Donte Moncrief - RFA

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Jason3123
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Donte Moncrief - RFA

Postby Jason3123 » Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:25 pm

Hi everyone,

So I own Donte Moncrief in a salary cap league, and his rookie contract has ended. I can re-sign him from 1-5 years. I'm debating between a 4-5 year deal. I am actually very concerned about him, and starting to get skeptical of him. He has a Michael Floyd vibe to me.

The reason I am considering the lengthy deal is because he is dirt cheap in this league, and as of right now he isn't getting a big salary increase. So what's your opinions? Should I give him the long deal so he maintains trade value, or if he really comes together next season then I have an excellent player. Or should I go shorter deal, and if he hits I have production for a few years with no trade value, and if he continues to disappoint well then I sit on him for a bit and whatever happens, happens, and I can get out without too much penalty?

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moishetreats
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Re: Donte Moncrief - RFA

Postby moishetreats » Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:38 pm

Without the specifics of his cost and league cap, I'd definitely extend him for cheap -- and for the max of 5 years. He seems to have a decent enough floor with the TDs, and that alone might justify a low price tag. And he still retains meaningful upside.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

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Re: Donte Moncrief - RFA

Postby dlf_tomk » Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:51 am

I'm not totally convinced. But then again I favour shorter contracts anyway. We're just not good at predicting long-term FF prospects. As an example when looking at ADP in year 1 there's a clear relationship between ADP and points. R-squared is 0.47. In year 2 that drops to 0.17. We can't even reliably pick rookies a year into the future. Thinking we can predict 5 years including free agency is crazy.

Speaking of FA Moncrief is an UFA in 2018 and given the Luck contract and need to spend some cash on that awful D it's no sure thing Moncrief gets resigned. After all he's not even the #1 WR on his own team.

I'd sign him to a 3 year contract. You get a nice year in 2017 whatever. If he stays in Indy doing well you've got 2 more seasons of cheap production If he doesn't he should have enough trade value without being an imminent FA in your league for you to trade. Or if he lands in a good spot another 2 years of cheap contract.
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Jason3123
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Re: Donte Moncrief - RFA

Postby Jason3123 » Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:21 am

Thank you guys for the feedback. Seems like we are all split as well haha.

For reference, Moncrief's salary in this league is basically a minimum deal.

Example: 5 YEAR DEAL will only be $30 (essentially $6/yr). If I had to cut him at any point, the cap hit is 50% of the remaining total value, for 1 year. So if I cut him in Year 3, that would only be a $9 hit (3x6=$18).

Because of this I will probably go with a 4 year deal just because of how young he is, and even if he never truly pops I still think his price tag will always be below market value in this league.


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