Michel for Golladay?

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ProfPoobah
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Michel for Golladay?

Postby ProfPoobah » Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:01 am

My league's (12 team auction, .5 PPR, $200 cap, start 1QB/2RB/3WR/TE/K/D, player values go up $5/year) deadline for protecting 10 people is Friday, and I'm mulling a trade offer while trying to iron out my last couple of keeper candidates. My keeper candidates:

QB - Luck ($13)
RB - Cook ($27), Chubb ($11), Michel ($15), Guice ($7), Freeman ($21)
WR - Diggs ($21), Godwin ($9), Sutton ($8), Fuller ($15), Jeffery ($16)
TE - Kittle ($10), Henry ($6)

My 7 lock keepers, barring trade, are above. They cost $100. Luck is about a lock. I think Henry's value is too good to throw away. Sutton has an edge for me because of his lower price point, though Fuller is likely to perform better in 2019, injuries notwithstanding.

I offered Freeman and Jeffery for Kenny Golladay ($10) but got a quick no. The other owner countered, asking for Chubb, and I gave him a quick no. Seeing my roster requirements, log of good but not great keeper options for my last couple of spots, and space available, would you offer Michel for Golladay? If so, that makes Freeman a mandatory keeper, right? And then who gets the last spot or two (if you don't think Luck is a lock)?

Thanks for the help!
Team 1 - 10-Team SF Full PPR - QB/2RB/2WR/TE/SF/3FLEX
QB - Jackson/Fields/Prescott/Garoppolo/Brissett/Lance
RB - Bijan/Breece/Stevenson/Foreman/Kelley/Hull/DJackson
WR - Chase/AJBrown/Wilson/Nucua/DJohnson/EMoore/Chark/DRobinson
TE - LaPorta/McBride/Fant
TAXI - Levis/Shaheed/Perry/Scott/Iosivas/CJones/Dulcich/Kraft/Likely/DAllen
2024 - 1.08, 2.02, 4.01
2025 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 4
2026 - 1, 2, 3, 4

Team 2 - 12-Team SF Full PPR - TE .5 Prem - QB/RB/2WR/SF/4FLEX
QB - Jackson/Goff/Murray/Ridder/Brissett
RB - KWilliams/Swift/AJones/Dowdle
WR - Chase/Waddle/Metcalf/Higgins/Mims/Jennings
TE - JJohnson/Mallory/Woods
TAXI - Hooker/RJohnson/Spears/Chandler/Iosivas
IR - Smith-Schuster
2024 - 1.05, 1.08, 2.02, 3.06, 3.07, 4.05
2025 - 1,2,2,2,3
2026 - 2,3,4

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moishetreats
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Re: Michel for Golladay?

Postby moishetreats » Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:11 am

I'd recommend re-framing how you look at your keepers. It seems like you're approaching it from the perspective of trying to create the best roster both in terms of talent and also a balanced team.

With salaries, though, it's about the best VALUE. There is almost no realistic way that Freeman is a value -- for you or likely for anyone. Same with Jeffrey. Or Fuller. I imagine that most teams would be just as happy to release them all and re-bid for them in free agency.

Next, look at what your upper-tier RBs and WRs go for. Are Cook and Diggs at those prices, above them, or below them? If they are or above them, then release them. You'll bid on them anew and, at worst, pay only a couple of extra bucks. If they are just a little below them, then you could keep them if you are high on them or release them if you feel that other players present greater value. If they are at a big discount, though, then lock them in.

Same with Luck. Are the top-5 or so QBs at around $18 or $20 or more? If so, then you almost assuredly have to keep Luck -- hard to find a player with that much value.

As for your specific trade, presuming that you are high on both Michel and Golladay, ask whose contract you think is the better value (i.e., how much would each likely go for as a free agent compared to their current contract). That is your default answer about which is preferable. Obviously, you will need to consider roster balance and projected free agency to some degree, but value is really the central consideration.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

ProfPoobah
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Re: Michel for Golladay?

