Chris Godwin or Aaron Jones?

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ajf235
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Chris Godwin or Aaron Jones?

Postby ajf235 » Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:08 pm

In half PPR, who do you prefer from 2019-2021: Chris Godwin or Aaron Jones? And why?

I’m guessing most will say Jones. If so, what’s the gap between the two?

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Re: Chris Godwin or Aaron Jones?

Postby ProfPoobah » Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:33 pm

It obviously depends on what the rest of your roster looks like, but in a vacuum... RBs are definitely more valuable than WRs, if they're consistently producing around the same level. That said, Jones worries me a bit. He's developing an injury history. 4 games missed this year, I think, and two straight years he didn't finish the season. Throw in the suspension for the beginning of 2018, the new coaching staff coming to GB, and Jamaal Williams finally playing well in Weeks 15-16, and that's a lot of red flags for me. I posted elsewhere about Godwin just a few minutes ago. I concede that TB may also be undergoing a coaching staff overhaul. That said, he and Winston connected very well today, albeit against a banged-up defense with little to play for. However, I had worried that Godwin produced much better with Fitzmagic than Jameis. If Desean Jackson is gone, and Adam Humphries potentially follows, Evans and Godwin are a 1-2 punch any coach should want to develop.

So, ajf, if this is the league you're usually posting about, it might depend on Godwin's cost. If not, I'd want to know what the rest of your roster looks like...
Team 1 - 10-Team SF Full PPR - QB/2RB/2WR/TE/SF/3FLEX
QB - Jackson/Fields/Prescott/Garoppolo/Brissett/Lance
RB - Bijan/Breece/Stevenson/Foreman/Kelley/Hull/DJackson
WR - Chase/AJBrown/Wilson/Nucua/DJohnson/EMoore/Chark/DRobinson
TE - LaPorta/McBride/Fant
TAXI - Levis/Shaheed/Perry/Scott/Iosivas/CJones/Dulcich/Kraft/Likely/DAllen
2024 - 1.08, 2.02, 4.01
2025 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 4
2026 - 1, 2, 3, 4

Team 2 - 12-Team SF Full PPR - TE .5 Prem - QB/RB/2WR/SF/4FLEX
QB - Jackson/Goff/Murray/Ridder/Brissett
RB - KWilliams/Swift/AJones/Dowdle
WR - Chase/Waddle/Metcalf/Higgins/Mims/Jennings
TE - JJohnson/Mallory/Woods
TAXI - Hooker/RJohnson/Spears/Chandler/Iosivas
IR - Smith-Schuster
2024 - 1.05, 1.08, 2.02, 3.06, 3.07, 4.05
2025 - 1,2,2,2,3
2026 - 2,3,4

ajf235
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Re: Chris Godwin or Aaron Jones?

Postby ajf235 » Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:55 pm

ProfPoobah wrote: Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:33 pm It obviously depends on what the rest of your roster looks like, but in a vacuum... RBs are definitely more valuable than WRs, if they're consistently producing around the same level. That said, Jones worries me a bit. He's developing an injury history. 4 games missed this year, I think, and two straight years he didn't finish the season. Throw in the suspension for the beginning of 2018, the new coaching staff coming to GB, and Jamaal Williams finally playing well in Weeks 15-16, and that's a lot of red flags for me. I posted elsewhere about Godwin just a few minutes ago. I concede that TB may also be undergoing a coaching staff overhaul. That said, he and Winston connected very well today, albeit against a banged-up defense with little to play for. However, I had worried that Godwin produced much better with Fitzmagic than Jameis. If Desean Jackson is gone, and Adam Humphries potentially follows, Evans and Godwin are a 1-2 punch any coach should want to develop.

So, ajf, if this is the league you're usually posting about, it might depend on Godwin's cost. If not, I'd want to know what the rest of your roster looks like...
Yeah I got Chubb ($8), Guice ($7) and Golladay ($3) as my locks next year in a 4-keeper league on a $200 budget. Aaron Jones is $6 and Chris Godwin would be $2.

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Re: Chris Godwin or Aaron Jones?

