Jordan Matthews vs Alshon Jeffery

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crisdecamposmd
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Jordan Matthews vs Alshon Jeffery

Postby crisdecamposmd » Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:53 pm

How do you see these guys playing out over the next 1 year? Next 4 years?

Personally, I think J-Matt is consistently undervalued, mainly from extrinsic factors of being in Philadelphia (the fans are horrible and will find something to complain about with just about anybody--usually it's Matthews drops, which are really around average for an NFL WR) + coaching changes + lack of any surrounding cast + forcing him to play slot mostly (limits YAC and yards/reception) + rookie QBs (I think if Bradford stayed in Philly Matthews would have gained a few hundred more yards in 2016).

And I recently came across an article by Sam Feldman from September 2016 in which Matthews' comparisons are Alshon Jeffery, Larry Fitzgerald, AJ Green, Jordy Nelson, and Eric Decker:
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Jordan Matthews does not profile as just some average slot receiver based on his athleticism. He stands 6 foot 3 inches tall and measures in at 216 pounds. Additionally, his 4.46 (75th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash, 110.1 (89th-percentile) Height-adjusted Speed Score, and 11.13 (58th-percentile) Agility Score all contribute to his 91st-percentile SPARQ-x Score. His only sub 50-percentile athletic score is his 120.4 (45th-percentile) Burst Score. Overall, Matthews stellar athletic profile provides him with a 10.18 (82nd-percentile) Catch Radius.

Jordan Matthews athletically profiles as the prototypical Split End, and some of his top athletic comparisons are just that as well. Matthews most resembles Alshon Jeffery according to our algorithms. When looking through Jeffery’s comparisons, other notable receivers like A.J. Green, Larry Fitzgerald, and Jordy Nelson all appear. If anything, Matthews has the prerequisite athleticism to excel at split end on the outside based on the wide receiver athletic prototype he has.

Even if Jordan Matthews does not become a full time split end for the Eagles this year, he deserves respect among the fantasy and real football communities. Another receiver who Matthews compares to, and whom he has been used most like to date, is Eric Decker, who, like Matthews, stands 6 foot 3 inches tall, and weighs 215 pounds.

Jordan Matthews compares to Eric Decker in more ways than just size and where they lineup. Although college statistics are predictors for when players enter the league, Matthews is an upgraded Decker when it comes to college statistics. Matthews posted a 48.3 percent (93rd percentile) College Dominator Rating with an 18.1 (100th percentile) Breakout Age; comparatively, Decker posted a 44.5 (87th percentile) College Dominator Rating with a 20.5 (49th percentile) Breakout Age. Nobody has broken out at an age younger than Matthews, and almost nobody has a stronger College Dominator Rating than he; as a prospect, it is tough to find one better than Matthews.

Additionally, at the next level, Jordan Matthews and Eric Decker still compare to each other. To emphasize their similar roles, both produced 7.8 yards per target in 2015; Decker produced 12.8 yards per reception while Matthews posted 11.7 yards per reception. Both players had top 15 Red Zone Target Shares (Matthews 13th, and Decker 1st), top 36 Production Premiums (Matthews 27th, and Decker 36th), and top 36 Target Premiums (Matthews 31st, and Decker 10th). All these similarities led to Matthews producing 85 receptions, 997 yards, and 8 touchdowns on only 128 targets; Decker hauled in 80 receptions, 1,027 yards, and 12 touchdowns on 132 targets.

Jordan Matthews and Eric Decker are eerily similar receivers, and Matthews is only looking up going into year three. His Snap Share, Target Share, and Hog Rate steadily improved from year one to year two in the league, and we should expect the same for year three. Through two years, Matthews has 152 receptions, 1,869 receiving yards, and 16 touchdowns on 229 targets. Using Pro Football Reference, only 17 wide receivers have produced at least 120 receptions for 1,600 yards and 12 touchdowns in their first two years by the age of 23, and the list has quite the names. Get your hands on Matthews now before his ascension takes him even higher than he already is!
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Last edited by crisdecamposmd on Fri May 05, 2017 6:02 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Jordan Matthews vs Alshon Jeffery

Postby senska11 » Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:44 am

Alshon by a long ways. Only way it gets even close is if he signs with a horrible team/situation next year.