Postby ProfPoobah » Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:23 pm

Moishetreats,

First of all, thanks for the well-considered response, and the attempt to encourage a different line of thinking. To ease your mind, let me emphatically say that I have determined that all 7 of the players I bolded are at or below the price points it would take me to acquire them again, and that I would like to have them on my team in 2019. I think I could have moved any of them in a trade if I wanted, because they do have obvious value.

Individual value is not the alpha and the omega for me, however. If I kept 10 players with excellent value, and none of them were WR, for example, I'd be damaging my chances for building a strong and balanced team. With the dollars involved, and 60-70% of my cap taken up depending on my last choices, I feel that I need to be considering what roles the players will play, as I will only be a marginal player on draft day. If Freeman were a good value, and my #5 RB, that matters if I can't move him for something, either now or later. That Golladay is an unquestioned #2 WR starter in my mind matters as much as his exact value vis-a-vis Michel, who at this moment, would be my #3 RB.

Could Michel be a starter for me? Sure, easily. Cook has a lengthy injury history, and there are questions as to Chubb's unquestioned role as the workhorse in CLE following the Hunt signing. Guice has never played a down in the regular season. Michel could be my #1 RB, and is a steal if so. He could also be nothing but a bye-week/spot starter as NE continues to cannibalize the RB position, and that matters to me even if he's marked as a better value than Golladay. Luck is one I kick around in my mind only because, while he is probably $10 lower than what I would expect him to go for, we all know how a good QB can be bought or cobbled together via committee on draft day. If I had three other slam-dunk keepers, I would likely let Luck go just for that reason, if I couldn't find a taker via trade. That no one has asked for him is also interesting to me...

Anyway, to your other point, it only takes two people in an auction to completely disrupt a player's perceived value. That said, I would project that Michel is slightly more below my perceived value of what he'd go for on draft day, were he available, than Golladay is. Assuming that I have projected these numbers correctly, of course.
Team 1 - 10-Team SF Full PPR - QB/2RB/2WR/TE/SF/3FLEX
QB - Jackson/Fields/Prescott/Garoppolo/Brissett/Lance
RB - Bijan/Breece/Stevenson/Foreman/Kelley/Hull/DJackson
WR - Chase/AJBrown/Wilson/Nucua/DJohnson/EMoore/Chark/DRobinson
TE - LaPorta/McBride/Fant
TAXI - Levis/Shaheed/Perry/Scott/Iosivas/CJones/Dulcich/Kraft/Likely/DAllen
2024 - 1.08, 2.02, 4.01
2025 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 4
2026 - 1, 2, 3, 4

Team 2 - 12-Team SF Full PPR - TE .5 Prem - QB/RB/2WR/SF/4FLEX
QB - Jackson/Goff/Murray/Ridder/Brissett
RB - KWilliams/Swift/AJones/Dowdle
WR - Chase/Waddle/Metcalf/Higgins/Mims/Jennings
TE - JJohnson/Mallory/Woods
TAXI - Hooker/RJohnson/Spears/Chandler/Iosivas
IR - Smith-Schuster
2024 - 1.05, 1.08, 2.02, 3.06, 3.07, 4.05
2025 - 1,2,2,2,3
2026 - 2,3,4

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moishetreats
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Re: Michel for Golladay?

Postby moishetreats » Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:47 am

Gotcha. Makes tons of sense!

I certainly agree with you about roster balance. Say (and I'm making it up) that Michel is 20% value based on his contract and Golladay a 15% value. But, you're stacked at RB and have no WRs. Yeah, in that case, I'd likely roll with Golladay, too, because I'd be too exposed to potentially over-paying for WRs in the draft. Of course, say that Michel's salary was 20% of his value but Golladay's 80%. There is really no way that I would take Golladay over Michel regardless of other factors.

So, yeah, I would definitely go after Golladay given what you shared.

As for Luck, speaking personally, given his high floor, high upside, and incredible value, I'd have a REALLY hard time letting him go...
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

Paul717
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Posts: 1282
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:47 am
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: Michel for Golladay?

