of those weeks he didn't have to compete to be in that top 15 with 3 legitimate top 15 options.
2015 it was the same story.
Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season a top 15 finish
Week 9 same year (Fitz, Baldwin, Tate, Maclin & Nuk all on BYE)
He did finish he year with 3 games, weeks 15, 16 & 17 with top 15 finishes
While the 3 games at the end of the year showed promise, he still had 6 games of 9 or more targets, 9 with 8 or more and finished as a top 15 option what 5 times. Once where 5 other WR's were on BYE and 3 other games at the end of the season, I cant remember back then who was and wasn't already wrapped up for the season and starting non-starters at that point but I would be willing to bet there was at least one if not two of those last three games where that was the case.
But my point is that's the difference. Doctson hasn't show anything to back him having the opinion of being an NFL WR1 other than what we saw of him on college tape and preseason games/camps. J Matt has 3 seasons under his belt, and I just showed in the last 2 that he had the volume (17 games of 8 or more targets) and he finished as a top 15 WR in 7 weeks. Seven weeks out of the past 2 years he had a top 15 finish. 2 of those 7 he was missing some very key regular top 15 contributors, and 3 weeks came at the very end of one year, and I dont recall if any of those games we could say he was getting the team at full strength. J Matt has games on the record that show he is a WR3 with WR2 flashes. And there is nothing wrong with that. But if you think Doctson is for real then you move a WR3 with WR2 flashes for him before it takes quite a bit more to get him.
Appreciate the good back and forth lucky, and respect that you have your opinion, I just see it differently.
Your argument, although well laid out, has a pretty glaring flaw. The entire argument revolves around his target volume and assumes he should be putting up consistent top 15 numbers given that volume, but isn't.
1. There were 28 players with more targets than Matthews last year. It's not like he was getting top 15 volume.
2. His QB was passing rather erratically and for a very low yard per completion. Not all targets are created equal. What would he have done with 117 targets from Aaron Rodgers? I'd venture more than Davante Adams managed on 146 targets, but that's just my opinion.
My point is, saying he's not good or has low upside because he wasn't top 15 on his target volume is flawed in two ways. He didn't have a top 15 volume of targets, and those targets were poor quality.
I'll wait to see where he may end up come '18 before placing any longer-term projections on him.
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Re: Doctson or JMatt
I don't disagree that "not all targets are equal", nor does the volume assume he should be a top 15 option. That was the explanation given or the one I interpreted from the previous stance. That he has shown top 15 upside when given volume. I was trying to show that Matthews produces as a WR3 with WR2 upside, even with the higher volume given to him.Valhalla wrote: ↑Sat Jul 01, 2017 11:42 pm Your argument, although well laid out, has a pretty glaring flaw. The entire argument revolves around his target volume and assumes he should be putting up consistent top 15 numbers given that volume, but isn't.
1. There were 28 players with more targets than Matthews last year. It's not like he was getting top 15 volume.
2. His QB was passing rather erratically and for a very low yard per completion. Not all targets are created equal. What would he have done with 117 targets from Aaron Rodgers? I'd venture more than Davante Adams managed on 146 targets, but that's just my opinion.
My point is, saying he's not good or has low upside because he wasn't top 15 on his target volume is flawed in two ways. He didn't have a top 15 volume of targets, and those targets were poor quality.
I'll wait to see where he may end up come '18 before placing any longer-term projections on him.
lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:03 am In fact, while JMatt has had some real rough spots at times, he HAS shown top-15 upside (in a PPR, when given enough volume) in flashes.
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Re: Doctson or JMatt
If JMatt is your WR#2, then you are in serious trouble. He put up numbers similar to Ted Ginn, Boldin, Inman, Beasley, etc last year...those are the epitome of waiver wire pick ups.
I have no idea if Doctson will ever outproduce JMatt, but when are you ever confidently starting JMatt? I would much rather gamble on the upside (and downside) of Doctson at this point....especially if I could buy him for JMatt.
Having said that, I think if you can buy JMatt low (and Docston is not low), I would do that incase he goes to a better situation next year.
I have no idea if Doctson will ever outproduce JMatt, but when are you ever confidently starting JMatt? I would much rather gamble on the upside (and downside) of Doctson at this point....especially if I could buy him for JMatt.
Having said that, I think if you can buy JMatt low (and Docston is not low), I would do that incase he goes to a better situation next year.
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