C. Meredith or K. White

[Sterling Archer]

I agree there's a chance he's an undrafted gem, but more likely than not, his stats last year were a product of circumstance.

That is a possibility. However, his stats last season were very good and not fluky. I was skeptical of Meredith as well, but he did very well last season. Bears QB's were actually better when they targeted him (100.1 passer rating). Not to mention, he's a very sound route runner. If you go back and watch most of his receptions, he's getting open frequently. Meredith is likely going to see 100+ targets and be the preferred possession receiver.

White is more talented and has a higher draft pedigree, and I was a huge fan of his coming out of college. However, he's at a huge disadvantage because he's raw and hasn't played many games. Also, he's the same age as Meredith. If White can play well next season after missing 88% of his first two seasons, then his upside is higher than we previously thought.

If you're someone who wants to hit a home run, even if it means striking out, then buy White.
If you're someone who just wants to get on base by any means necessary, then buy Meredith.

Same can be said for Aiken but he still got passed over.

But when 56% of Meredith's fantasy points came when his team was down 2+ scores, you can't say his stats weren't fluky. Defenses were probably playing soft, giving up the short plays to prevent the long plays. Just to give some frame of reference, here is that % for some random other WRs - Wallace-15%, Julio-30%, Crabtree-29%, R.Matthews-40%, E.Sanders-31%

I own stock in Cam, but would probably still opt for White as the player with the higher (perceived) ceiling.

That said, I'm curious why people are so dismissive of Cam. He doesn't have draft pedigree as an UDFA, but he didn't play WR until his junior year at Illinois State. Even with a great senior year, the sample size was small, making him a virtual unknown, and he also had the small school bias working against him. Given the fact that he's only been a WR for four years total, there's still plenty of room to grow. And it's not like he looked bad last year. He showed well despite the Bears' revolving sh*t show at QB and overall lack of talent.

Not saying he's going to be the next Rod Smith, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss him as Kamar Aiken 2.0 either.

Calling him Aiken 2.0 isn't actually dismissing him. Aiken actually looks like a pretty good WR, IMO, and I expect that to show up this year when he beats out Dorsett to be the WR3 in Indy (and he'll really get a chance to shine if Moncrief gets hurt yet again). But being an undrafted guy who puts up decent numbers while everyone else is hurt can still equal getting looked over by the coaching staff. Meredith could be a good WR and still have the Bears draft/sign a WR1 next year (if White fails or is injured this year).

[Vcize]

But when 56% of Meredith's fantasy points came when his team was down 2+ scores, you can't say his stats weren't fluky. Defenses were probably playing soft, giving up the short plays to prevent the long plays. Just to give some frame of reference, here is that % for some random other WRs - Wallace-15%, Julio-30%, Crabtree-29%, R.Matthews-40%, E.Sanders-31%

Where are you getting this figure? NFL.com shows 21-330-3 when trailing by 9+ points, which is 72 out of his 179.5 fantasy points or 40%.

Obviously guys like Julio who's teams aren't generally down by 2+ scores often are going to have a lower % of points scored in those situations. Other guys on bad teams weren't that different though. Michael Thomas was 31-402-2 (32%). Jarvis Landry 50-496-2 (49%). Deandre Hopkins 36-469-2 (48%).

[Generic Username]

I'm a little confused as to why "56% of his production came when down by 2+ scores" is all that important or indicative of something?

First, it's slightly more than half of his production, which means the other half came in situations when the team was down by less than 2 scores or ahead? Wouldn't that indicate a close to even involvement in the offense?

Second, the other WRs and their production in same deficit situations: how often were they in that position compared to Chicago? I can't imagine Julio or Crabtree seeing such occasions all that often last year.

Third, and unrelated to the above, he's often credited with good numbers because everyone was injured (paraphrasing). Well, Alshon is gone, White is still his own health question mark self, and they didn't draft anyone of significance. I'd say his opportunity remains the same

[Cameron Giles]

Same can be said for Aiken but he still got passed over.

But when 56% of Meredith's fantasy points came when his team was down 2+ scores, you can't say his stats weren't fluky. Defenses were probably playing soft, giving up the short plays to prevent the long plays. Just to give some frame of reference, here is that % for some random other WRs - Wallace-15%, Julio-30%, Crabtree-29%, R.Matthews-40%, E.Sanders-31%

To me, garbage time stats are only relevant if someone low on the depth chart is racking up numbers. Otherwise, someone like Meredith, who is the WR1 on his team, is going to be targeted whether the Bears are up 14 or down 14.