Postby Paul717 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:15 am

ProfPoobah wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:01 am My league's (12 team auction, .5 PPR, $200 cap, start 1QB/2RB/3WR/TE/K/D, player values go up $5/year) deadline for protecting 10 people is Friday, and I'm mulling a trade offer while trying to iron out my last couple of keeper candidates. My keeper candidates:

QB - Luck ($13)
RB - Cook ($27), Chubb ($11), Michel ($15), Guice ($7), Freeman ($21)
WR - Diggs ($21), Godwin ($9), Sutton ($8), Fuller ($15), Jeffery ($16)
TE - Kittle ($10), Henry ($6)

My 7 lock keepers, barring trade, are above. They cost $100. Luck is about a lock. I think Henry's value is too good to throw away. Sutton has an edge for me because of his lower price point, though Fuller is likely to perform better in 2019, injuries notwithstanding.

I offered Freeman and Jeffery for Kenny Golladay ($10) but got a quick no. The other owner countered, asking for Chubb, and I gave him a quick no. Seeing my roster requirements, log of good but not great keeper options for my last couple of spots, and space available, would you offer Michel for Golladay? If so, that makes Freeman a mandatory keeper, right? And then who gets the last spot or two (if you don't think Luck is a lock)?

Thanks for the help!
Good dialogue on this thread. Barring any trades, I'd bold Luck, Henry, and Sutton as your gut seems to be telling you. Wouldn't shock me if Sutton out performed Fuller and Jeffery in 2019 for half the cost. #Hot take!
"Marathon Square" - 16 team full PPR league with 24 player roster. Keep 16 per year indefinitely, draft 8. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Team DST
QB: Jordan Love, Deshaun Watson
RB: Travis Etienne, Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, Kendre Miller, Jaleel McLaughlin, Sean Tucker, Deuce Vaughn
WR: A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Tee Higgins, Calvin Ridley, Michael Wilson, Kendrick Bourne, Tutu Atwell, Allen Lazard, Isaiah Hodgins, Xavier Hutchinson
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Cole Kmet, Kylen Granson
K: Didn't make the playoffs in 2023 :cry: , and don't usually hold one in the offseason
Team DST: Cowboys, Lions

Picks:
2024: All my picks except 3rd rounder

Disclaimer: My one and only Championship in this league was way back in 2011. Therefore, take my replies with the appropriate grain of salt. :lol:

ProfPoobah
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Re: Michel for Golladay?

Postby ProfPoobah » Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:44 pm

I agree, it's been a thoughtful thread, and I appreciate the feedback!!

After some thought, and realizing that using any of the players I would otherwise cut in trade offers hasn't seemed to have worked, I will shelve the Golladay acquisition plans for the moment, and can always offer Michel for him later.

I will roll with the 7 I bolded, keep Luck, keep Henry because my gut tells me too (I could always trade Kittle later as well, if my gut is right), and then acknowledge Paul's point about Sutton. Plus, I traded for Sutton last year and would like to see that pan out, at a reasonable price.

So, QB/4RB/3 WR/2 TE - $127. A very good start, but I'll need to invest in WR on draft day. Thanks again!
Team 1 - 10-Team SF Full PPR - QB/2RB/2WR/TE/SF/3FLEX
QB - Jackson/Fields/Prescott/Garoppolo/Brissett/Lance
RB - Bijan/Breece/Stevenson/Foreman/Kelley/Hull/DJackson
WR - Chase/AJBrown/Wilson/Nucua/DJohnson/EMoore/Chark/DRobinson
TE - LaPorta/McBride/Fant
TAXI - Levis/Shaheed/Perry/Scott/Iosivas/CJones/Dulcich/Kraft/Likely/DAllen
2024 - 1.08, 2.02, 4.01
2025 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 4
2026 - 1, 2, 3, 4

Team 2 - 12-Team SF Full PPR - TE .5 Prem - QB/RB/2WR/SF/4FLEX
QB - Jackson/Goff/Murray/Ridder/Brissett
RB - KWilliams/Swift/AJones/Dowdle
WR - Chase/Waddle/Metcalf/Higgins/Mims/Jennings
TE - JJohnson/Mallory/Woods
TAXI - Hooker/RJohnson/Spears/Chandler/Iosivas
IR - Smith-Schuster
2024 - 1.05, 1.08, 2.02, 3.06, 3.07, 4.05
2025 - 1,2,2,2,3
2026 - 2,3,4

Paul717
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Posts: 1282
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Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: Michel for Golladay?

