2017 Rookie Top 6 Bust Potential

[PRESxWASHINGTON]

Who does everybody think has the highest bust potential in terms of work ethic, developing NFL skills, injuries, attitude and baggage? I am probably missing some sort of criteria that comes along with a prospect busting so please add if you can think of anything. I bring this up bc statistics say not all of these guys are going to legit. I see a lot of these guys as being even in terms of value so the bust potential is what I am looking at to help tier them.
Of the top 6 prospects (LF, Cook, Davis, Williams, Mixon and CM) what is your order in terms of bust potential?
I see it as:
1. Cook: fumbles issues, build, blocking
2. Mixon: baggage and his leash will be short
3. CM: honestly love his work ethic and skill but could be a gimmicky guy
4. LF: work ethic question marks, runs too upright
5. Williams
6. Davis

[lukkynumber13]

I've never heard anyone question Fournette's work ethic...

[lukkynumber13]

Mike Williams, I'm afraid he will top out as KB.

[Dyno_7]

My biggest concerns are with McCaffery & Cook. They have the smallest builds, can they hold up over 16 games?
Next is Williams. Can he get separation in the NFL? That's everyone's biggest concern. Treadwell II?
Fournette is next, but only because he might be the 1st RB drafted and he'll go to a bad team that wants him to run out of the shotgun. He's a downhill guy that wants the ball from the I.

I actually think Davis & Mixon are the two best players and are the safest bets. Davis is a pro, through & through period. Mixon knows the microscope he's under. Whoever drafts him will make sure the proper expectations are set. I'm not worried about Mixon's behavior one bit.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Mike Williams, I'm afraid he will top out as KB.

I wouldn't really say that'd be a bust though, that's sort of what he's projected to be.

[onetwothree]

I've never heard anyone question Fournette's work ethic...

Skipped bowl game narrative that fits into people's preconceived biases against him justified or not.

I'm probably most worried about Cook. Injury question marks, character red flags and now the athleticism profile (lack thereof).

Least worried about McCaffrey. Don't know if he'll be a superstar but I expect a long productive career.

[Cherokee]

Fournette is my biggest bust candidate

[turfhero]

Who does everybody think has the highest bust potential in terms of work ethic, developing NFL skills, injuries, attitude and baggage? I am probably missing some sort of criteria that comes along with a prospect busting so please add if you can think of anything. I bring this up bc statistics say not all of these guys are going to legit. I see a lot of these guys as being even in terms of value so the bust potential is what I am looking at to help tier them.
Of the top 6 prospects (LF, Cook, Davis, Williams, Mixon and CM) what is your order in terms of bust potential?
I see it as:
1. Cook: fumbles issues, build, blocking
2. Mixon: baggage and his leash will be short
3. CM: honestly love his work ethic and skill but could be a gimmicky guy
4. LF: work ethic question marks, runs too upright
5. Williams
6. Davis

Nothing worries me about Fournette period. That upright style is fine if you're a bowling ball. Legarette Blount runs up right and is labelled by most in the NFL as the hardest back to tackle, especially safeties that get their bell rung once he hits the second level. If "bust" is labelled on a fantasy perspective, I'd minimally agree with this because everyone wants that Bell/DJ/Freeman/Murray that are exceptional 2 way players. Fournette will probably be limited as a 2 down back (right away) but AP or even a young Alfred Morris have shown 2 down backs can light up fantasy league as long as carries are there. I try to remind myself this is a fantasy football forum, but the bust label can be applied 2 different ways. Fantasy or Real life.

[turfhero]

Who does everybody think has the highest bust potential in terms of work ethic, developing NFL skills, injuries, attitude and baggage? I am probably missing some sort of criteria that comes along with a prospect busting so please add if you can think of anything. I bring this up bc statistics say not all of these guys are going to legit. I see a lot of these guys as being even in terms of value so the bust potential is what I am looking at to help tier them.
Of the top 6 prospects (LF, Cook, Davis, Williams, Mixon and CM) what is your order in terms of bust potential?
I see it as:
1. Cook: fumbles issues, build, blocking
2. Mixon: baggage and his leash will be short
3. CM: honestly love his work ethic and skill but could be a gimmicky guy
4. LF: work ethic question marks, runs too upright
5. Williams
6. Davis

Nothing worries me about Fournette period. That upright style is fine if you're a bowling ball. Legarette Blount runs up right and is labelled by most in the NFL as the hardest back to tackle, especially safeties that get their bell rung once he hits the second level. If "bust" is labelled on a fantasy perspective, I'd minimally agree with this because everyone wants that Bell/DJ/Freeman/Murray that are exceptional 2 way players. Fournette will probably be limited as a 2 down back (right away) but AP or even a young Alfred Morris have shown 2 down backs can light up fantasy league as long as carries are there. I try to remind myself this is a fantasy football forum, but the bust label can be applied 2 different ways. Fantasy or Real life.

Forgot to comment on the work ethic part as well. Fournette has been considered one of the top running backs in college for 3 years, he played a lot longer than I would have. I would have been pulling a Clowney once my name got mentioned as a 1st round pick. The man has to protect his draft position to cash in on as big of a payday as possible. Marcus Lattimore is the reason I accept these players doing this. Man lost out on millions because of a meaningless play even though he was the best RB in college.

