10 Keepers for Auction League

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ProfPoobah
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10 Keepers for Auction League

Postby ProfPoobah » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:16 am

I'm in a 12-team .5 PPR auction league with a $200 cap. Roster is 20 players (start QB/2RB/3WR/TE/K/D), we protect 10 in mid-February (lose everyone else), and keep 0-10 of those in August. We can trade after the fantasy playoffs end after Week 16. Player values go up $5/year, $$ shown below are 2019 #s -

QB - Luck ($13), Winston ($7)
RB - Cook ($27), Michel ($15), Chubb ($11), Ajayi ($8), Guice ($7), R. Jones ($6), McGuire ($6)
WR - Hilton ($44), Diggs ($21), Jeffery ($16), Fuller ($15), Godwin ($9), Sutton ($8), Pettis ($6)
TE - Kittle ($10), Henry ($6)
K/D - who cares?

I feel like Michel, Chubb, Guice, Diggs, and Kittle are locks right now - 5 players - $64. Who are the next best 5? Thanks!
Team 1 - 10-Team SF Full PPR - QB/2RB/2WR/TE/SF/3FLEX
QB - Jackson/Fields/Prescott/Garoppolo/Brissett/Lance
RB - Bijan/Breece/Stevenson/Foreman/Kelley/Hull/DJackson
WR - Chase/AJBrown/Wilson/Nucua/DJohnson/EMoore/Chark/DRobinson
TE - LaPorta/McBride/Fant
TAXI - Levis/Shaheed/Perry/Scott/Iosivas/CJones/Dulcich/Kraft/Likely/DAllen
2024 - 1.08, 2.02, 4.01
2025 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 4
2026 - 1, 2, 3, 4

Team 2 - 12-Team SF Full PPR - TE .5 Prem - QB/RB/2WR/SF/4FLEX
QB - Jackson/Goff/Murray/Ridder/Brissett
RB - KWilliams/Swift/AJones/Dowdle
WR - Chase/Waddle/Metcalf/Higgins/Mims/Jennings
TE - JJohnson/Mallory/Woods
TAXI - Hooker/RJohnson/Spears/Chandler/Iosivas
IR - Smith-Schuster
2024 - 1.05, 1.08, 2.02, 3.06, 3.07, 4.05
2025 - 1,2,2,2,3
2026 - 2,3,4

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moishetreats
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Re: 10 Keepers for Auction League

Postby moishetreats » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:44 am

A couple of questions.

1) Players like Cook, Michel, Luck, Diggs, Henry -- how are they priced compared to other comparable players at their positions?

2) I imagine that the free agent pool in-season is pretty deep. Is that correct? If so, then I would also imagine that you could easily find fill-in players in-season for a game a few games. Is that also correct?

Let me know. Then I'll gladly follow-up with more pointed thoughts!
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

ProfPoobah
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Re: 10 Keepers for Auction League

Postby ProfPoobah » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Fair enough. I tend to run long (and scare off people afraid to read) so I aimed for a shorter post. That said, buckle up... :)

1) QBs: Luck is #6 in points, and only 3 points behind Brees in 4th on the year. For QB1s, Luck is reasonably priced --- Big Ben - $8/Mahomes - $11/Watson - $11/Ryan - $11/Goff - $13/Cousins - $15/Rivers - $16/Newton - $20/Wilson - $24/Brees - $27/Rodgers - $31

RBs: The three I mentioned as "locks" are all what I would consider good value. Cook's price has me on the fence with him. If the top 24 backs are kept, though, he doesn't look too bad --- Zeke - $65/Barkley - $57/McCaffrey - $47/Gurley - $44/Fournette - $41/Mixon - $37/Gordon - $32/Ingram - $28/Miller - $26/K. Johnson - $24/D. Johnson - $23/Drake - $23/Freeman - $21/Mack - $19/Coleman - $18/Howard - $17/Kamara - $15/Jones - $14/Lindsay - $14/Cohen - $11/White - $11/Conner - $9