The coverages weren't soft. He was just winning consistently.

[Goddard]

This poll is like a good horse race. They keep going back and forth on who takes the lead.

[Sterling Archer]

But when 56% of Meredith's fantasy points came when his team was down 2+ scores, you can't say his stats weren't fluky. Defenses were probably playing soft, giving up the short plays to prevent the long plays. Just to give some frame of reference, here is that % for some random other WRs - Wallace-15%, Julio-30%, Crabtree-29%, R.Matthews-40%, E.Sanders-31%

Where are you getting this figure? NFL.com shows 21-330-3 when trailing by 9+ points, which is 72 out of his 179.5 fantasy points or 40%.

Obviously guys like Julio who's teams aren't generally down by 2+ scores often are going to have a lower % of points scored in those situations. Other guys on bad teams weren't that different though. Michael Thomas was 31-402-2 (32%). Jarvis Landry 50-496-2 (49%). Deandre Hopkins 36-469-2 (48%).

From another website - they use 0ppr, though.

[Sterling Archer]

I'm a little confused as to why "56% of his production came when down by 2+ scores" is all that important or indicative of something?

First, it's slightly more than half of his production, which means the other half came in situations when the team was down by less than 2 scores or ahead? Wouldn't that indicate a close to even involvement in the offense?

Second, the other WRs and their production in same deficit situations: how often were they in that position compared to Chicago? I can't imagine Julio or Crabtree seeing such occasions all that often last year.

Third, and unrelated to the above, he's often credited with good numbers because everyone was injured (paraphrasing). Well, Alshon is gone, White is still his own health question mark self, and they didn't draft anyone of significance. I'd say his opportunity remains the same

1) No, it means he's only really producing when teams aren't trying that hard to cover him. Much easier to play against prevent defense.

2) It's true that some teams just weren't down that much that often, but that means teams were playing those guys closer. They also probably come off the field during garbage time to stay safe. Meredith was out there racking up fantasy points during garbage time, though.

3) I've said several times, Meredith has a good shot of putting up points this year if White busts or gets injured - so I'm agreeing with you there. However, it is very likely he's overlooked in long term plans, making him a questionable dynasty asset. On the other hand, if White looks decent, he's going to get every chance to succeed.

[Sterling Archer]

Same can be said for Aiken but he still got passed over.

But when 56% of Meredith's fantasy points came when his team was down 2+ scores, you can't say his stats weren't fluky. Defenses were probably playing soft, giving up the short plays to prevent the long plays. Just to give some frame of reference, here is that % for some random other WRs - Wallace-15%, Julio-30%, Crabtree-29%, R.Matthews-40%, E.Sanders-31%

To me, garbage time stats are only relevant if someone low on the depth chart is racking up numbers. Otherwise, someone like Meredith, who is the WR1 on his team, is going to be targeted whether the Bears are up 14 or down 14.

The coverages weren't soft. He was just winning consistently.

Garbage time stats are low hanging fruit that's not guaranteed one year to the next. It's unpredictable like TDs, so it's best to take that into account when looking at last year's stats and projecting the coming year's stats. It's often overlooked, leading to people overdrafting that player the next year, expecting things to stay linear.

[FFKT_Van]

If we're comparing Bears WRs, this poll should really be Kevin White vs Markus Wheaton or Kevin White vs Kendall Wright...

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

I have one share of each, both in a league I don't consider that important, so I feel like I am pretty unbiased here lol. For me, it is Meredith.

Meredith and White are the same age and have the same amount of pro experience. White has more experience playing WR at the college level. Still, when White went down last year, the Bears plugged Meredith in the same way they were using White, and Meredith did better.

Also, it seems like people are underselling Meredith's athletic ability here. White had a faster 40, but otherwise they are pretty darn similar from the standpoint of size, jumping ability, quickness, and catch radius. White's ceiling might be a bit higher, but we are not talking Donte Moncrief vs. Kamar Aiken here.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Also, the Bears were 4-12. The fact that Meredith scored half his points when they were down big is just another way to say the Bears stunk last year.

[CM21VE]

Kind of surprised at this poll, 50/50...I figured most would have been on the Cam M train..Whites needs to do something this year though or well he's toast

[bsp27]

Kevin White will be remembered as one of the biggest busts in NFL history.

[cvbuc]

I don't think I've ever seen a poll this even after so many votes. Wow.

[joeya2001]

I cant believe its 50/50 lol

Meredith all day!