Postby ProfPoobah » Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:44 pm

It'd be ideal if you could move two of the Golladay/Jones/Godwin trio for a bonafide stud, and keep the other as your 4th. Jones at $6 vs. Godwin for $2? I certainly wouldn't fault going the other way, but I might go Godwin for $2, today.
Team 1 - 10-Team SF Full PPR - QB/2RB/2WR/TE/SF/3FLEX
QB - Jackson/Fields/Prescott/Garoppolo/Brissett/Lance
RB - Bijan/Breece/Stevenson/Foreman/Kelley/Hull/DJackson
WR - Chase/AJBrown/Wilson/Nucua/DJohnson/EMoore/Chark/DRobinson
TE - LaPorta/McBride/Fant
TAXI - Levis/Shaheed/Perry/Scott/Iosivas/CJones/Dulcich/Kraft/Likely/DAllen
2024 - 1.08, 2.02, 4.01
2025 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 4
2026 - 1, 2, 3, 4

Team 2 - 12-Team SF Full PPR - TE .5 Prem - QB/RB/2WR/SF/4FLEX
QB - Jackson/Goff/Murray/Ridder/Brissett
RB - KWilliams/Swift/AJones/Dowdle
WR - Chase/Waddle/Metcalf/Higgins/Mims/Jennings
TE - JJohnson/Mallory/Woods
TAXI - Hooker/RJohnson/Spears/Chandler/Iosivas
IR - Smith-Schuster
2024 - 1.05, 1.08, 2.02, 3.06, 3.07, 4.05
2025 - 1,2,2,2,3
2026 - 2,3,4

ajf235
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Re: Chris Godwin or Aaron Jones?

Postby ajf235 » Mon Dec 31, 2018 6:38 am

ProfPoobah wrote: Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:44 pm It'd be ideal if you could move two of the Golladay/Jones/Godwin trio for a bonafide stud, and keep the other as your 4th. Jones at $6 vs. Godwin for $2? I certainly wouldn't fault going the other way, but I might go Godwin for $2, today.
Yeah I think I might go Godwin over Jones too. And as it pertains to trading Jones and Golladay for a stud, the thought crossed my mind but I honestly don’t know that there’s anyone I’d rather have than Golladay for his price. I can keep Golladay next year and 2020 at 10% increases and then I have to sign him to a contract whereby his base salary increases by $5 multiplied by the number of years in his contract.

The best cheap studs are Conner at $5 (non contract year), Thielen at $4 (but contract year so likely $14 for 2 additional years), Michael Thomas for $9 (end of contract year so I can’t keep him past 2019 which eliminates him as an option). I like the youth and fact that Golladay isn’t in a contract year over Thielen rn and I don’t really want Conner if it means that I won’t have a WR keeper.

The other best keepers are Kamara ($4 but contract year so proly 3-year’s at $19), Tyreek Hill ($23 with 2 years remaining on contract), Davante Adams ($25 in a contract year so likely $35 for two more years plus next year) and McCaffrey ($44 on a contract year so likely $59 for two contract years plus next year). I think McCaffrey and Adams are too expensive, and I don’t think I’d get Kamara for just Golladay and Jones. Hill I’m not sure about, that might be a reasonable trade.

The rest of the studs are priced at close to market value. Based on these prices and the fact that MT can’t be kept for more than a year, I think I honestly prefer Golladay to all of them except Kamara (who I doubt I’d get). If Golladay becomes a top 10 WR then he’s potentially the best keeper at his price.

Would you rather have any of those guys at those prices than Golladay and Jones at their combined prices?

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Re: Chris Godwin or Aaron Jones?

Postby ProfPoobah » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:34 pm

For me anyway, Thielen at $14 would be wonderful get for Golladay/Jones, giving you Chubb, Guice, Thielen and Godwin for a combined $31? Yeah, I'd do that.
Team 1 - 10-Team SF Full PPR - QB/2RB/2WR/TE/SF/3FLEX
QB - Jackson/Fields/Prescott/Garoppolo/Brissett/Lance
RB - Bijan/Breece/Stevenson/Foreman/Kelley/Hull/DJackson
WR - Chase/AJBrown/Wilson/Nucua/DJohnson/EMoore/Chark/DRobinson
TE - LaPorta/McBride/Fant
TAXI - Levis/Shaheed/Perry/Scott/Iosivas/CJones/Dulcich/Kraft/Likely/DAllen
2024 - 1.08, 2.02, 4.01
2025 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 4
2026 - 1, 2, 3, 4

Team 2 - 12-Team SF Full PPR - TE .5 Prem - QB/RB/2WR/SF/4FLEX
QB - Jackson/Goff/Murray/Ridder/Brissett
RB - KWilliams/Swift/AJones/Dowdle
WR - Chase/Waddle/Metcalf/Higgins/Mims/Jennings
TE - JJohnson/Mallory/Woods
TAXI - Hooker/RJohnson/Spears/Chandler/Iosivas
IR - Smith-Schuster
2024 - 1.05, 1.08, 2.02, 3.06, 3.07, 4.05
2025 - 1,2,2,2,3
2026 - 2,3,4

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Re: Chris Godwin or Aaron Jones?