WRs: Values are all over the place here, though Diggs as a borderline WR1/WR2 seems priced well --- Jones - $55/Brown - $41/Hopkins - $38/Cooper - $36/D. Thomas - $36/Tate - $33/Evans - $32/Allen - $31/Beckham - $29/Adams - $27/Landry - $26/Sanders - $25/M. Thomas - $25/Cooks - $23/Baldwin - $21/Hill - $20/Thielen - $20/Watkins - $20/Davis - $18/Kupp - $16/Robinson - $16/Ridley - $13/Moore - $12/Edelman - $11/Gordon - $11/JuJu - $11/Golladay - $10/Kirk - $8/Lockett - $7/Boyd - $6/Anderson - $6

TEs: Except for the surprises this year, you have to pay for top-end at this position --- Gronk - $37/Kelce - $26/Ertz - $19/Burton - $14/Howard - $9/Njoku - $8/Cook - $7/Ebron - $6

2) With 240 players already rostered, free agency tends to be fairly competitive. That said, I often was picking up 1-2 new skill players a week as the landscape shifted. They usually served on my team (and most teams) as flex-level players and bye week/bench support, or prospective keepers. From my list, Winston, Ajayi, Jones, McGuire, Pettis, Kittle, and Henry came from free agency.

Does this give you what you needed, moishetreats?
Team 1 - 10-Team SF Full PPR - QB/2RB/2WR/TE/SF/3FLEX
QB - Jackson/Fields/Prescott/Garoppolo/Brissett/Lance
RB - Bijan/Breece/Stevenson/Foreman/Kelley/Hull/DJackson
WR - Chase/AJBrown/Wilson/Nucua/DJohnson/EMoore/Chark/DRobinson
TE - LaPorta/McBride/Fant
TAXI - Levis/Shaheed/Perry/Scott/Iosivas/CJones/Dulcich/Kraft/Likely/DAllen
2024 - 1.08, 2.02, 4.01
2025 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 4
2026 - 1, 2, 3, 4

Team 2 - 12-Team SF Full PPR - TE .5 Prem - QB/RB/2WR/SF/4FLEX
QB - Jackson/Goff/Murray/Ridder/Brissett
RB - KWilliams/Swift/AJones/Dowdle
WR - Chase/Waddle/Metcalf/Higgins/Mims/Jennings
TE - JJohnson/Mallory/Woods
TAXI - Hooker/RJohnson/Spears/Chandler/Iosivas
IR - Smith-Schuster
2024 - 1.05, 1.08, 2.02, 3.06, 3.07, 4.05
2025 - 1,2,2,2,3
2026 - 2,3,4

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Re: 10 Keepers for Auction League

Postby ajf235 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:12 pm

I’d keep Luck, Cook, Michel, Chubb, Guice, Diggs, Hilton, Kittle, Godwin and Pettis.

Luck is a top 2 QB and a discount at $13. Diggs is a high end WR2 and a steal at $21. Kittle is another no brainer at $10.

I know it’s a lot to keep 4 RBs but between Michel, Chubb, Cook and Guice you have a very solid chance of having at least three top 12 RBs next year for a combined price of $60, plus they’re all at significant discounts to what they’d be drafted for and you’ll be shielded against injuries. So I think keeping those four RBs is a no brainer.

The final three are the least clear cut. Hilton is no discount at $44. That’s probably close to or a little bit more than his market value in 2019. Nonetheless, Hilton is a low end WR1 that’s reasonably priced. Between Hilton and Diggs, you’ll have two high end WR2s/Low end WR1s to pair with your arsenal of stud/high upside RBs, Luck and Kittle and I’m feel very comfortable going into 2019 with those two as my primary WRs.

The final two slots are debateable. I could see Alshon being kept for $16 too, but I think Fuller is too injury prone to keep at his price. I think Godwin at $9 and Pettis at $6 are the best bets. When Desean likely leaves this offseason, a ton of targets will open up for Godwin and we could see a Golladay-like breakout from him in year 3. Pettis has put up some excellent numbers since moving into the starting lineup and figures to be the highest upside (non-rookie) receiver in a Mike Shanahan/Jimmy G led offense next year and I think he could def return boom-bust WR2 value next year (look at the hype train for Marqise Goodwin leading into this season).