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Re: Jordan Matthews vs Alshon Jeffery

Postby Goddard » Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:53 am

Alshon is definitely the better talent. Hard to say how he'll do over the next 4 years because we don't know where he'll be playing, but if he stays healthy, I'd have to imagine he's out producing Jmatt.

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Re: Jordan Matthews vs Alshon Jeffery

Postby crisdecamposmd » Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:53 pm

senska11 wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:44 am Alshon by a long ways. Only way it gets even close is if he signs with a horrible team/situation next year.
I'd love your thoughts and feedback on the edit I made to my original posting.

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Re: Jordan Matthews vs Alshon Jeffery

Postby crisdecamposmd » Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:54 pm

Goddard wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:53 am Alshon is definitely the better talent. Hard to say how he'll do over the next 4 years because we don't know where he'll be playing, but if he stays healthy, I'd have to imagine he's out producing Jmatt.
I'd love to get your thoughts and feedback on the edit I made to the original posting.

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Re: Jordan Matthews vs Alshon Jeffery

Postby Steelersfan » Sun Apr 23, 2017 6:37 pm

Jeffery for me by a considerable amount.

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Re: Jordan Matthews vs Alshon Jeffery

Postby senska11 » Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:27 am

crisdecamposmd wrote: Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:53 pm
senska11 wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:44 am Alshon by a long ways. Only way it gets even close is if he signs with a horrible team/situation next year.
I'd love your thoughts and feedback on the edit I made to my original posting.
I actually agree that Matthews is undervalued - and I own quite a few shares of him. I'd consider him a buy right now. That being said, I'm still taking Jeffery, both in dynasty and real life NFL.

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Re: Jordan Matthews vs Alshon Jeffery

Postby Goddard » Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:37 am

senska11 wrote: Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:27 am
crisdecamposmd wrote: Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:53 pm
senska11 wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:44 am Alshon by a long ways. Only way it gets even close is if he signs with a horrible team/situation next year.
I'd love your thoughts and feedback on the edit I made to my original posting.
I actually agree that Matthews is undervalued - and I own quite a few shares of him. I'd consider him a buy right now. That being said, I'm still taking Jeffery, both in dynasty and real life NFL.
Basically this. I like Matthews, but if you're going to compare him to Jeffery, than you're hoping he can become him. So why not go with the guy who's already proven.

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Re: Jordan Matthews vs Alshon Jeffery

Postby bsp27 » Fri May 05, 2017 7:16 am

Give me Matthews a few rounds later easily.
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Re: Jordan Matthews vs Alshon Jeffery

Postby Alex116 » Fri May 05, 2017 2:42 pm

benpickering44 wrote: Fri May 05, 2017 7:16 am Give me Matthews a few rounds later easily.
Exactly this ^

If I have the choice between either with only one pick left (hypothetically the last pick in a draft), it's AJ. I do love me some JMatt but unless I'm getting value by using a later round pick, there's no point. That's not saying I think we've seen the best of JMatt, nor is it saying AJ will stay healthy, but given the chance to take either, I'm taking Alshon Jeffery all day every day.

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Re: Jordan Matthews vs Alshon Jeffery

Postby TheDogPound » Fri May 05, 2017 5:53 pm

Goddard wrote: Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:37 am
senska11 wrote: Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:27 am
crisdecamposmd wrote: Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:53 pm

I'd love your thoughts and feedback on the edit I made to my original posting.
I actually agree that Matthews is undervalued - and I own quite a few shares of him. I'd consider him a buy right now. That being said, I'm still taking Jeffery, both in dynasty and real life NFL.
Basically this. I like Matthews, but if you're going to compare him to Jeffery, than you're hoping he can become him. So why not go with the guy who's already proven.
I completely agree with this statement. I am a JMatt owner and I do love this post breaking down measurables and JMatt comparisons. Year 3 is known to be a WR's breakout year. I am surely hoping that JMatt will break out this year! He and Wentz did seem to develop a bit of chemistry last season. However, there are a lot of mouths to feed now in Philly. This could either be a detriment for JMatt or will take pressure off of him and open up more opportunities. The common consensus is that JMatt is a slot WR. Although his measurables seem to have him more as an outside WR.

I'd still go with Alshon if choosing between the two. He's shown elite dominate WR1 abilities. If he can stay helathy then he's a top 5 WR. He even shined when Brandon Marshall was at his best. JMatt has shown promise but it hasn't been to the height of what Alshon has shown, IMO.


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