Are TE's worth the high pick?

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apbohannon
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Are TE's worth the high pick?

Postby apbohannon » Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:02 am

This is a pretty loaded class at TE talent, but I'm still having an internal struggle drafting one of these guys with high draft capital. In a salary cap league format (RSO specifically) where you don't retain the rights to the player like a typical dynasty format, is it worth paying a premium for a rookie TE when you will be losing control just as they are beginning to show return on the premium paid?

I understand this is largely in flux depending on the specific rules of the league and contract extensions/rookie contract years, but let's just say that you can only have the TE signed for 4-5 years max on his rookie deal and possible extensions; is it worth using a 1st rd. pick and paying the 1st rd. salary to a guy that, more than likely, won't produce for the first 2-3 years?

This is just something I've been toiling with given the projected talent this class has and where those top guys are being drafted.
Team 1:
12 Teams, PPR
QB - J. Garoppolo, J. Goff, P. Mahomes
RB - Tevin Coleman, Rashaad Penny, CJ Prosise, Mike Gillislee, Derrius Guice, Tarik Cohen, Joe Mixon
WR - C. Davis , J.Doctson, Ty. Williams, T. Lockett, M. Mitchell, M. Gallup
TE - A. Hooper, OJ Howard, D. Njoku

Team 2:
12 Teams, PPR, SF
QB - A. Rodgers, A. Luck, M. Mariota, K. Lauletta
RB - K. Hunt, A. Kamara, K. Dixon, J. Adams, M. Breida, CJ Prosise, B. Scarbrough
WR - M. Evans, D. Hopkins, A. Robinson, C. Godwin, K. Golladay, M. Valdes-Scantling, J. Ross, A. Darboh, A. Lazard, I. Zamora, L. Carroo
TE - E. Engram, OJ Howard
DT - S. Day, D. Hand, D. Irving, M. Jackson, S. Williams
DE - V. Curry, K. Ealy, J. Jenkins, R. Quinn, J. Sheard, D. Walker
LB - D. Bucannon, P. Smith, D. Trevathan, S. Griffin, R. Ragland, J. Bynes, B. Hager, K. Ishmael, M. Jefferson, M. Judon, B. Marshall, C. Matthews, W. Mercilus, P. Onwuasor
DB - A. Amos, T. Apke, A. Bethea, P. Chung, D. Everett, T. Gipson, M. Hyde, G. Quin, D. Hill

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moishetreats
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Re: Are TE's worth the high pick?

Postby moishetreats » Sat Apr 22, 2017 6:14 pm

I think that you're framing the question incorrectly.

Ask it this way: will this TE outplay his contract in years 3+ by enough to justify being overpaid in years 1 and 2?

That creates a better answer for a salary cap format.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

Bay City Original
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Re: Are TE's worth the high pick?

Postby Bay City Original » Sat Apr 22, 2017 6:39 pm

I agree with what Moishetreats said... with the time it takes to develop a TE (and to find out if they will pan out), I wouldn't go too crazy to draft a TE. I def wouldn't trade to move up for one but if one drops down to me and I feel it's a "value" to pick him, I'd go that route. If you hit, cool. I'd rather invest in a TE that's a couple year's developed that I think might break through.
Team 1 -12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QRRWWWTF 2022 Champ
QB: Allen, Purdy, Love
RB: Mixon, AJones, Swift, Dillon, Dobbins
WR: Jefferson, AJB, DJM, NCollins, Sutton, NCollins, Mingo
TE: Hockenson
1.10

Team 2 -12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QRRWWWTF - 2023 Champ
QB: Murray, Love
RB: Hall, Gibbs, Walker, Dobbins, KMitchell, EMitchell
WR: DSmith, Addison, Kupp DJM, Dionte, Chark
TE: Engram, Mayer, Waller
1.02, 1.09, 2.09, 2.12

Team 3-12 Team, SF, 0.5 PPR, QRRWWWTFS - 2023 Champ
QB: Purdy, Dak Stafford
RB: Taylor, Henry, Conner Najee, Warren, EMitchell
WR: Samuel, DJM, Cooper Sutton, Bateman, Pierce
TE: Kittle
1.02, 1.12, 2.02, 2.12

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bruiser
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Re: Are TE's worth the high pick?

Postby bruiser » Sat Apr 22, 2017 7:43 pm

I play in 16-tm, start 2TE leagues. They are a premium, and Henry Hunter is evidence enough that the age-old developmental barriers are able to be broken. Gronk had 10TDs as a rook (I think). There will be one or two of this year's crop that proves to be startable in my format. You have to know how it applies to your format.
Just a guy who loves fantasy football - specifically defense.


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