Postby Paul717 » Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:01 pm

Good luck my dude! This thread makes me think of another interesting point: Why is your cut deadline so early? I assume many leagues are like this though because there are similar threads. My league's draft is as close to the end of Preseason as possible, given guys' schedules. Keeper Declaration Day (or cut day, whatever you call it), is like 2-3 days before. I don't get the allure of these March deadlines, when the draft hasn't happened and free agency isn't completely done and dusted. Then again, I guess the flip side is that everyone in my league hibernates until the summer. Lol. I get stressed when thinking about keepers in August. Can't imagine March, with so much less information. Anyway, rambling over.
"Marathon Square" - 16 team full PPR league with 24 player roster. Keep 16 per year indefinitely, draft 8. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Team DST
QB: Jordan Love, Deshaun Watson
RB: Travis Etienne, Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, Kendre Miller, Jaleel McLaughlin, Sean Tucker, Deuce Vaughn
WR: A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Tee Higgins, Calvin Ridley, Michael Wilson, Kendrick Bourne, Tutu Atwell, Allen Lazard, Isaiah Hodgins, Xavier Hutchinson
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Cole Kmet, Kylen Granson
K: Didn't make the playoffs in 2023 :cry: , and don't usually hold one in the offseason
Team DST: Cowboys, Lions

Picks:
2024: All my picks except 3rd rounder

Disclaimer: My one and only Championship in this league was way back in 2011. Therefore, take my replies with the appropriate grain of salt. :lol:

ProfPoobah
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Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:14 pm

Re: Michel for Golladay?

Postby ProfPoobah » Fri May 03, 2019 7:10 am

Paul, sorry for the delay. I kinda went into nap mode after the declaration day, and put my football energy into NFL draft stuff. But now that's over, so...

You asked about the cut deadline in this league. We actually have a two step process. We have to trim the roster to 10 "protected" players early, and this year was actually a fair bit later than usual (mid-February, give or take). Commish was lazy, and I certainly didn't call him on it, wanting the extra time to play around with my roster. The 10 I protected, I don't actually have to "keep" any of them for draft day. I can also keep all of them. In years past, injuries, re-evaluation, roster changes and the like have led me to drop a couple of the protected players before the final pre-draft cutdown, which is 1 week before draft day. I can also still try and trade, but only with those 10, so Freeman, Jeffery, Fuller, etc. are all now known to be in the draft pool.

The best non-protected players at this point are Ezekiel Elliott, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Joe Mixon, and Aaron Rodgers. It'll be interesting to see what these guys go for on draft day, and ask myself whether the two WR are worth most of my cap space. I have $73 free, and 10 players to get. I could go big on Jones or Green, and then use the rest on roster filler, upside gambles, and the like. I also see some WR and RB on the lower tiers that I could make moves for...
Team 1 - 10-Team SF Full PPR - QB/2RB/2WR/TE/SF/3FLEX
QB - Jackson/Fields/Prescott/Garoppolo/Brissett/Lance
RB - Bijan/Breece/Stevenson/Foreman/Kelley/Hull/DJackson
WR - Chase/AJBrown/Wilson/Nucua/DJohnson/EMoore/Chark/DRobinson
TE - LaPorta/McBride/Fant
TAXI - Levis/Shaheed/Perry/Scott/Iosivas/CJones/Dulcich/Kraft/Likely/DAllen
2024 - 1.08, 2.02, 4.01
2025 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 4
2026 - 1, 2, 3, 4

Team 2 - 12-Team SF Full PPR - TE .5 Prem - QB/RB/2WR/SF/4FLEX
QB - Jackson/Goff/Murray/Ridder/Brissett
RB - KWilliams/Swift/AJones/Dowdle
WR - Chase/Waddle/Metcalf/Higgins/Mims/Jennings
TE - JJohnson/Mallory/Woods
TAXI - Hooker/RJohnson/Spears/Chandler/Iosivas
IR - Smith-Schuster
2024 - 1.05, 1.08, 2.02, 3.06, 3.07, 4.05
2025 - 1,2,2,2,3
2026 - 2,3,4


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