Postby ajf235 » Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:38 pm

ProfPoobah wrote: Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:34 pm For me anyway, Thielen at $14 would be wonderful get for Golladay/Jones, giving you Chubb, Guice, Thielen and Godwin for a combined $31? Yeah, I'd do that.
I don’t have Chris Godwin. I’m contemplating trading Aaron Jones for Godwin. So if I made that trade for Thielen, my keepers would likely be Chubb Guice Thielen and Goff for $31 combined. I think Goff is a big downgrade from Aaron Jones in the last keeper slot and like Golladay as the long term play over Thielen tbh given I have another year before I have to contract him.

Also, I’m most likely gonna draft both AB and Julio next year with my ridiculous draft capital so I’ll be set at WR even with just Golladay.

My other potential keepers are Hunter Henry ($11), Corey Davis ($17), Goff ($2), Njoku ($6), Sutton ($11), Robby Anderson ($11) and Rashaad Penny ($18- only a keeper at that price if Carson is traded or gets injured) and tbh am not crazy about any of them at those prices.

What are your thoughts now that you know I don’t have Chris Godwin already?

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Re: Chris Godwin or Aaron Jones?

Postby ProfPoobah » Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:11 pm

Okay, so you don't trade three of Golladay/Jones/Godwin. :)

I guess I was thinking if you had Thielen, you only had to buy one high-end WR. If you're comfortable, and ready to buy AB and Julio, I keep Jones over Godwin to protect the weaker position. If you only plan to buy one top-shelf WR, then I definitely get Godwin.
Team 1 - 10-Team SF Full PPR - QB/2RB/2WR/TE/SF/3FLEX
QB - Jackson/Fields/Prescott/Garoppolo/Brissett/Lance
RB - Bijan/Breece/Stevenson/Foreman/Kelley/Hull/DJackson
WR - Chase/AJBrown/Wilson/Nucua/DJohnson/EMoore/Chark/DRobinson
TE - LaPorta/McBride/Fant
TAXI - Levis/Shaheed/Perry/Scott/Iosivas/CJones/Dulcich/Kraft/Likely/DAllen
2024 - 1.08, 2.02, 4.01
2025 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 4
2026 - 1, 2, 3, 4

Team 2 - 12-Team SF Full PPR - TE .5 Prem - QB/RB/2WR/SF/4FLEX
QB - Jackson/Goff/Murray/Ridder/Brissett
RB - KWilliams/Swift/AJones/Dowdle
WR - Chase/Waddle/Metcalf/Higgins/Mims/Jennings
TE - JJohnson/Mallory/Woods
TAXI - Hooker/RJohnson/Spears/Chandler/Iosivas
IR - Smith-Schuster
2024 - 1.05, 1.08, 2.02, 3.06, 3.07, 4.05
2025 - 1,2,2,2,3
2026 - 2,3,4

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Re: Chris Godwin or Aaron Jones?

Postby ajf235 » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:52 pm

ProfPoobah wrote: Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:11 pm Okay, so you don't trade three of Golladay/Jones/Godwin. :)

I guess I was thinking if you had Thielen, you only had to buy one high-end WR. If you're comfortable, and ready to buy AB and Julio, I keep Jones over Godwin to protect the weaker position. If you only plan to buy one top-shelf WR, then I definitely get Godwin.
Yeah I feel like Godwin and Golladay are both great pieces with big upside but I wouldn’t want to go into the season thinking I had to start them every week. As long as I’m sure to handcuff Jones to Williams and Guice is healthy and the clear guy to start 2019, I’m comfortable with my three main RBs to the extent that I wouldn’t have to invest heavily in my team this offseason.

The other possibility is trying to get Thielen for Golladay and Jones and then drafting Saquon and Julio so my starting lineup would be Julio/Thielen/Saquon/Chubb/Guice but then I’d have no depth. Also, I’d be kicking myself for years if Golladay turns into a top 8 WR and I gave him up after having him at $3.


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