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Re: 10 Keepers for Auction League

Postby moishetreats » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:40 am

ProfPoobah wrote: Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:19 pmDoes this give you what you needed, moishetreats?
Awesome. Thank you!!!

Let's start at the back end. Godwin, Pettis, Sutton, McGuire: They all look promising, and, in many formats, I'd look to keep them all. But, it seems like (a) they're not incredible market values and, unless they take off, they won't be values in 2020, and (b) you are likely to find similar players at some point playing the waiver wire in-season for potentially a lot cheaper. Are those both correct? If so, then you let them all go. Adding up all the money for those guys enables you get to get another top-end player, and there are enough replacement-level players for $1 that you can find.

Fuller, Jeffrey, and Hilton are all unlikely to surpass their current value, and they're priced at about their cost in free agency. I would much rather end up paying $1 or $2 more if I want to re-acquire them then hang on to them and realize that their value is, say, $5 above the market. They all go.

Ajayi and R. Jones are easy releases.

Winston is an interesting case. He has proven that he can put up bona fide elite numbers, and he has proven entirely unreliable. I like gambling on upside like his, so I'd keep him. I'd also bet that I'm in the minority, and that he's more likely they kind of player that should be listed in the first paragraph along with Godwin, Pettis, and Sutton.

Diggs is also an intriguing case. Can put up elite numbers but is remarkably inconsistent for a potential top-end WR. That being said, he presents pretty good value, so I'd likely hang on to him.

Kittle and Henry are both great. I usually don't like keeping two TEs in this format, but they both do present good value. That being said, I'd give strong consideration to dropping Henry. Do you think that he would go for a lot more than $6 in the auction? If not, then drop him. If yes, then keep him.

That leaves Luck, Cook, Michel, Chubb, Guice, Diggs, and Kittle as your seven obvious keepers in my book. For the last three, you're really looking at the guys that likely generate the most value either by contract or through trade. So, go back to the first paragraph and keep two of those WRs (not McGuire) or keep one of those WRs and Winston and/or Henry. (In my book, Winston is a keeper. But, I'd also gamble that I could get him for a similar price in the auction and would release him. I'd likely play the same game with Henry.) The wild card is Fuller: I'm not a believer, but maybe someone is. But, I hate to keep a player with the sole intent of trading.

So, in the end, I'm keeping the seven guys listed and the trio of Godwin, Pettis, and Sutton for my final spots, rounding out your 10 (allowing for the potential value of Winston and/or Henry to let them be kept; you'll know your league better).

Thoughts?
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

ProfPoobah
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Re: 10 Keepers for Auction League

Postby ProfPoobah » Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:11 pm

Thanks to both of you, ajf235 and moishetreats, for your takes on this situation! Would welcome anyone else that wants to jump in.

It's interesting that you both tabbed Luck as a no-brainer. Maybe it's an extension of the snake draft theory of always being able to get good QBs late, that I'm hesitant to invest in the position. That said, what luck brings may be a couple of dollars above what I could cobble together, but I also can save a roster spot by waiting until near his bye week to find a filler, so that's an interesting thought to add to the mix.

ajf, I can't see me keeping both Cook and Hilton. I understand it seems too definitive, even if I believe they represent fair value, but with the players I considered locks, and Luck, added to the mix, that's $148 for just 8 players. And then if I add players in the Sutton, Henry, Pettis, etc. range, it's about $160. No space to do more than add one mid-range player with upside (Emmanuel Sanders, for example, was $20 this year) and bench filler/cheap speculative adds. I do think Cook has shown a nice recovery late this season, and his development under a new OC is very exciting. Having 4 arguably top-24 backs for the price of Ezekiel Elliott appeals, to be sure, and gives me room to invest.

moishetreats, I actually drafted Winston, released him and got in on Fitzpatrick at a decent price, included him in a trade package that netted me Jeffrey just as he was coming back, and then picked Winston back up. I do believe in the current version of the Tampa passing game (it's also why I drafted Godwin). But, I can't see me keeping two QBs with this pool of players to choose from. I may be able to acquire him again for around that price if I'm still a believe next August. If he's still a Buc...

