Auction (non salary cap) league estimate values/strategies

[AlcoholEnthusiast]

So I'm joining an auction league (which I have never one) and looking for a bit of information. We will not have salary caps afterwards, we are just using auction for the draft.

It is a 25 roster spot league, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2 Flex league. Fairly deep starting requirements and a medium deep bench.

Wondering what some main strategies are and things to watch out for. Im aware 15-25% is usually spent on your core 'round 1' player. But outside of that information is hard to find.

I plan on tiering my target players so if one gets too high I don't get sucked in and spend too much on one guy and am able to remain flexible.

I'm guessing there are different schools of though, such as get 2-3 studs and basically spend your whole budget on that. Miss out on tier one players to get a lot of mid level players (which can in turn bite you if people didnt get a tier 1 player which then raises prices of the near elite to elite pricing.

Any other tips, advice, information, etc I can use to insure I don't dig myself into a huge hole, and maybe end up with a halfway decent team?

[bigbuck22]

80% of your budget on top five guys to build your team around.

Don't spend up on QB. It will hamstring you elsewhere.

Auctions are everflowing but you need to be able to read what's happening from other owners. Are they splurging? Are they holding their money tight? Understanding when you can possibly get a deal is important.

Equally important is understanding your nominations and how it will help your overall strategy to nominate players you don't want but will rid money and vice versa.

[dlf_tomk]

I tend to go the other way.

• None of us have much idea who will be good or bust.
  Injuries will decimate good players whoever they are.
  Our ideas of "good" players are based on limited sample size and recency bias
  You can win a league with depth not an elite handful

.

Don't go after expensive elite players. Stock up with mid-range options and when your opponents Jamaal Charles/Alshon Jeffery/Amari Cooper bust you'll have enough Tevin Coleman/Shane Vereens to win games.

When your playoff opponent is starting Keshawn Martin and you've got Markus Wheaton it's a significant advantage.

Old, high floor players FTW.

[CurtisMyFavMartin]

I tend to go the other way.

• None of us have much idea who will be good or bust.
  Injuries will decimate good players whoever they are.
  Our ideas of "good" players are based on limited sample size and recency bias
  You can win a league with depth not an elite handful

.

Don't go after expensive elite players. Stock up with mid-range options and when your opponents Jamaal Charles/Alshon Jeffery/Amari Cooper bust you'll have enough Tevin Coleman/Shane Vereens to win games.

When your playoff opponent is starting Keshawn Martin and you've got Markus Wheaton it's a significant advantage.

Old, high floor players FTW.

I couldn't disagree more. We do have a solid idea on who will be good, and if you get a solid young stud you'll be set for the next 5+ years. Ask Tom Brady or AP owners how they like those choices, and AP was known coming out of OU. As for strategy, I agree to wait on a QB. WR are the currency of a dynasty team, so "tier" some wideouts and get ready to pay when you see a deal.
Best advice I can give, is to rank how much EACH player is worth. This is time consuming, but worth it. You have 25 spots, figure a budget of $200 (x 12 teams)= $2400 total. That's 300 roster spots total. So rank the top 300 players and specifically come up with a price you would pay for each guy. That way, you'll see a deal when it comes your way.
Good luck.

[bigbuck22]

I tend to go the other way.

• None of us have much idea who will be good or bust.
  Injuries will decimate good players whoever they are.
  Our ideas of "good" players are based on limited sample size and recency bias
  You can win a league with depth not an elite handful

.

Don't go after expensive elite players. Stock up with mid-range options and when your opponents Jamaal Charles/Alshon Jeffery/Amari Cooper bust you'll have enough Tevin Coleman/Shane Vereens to win games.

When your playoff opponent is starting Keshawn Martin and you've got Markus Wheaton it's a significant advantage.

Old, high floor players FTW.

I couldn't disagree more. We do have a solid idea on who will be good, and if you get a solid young stud you'll be set for the next 5+ years. Ask Tom Brady or AP owners how they like those choices, and AP was known coming out of OU. As for strategy, I agree to wait on a QB. WR are the currency of a dynasty team, so "tier" some wideouts and get ready to pay when you see a deal.
Best advice I can give, is to rank how much EACH player is worth. This is time consuming, but worth it. You have 25 spots, figure a budget of $200 (x 12 teams)= $2400 total. That's 300 roster spots total. So rank the top 300 players and specifically come up with a price you would pay for each guy. That way, you'll see a deal when it comes your way.
Good luck.

Absolutely agree with making your cheatsheet this way. It takes some of the stress out of the situation. Make it up. Adjust it. Adjust it again until you're satisfied. Follow it.

Make sure that $2400 is spread across 300 players (25x12).

[dlf_tomk]

We do have a solid idea on who will be good, and if you get a solid young stud you'll be set for the next 5+ years. Ask Tom Brady or AP owners how they like those choices, and AP was known coming out of OU.

For every Tom Brady there's a 2nd year RGIII. For every Adrian Peterson there's a Trent Richardson.

Justin Blackmon. Blaine Gabbert. CJ Spiller. Shady McCoy. Randall Cobb. Cordarelle Patterson. Montee Ball. Steve Slaton. Zac Stacy. Josh Gordon. Chris Johnson, Ray Rice. Shonn Greene. Bishop Sankey. Eric Ebron. Austin SF. Torrey Smith. Charles Johnson. Pierre Garcon. Kevin White. All huge fantasy busts at one point or another when people no doubt bid large amounts on them.