[clarion contrarion]

while his bust potential seems low my thought on corey davis is that after a quick look at the all time MAC wr and their production in the league when the best NFL products over the years on the list are
antonio brown - 6th round elite option but complete freak occurance for any pick let alone a 6th rounder
greg jennings - 2nd round really good nfl player
willie snead - udfa nice story couple decent seasons after he was not good enough to be a brown
kevin walter - 7th round 5th year breakout of sorts just a complimentary player
lance moore - udfa few decent seasons w/ brees as his qb
justin mccareins - 4th round - workman like player decent season or two
tajae sharpe - 5th round much left to prove probably JAG
that list leaves much to be desired especially considering the 3 rd best wr ever from the MAC in terms of NFL production was a qb in school
one julian edelman after that we have a lot of mediocrity at best .

Add in the fact that jordan white , titus davis ( corey's older brother) and martin nance who all recently have piled up huge # in the MAC have not made a dent in the league does anyone else wonder if what may be perceived as the wr1 in this class could completely flame out ?
I know it is heresy on this site with its love for WR in general and corey davis in particular could be a colossal bust drafted in the top 15or 20 and in the top 5 in every rookie draft ?

overkill sidenote of the top 250+ MAC runners
don nottingham michael turner
james starks bernie parmalee
bernard pierce & chester taylor were the only names that jumped out as having much value

there were a few more ancillary players like brandon oliver , garrett wolfe and josh cribbs but mostly the MAC delivers damned little to the NFL in terms non QB skill position players . This post has grown far too long and meandering but you have been warned about kareem hunt and corey davis .

SIDE NOTE : randy moss did tear apart the MAC w/ chad pennington for 1 season but in truth he wasn't a MAC talent he was an notre dame FSU guy that ended there as a necessity after burning some bridges also ahmad bradshaw played his freshman year of MAC ball before MARSHALL left for CUSA totaling 649 yards of offense and 5tds.

[Honey Badgers]

I've never heard anyone question Fournette's work ethic...

Skipped bowl game narrative that fits into people's preconceived biases against him justified or not.

I bet Jake Butt wishes he skipped his bowl game...its a smart business decision for these guys.

[ELSOUZA]

the camp side fire talk re Fournette is he skipped bowl game to purportedly train for the combine and then came in slightly overweight for aforementioned combine... Personally think thats ridiculous. The dude is amazing.

[ELSOUZA]

Mike Williams, I'm afraid he will top out as KB.

I agree. I want to believe but im wary.

[Servo]

Good thoughts on Corey Davis, so I wanted to just go check and see his stats against D1-Power schools (which I'm sure has already been covered a good deal):

'13

8 for 96, TD vs. Sparty
5 for 112, TD vs. NWstern
2 for 11, vs. Iowa

'14
4 for 46, TD vs. Purdue
8 for 176, 3 TD vs. Air Force (Bowl Game)

'15
10 for 154, TD vs. Sparty
6 for 42, vs. Ohio State
8 for 183, TD vs. Middle Tenn (Meh, Bowl Game)

'16
7 for 70, vs. NWstern
4 for 97, vs. Illinois
6 for 73, TD vs. Wisc (Bowl Game)

[schiewerma21]

Fournette to me. Too many red flags from his combine. Also before I start know that skipping drills means your worried about a negative. Otherwise there is absolutely no reason to. It also shows lack of competitiveness and heart.

First he comes in overweight. "Meh whatever it's 5 lbs" my concern: blames it on "water weight"

Second he oddly doesn't bench press. The only other rb period to not do this was jamaal Williams. Your the heaviest back in the class why not bench?
(We know why) but then he says he will do everything tomorrow which is the stuff we care most about anyway. Meh moving on.

Third (most important to me) his interview was TERRIBLE. Please go you tube this. The guy says he never dreamed of being in the NFL and all this stuff TWICE in the first four minutes. He also answers a question about which rb he watches and who he looks up to and answers "no one"
Some of you will brush this off I don't. I follow ALL these top prospects on instragram and twitter because I want to get a feel for who they are. Fournette is posting watches and cars and being courtside while his competition is in the gym. (Most of them) and quite frankly it shows.

Fourth, so let's move on to the big day. Fournette starts the day off jumping literally the Worst vertical since 2010... he actually tied the amazingly unathletic Alex Collins in this mark. Again most brush this off and maybe it's not a big deal... but the worst? Worst in class AND worst in 7 years? Maybe it's nothing....

He then proceeds to skip the broad cause he knows it will be equally terrible. Smart move, but shows lack of preparation and willingness to compete.

Finally the big 40!!! Vegas (who is pretty decent at this stuff) puts over under at 4.43. He underwhelms in this from that number running a 4.51. Still a great time best size speed score in class (until foreman) so cool.

One last thing: he then SKIPS all the other agility and accelaration drills which is really what all us scouts wanted to see because that's the area we weren't sold on. Again, shows lack of heart and willingness to compete. Cook may have bombed the drills... but atleast he had the balls to do them.