Other thoughts -- Speaking of Bucs, and including that whole tier that started with Godwin, like with any auction draft, next year's value depends. I had a chance to keep Marquise Goodwin last year at $6, threw him back, and he went late in the draft for $20. Players who sporadically produce in the WR3-WR5 range can be had for single-digits, yes, easily, especially if your timing is good. But they are also all 1st-2nd year players, and if we perceive some kind of ascension (does Godwin benefit from a coaching/QB change/possible loss of DJax and Humphries? Is Pettis the new #1/what the heck happens if Jimmy G is the starter again in 2019? Is Sutton going to mature into the #1 in Denver? What is NYJ going to do at RB in the offseason?) then they are values now. If these guys are pumped up by fantasy "experts" in July and August, their values soar. If not, they are re-acquirable at these prices. McGuire is the easiest cut from that group, for me, if only because the Jets could be heavy players in the Leveon Bell sweepstakes this offseason.

If I add Luck and Cook to the Michel/Chubb/Guice/Diggs/Kittle core, that's 7 players at $104. I'm not averse to keeping players now, potentially for trading purposes, and cutting them before the draft if I don't like how their value has moved. I am also the major force in the league behind the trading window after the fantasy playoffs but before we declare. Got it passed a couple of years ago, and really hope to be moving players before the deadline. Feel free to offer opinions about that. Here's my potential "wish list":

"Wish List"
Mahomes - $11
Kamara - $15
Conner - $9
White - $11
Lindsey - $14
Cohen - $11
Jones - $14
Breida - $8
McKinnon - $6
Hill - $20
Thielen - $20
Juju S-S - $11
Kupp - $16
Woods - $11
Boyd - $6
Lockett - $7
Golladay - $10
Ridley - $13
Mike Williams - $11
Ebron - $6
Cook - $7
Team 1 - 10-Team SF Full PPR - QB/2RB/2WR/TE/SF/3FLEX
QB - Jackson/Fields/Prescott/Garoppolo/Brissett/Lance
RB - Bijan/Breece/Stevenson/Foreman/Kelley/Hull/DJackson
WR - Chase/AJBrown/Wilson/Nucua/DJohnson/EMoore/Chark/DRobinson
TE - LaPorta/McBride/Fant
TAXI - Levis/Shaheed/Perry/Scott/Iosivas/CJones/Dulcich/Kraft/Likely/DAllen
2024 - 1.08, 2.02, 4.01
2025 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 4
2026 - 1, 2, 3, 4

Team 2 - 12-Team SF Full PPR - TE .5 Prem - QB/RB/2WR/SF/4FLEX
QB - Jackson/Goff/Murray/Ridder/Brissett
RB - KWilliams/Swift/AJones/Dowdle
WR - Chase/Waddle/Metcalf/Higgins/Mims/Jennings
TE - JJohnson/Mallory/Woods
TAXI - Hooker/RJohnson/Spears/Chandler/Iosivas
IR - Smith-Schuster
2024 - 1.05, 1.08, 2.02, 3.06, 3.07, 4.05
2025 - 1,2,2,2,3
2026 - 2,3,4

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Re: 10 Keepers for Auction League

Postby ajf235 » Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:28 pm

I like Cook at $27 as a no brainer keeper. Hilton is who I’m on the fence with. Cook looks to be fully recovered and has top 5 upside. He’s going for $45+ in drafts next year if I had to guess.

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Re: 10 Keepers for Auction League

Postby ProfPoobah » Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:23 pm

So, I know that Week 17s have brought up some huge weeks that have proved difficult to repeat the next year, but did Chris Godwin lock up a spot as my #8 keeper lock? The one thing that scared me was the belief that he had a better rapport with Fitzmagic than he did with Jameis Winston. Today he got as many looks as Mike Evans, and produced a nearly identical stat line. I'm not expecting 110 yards and 2 TDs every week (because if I did, Winston would become a keeper lock as well, right?), but that connection looks good. If Jameis stays in TB, I could easily be persuaded to keep Godwin. Thoughts?
Team 1 - 10-Team SF Full PPR - QB/2RB/2WR/TE/SF/3FLEX
QB - Jackson/Fields/Prescott/Garoppolo/Brissett/Lance
RB - Bijan/Breece/Stevenson/Foreman/Kelley/Hull/DJackson
WR - Chase/AJBrown/Wilson/Nucua/DJohnson/EMoore/Chark/DRobinson
TE - LaPorta/McBride/Fant
TAXI - Levis/Shaheed/Perry/Scott/Iosivas/CJones/Dulcich/Kraft/Likely/DAllen
2024 - 1.08, 2.02, 4.01
2025 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 4
2026 - 1, 2, 3, 4

Team 2 - 12-Team SF Full PPR - TE .5 Prem - QB/RB/2WR/SF/4FLEX
QB - Jackson/Goff/Murray/Ridder/Brissett
RB - KWilliams/Swift/AJones/Dowdle
WR - Chase/Waddle/Metcalf/Higgins/Mims/Jennings
TE - JJohnson/Mallory/Woods
TAXI - Hooker/RJohnson/Spears/Chandler/Iosivas
IR - Smith-Schuster
2024 - 1.05, 1.08, 2.02, 3.06, 3.07, 4.05
2025 - 1,2,2,2,3
2026 - 2,3,4

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Re: 10 Keepers for Auction League

Postby ProfPoobah » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:40 pm

So I'm having absolutely no luck in working a deal for an affordable WR. However, I did deal TY Hilton and Dante Pettis (one who cost more than I was willing to keep him for, the other was an interesting potential cheap gamble) for Devonta Freeman at $21. I also am liking what I hear out of TB, and am likely to move Chris Godwin into the locks group. And with this many RB, I don't see me gambling on another speculative pick there. So, the revised set-up looks like this:

Locks (can trade them, won't cut them):
QB - Luck ($13)
RB - Cook ($27), Freeman ($21), Michel ($15), Chubb ($11), Guice ($7)
WR - Diggs ($21), Godwin ($9)
TE - Kittle ($10)

9 players - $134

Last player options - Jeffery ($16), Fuller ($15), Sutton ($8), Hunter Henry ($6). Currently leaning Sutton or Henry for cash reasons if nothing else. I offered Freeman and Jeffery for Juju ($11) and got turned down cold. Do I add Fuller, Sutton, or Henry to the offer?
Team 1 - 10-Team SF Full PPR - QB/2RB/2WR/TE/SF/3FLEX
QB - Jackson/Fields/Prescott/Garoppolo/Brissett/Lance
RB - Bijan/Breece/Stevenson/Foreman/Kelley/Hull/DJackson
WR - Chase/AJBrown/Wilson/Nucua/DJohnson/EMoore/Chark/DRobinson
TE - LaPorta/McBride/Fant
TAXI - Levis/Shaheed/Perry/Scott/Iosivas/CJones/Dulcich/Kraft/Likely/DAllen
2024 - 1.08, 2.02, 4.01
2025 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 4
2026 - 1, 2, 3, 4

Team 2 - 12-Team SF Full PPR - TE .5 Prem - QB/RB/2WR/SF/4FLEX
QB - Jackson/Goff/Murray/Ridder/Brissett
RB - KWilliams/Swift/AJones/Dowdle
WR - Chase/Waddle/Metcalf/Higgins/Mims/Jennings
TE - JJohnson/Mallory/Woods
TAXI - Hooker/RJohnson/Spears/Chandler/Iosivas
IR - Smith-Schuster
2024 - 1.05, 1.08, 2.02, 3.06, 3.07, 4.05
2025 - 1,2,2,2,3
2026 - 2,3,4


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