There are very, very few players that have been reliable top-tier performers for 5 years straight in fantasy. We all think we have a great idea of what's going to happen but there's an inherent instability in this game that means we've all made big mistakes before. My strategy is simply to hope that by having lots of mid-range gambles my own mistakes wont hurt as much. The downside of that is that without as much chance of elite performers it's much easier to finish in the playoffs every year but never to win a championship. You pays your money and takes your choices. Ultimately it comes down to getting value. And the chances to have a player outperform what you pay him are exponentially higher the less you pay him.

I'm not trying to say I'm right and you're wrong - clearly there's many ways to play this game - but just there are alternative strategies available. If we all agreed then this would be a dull game wouldn't it?

[bruiser]

Indeed it would, Tom.

Curtis, all of my auction teams are in super deep formats where you need to be deep in order to survive and (ultimately) win a championship. You do this by passing on the top-paid players and slamming the mid-section of the league. This is where players become under-valued. You'll make your living and then some by feasting on the mid-section.

I see a lot of questions that lean toward "paying what the market dictates" or "pay the going rate". If you get caught up in overpaying for talent along with the rest of the league, your chances at being above average are small. You'll be in the same situation as everyone else in the league. You want to be in a unique situation with the only real chance of being above average. I hope this makes sense....

Essentially, what TomK is saying is that this can be a game of playing the odds and taking a "higher percentage chance" or "volume approach" to winning (taking more shots than everyone else). I've asked this question of my leaguemates in polls aND I'm astounded that every single team (myself excluded) will vote option B:

Would you rather have the team with the highest:
A) floor?
or
B) ceiling?

I'd prefer to have both, but creating a super-team is pretty tough to do in a cap league. Only one choice insures you against the injury bug and missed games. You can still win a deep league with multiple impact injuries if built for the grind. This is a war of attrition.

[dlf_tomk]

On this subject I'm genuinely intrigued. How many players can people name that have been a sure fire top option at their position for 5+ years.

Adrian Peterson

Megatron
AJ Green

Drew Brees
Brady
P Manning
Big Ben [maybe]
Aaron Rodgers

Gronk

JJ Watt

Errrrm...

[bruiser]

Maybe put Lavonte David and Luke Keuchley on that list after playing out this year (their 5th). These two beat the odds, imo. Very hard to keep up that production at such a violent (and volatile) position in the NFL.

It's hard to buy these guys in startups at their price... much easier to acquire them mid-season when their owners turn out the lights on their playoff hopes cuz they don't have a well-rounded team. I traded for both last mid-season by giving up an injured Jordan Hicks and some crummy 2016 draft picks.

[bigbuck22]

Indeed it would, Tom.

Curtis, all of my auction teams are in super deep formats where you need to be deep in order to survive and (ultimately) win a championship. You do this by passing on the top-paid players and slamming the mid-section of the league. This is where players become under-valued. You'll make your living and then some by feasting on the mid-section.

I see a lot of questions that lean toward "paying what the market dictates" or "pay the going rate". If you get caught up in overpaying for talent along with the rest of the league, your chances at being above average are small. You'll be in the same situation as everyone else in the league. You want to be in a unique situation with the only real chance of being above average. I hope this makes sense....

Essentially, what TomK is saying is that this can be a game of playing the odds and taking a "higher percentage chance" or "volume approach" to winning (taking more shots than everyone else). I've asked this question of my leaguemates in polls aND I'm astounded that every single team (myself excluded) will vote option B:

Would you rather have the team with the highest:
A) floor?
or
B) ceiling?

I'd prefer to have both, but creating a super-team is pretty tough to do in a cap league. Only one choice insures you against the injury bug and missed games. You can still win a deep league with multiple impact injuries if built for the grind. This is a war of attrition.

I understand the idea of hitting the middle of the auction hard. That said, every year in my auction I find that really good players are being had for under $10 later on in the draft. That's great! It means I can add them easily. If you don't try to add a game breaker or two, you'll end up with money in the bank and a solid team, just not a team that you can rely on to win a majority of weeks.

[dlf_tomk]

I understand the idea of hitting the middle of the auction hard. That said, every year in my auction I find that really good players are being had for under $10 later on in the draft. That's great! It means I can add them easily. If you don't try to add a game breaker or two, you'll end up with money in the bank and a solid team, just not a team that you can rely on to win a majority of weeks.

Indeed - you;re totally right of course. The danger with my approach is getting a top-5 team that's not threatening to win the title. But the opportunity is plenty of those studs you mention come from outside the group of players that are getting huge bids. For example let's look at 2015 WR ADP.

1 Antonio brown
2 julio
3 OBJ
4 Demaryious thomas
5 megatron
6 AJ Green
7 randall cobb
8 TY Hilton
9 Mike Evans
10 Brandin cooks

We can assume all of them went for $$$ in auctions. Anyone bidding big on DT, Megatron, Cobb probably regretted it. Hilton and Evans owners could have been annoyed too.

And further down the sort of players that were available for less money [as you spoke about] were:

11 Nuk
14 Amari C
18 Sammy Watkins
19 Maclin
20 J Landry
21 B-Marsh
25 Allen Robinson
29 Larry Fitz
31 John Brown
33 Eric Decker
50 Michael Crabtree
56 Tyler Lockett
62 Allen Hurns

If you had a startup last year and ignored the top 10 you could well ahve had a league-winning team. Especially because the $ saved from not buying Megatron would have been invested elsewhere too.

Yeah - you'd need a bit of luck to hit on deep targets but the point is you always need luck! Top priced options are not that much more likely to provide those title-winning seasons. It's an inefficient market. So the best solution is to hedge your bets [literally hedge them - you're betting against the favourites] and stock up on high-potential low-cost players.

[bruiser]

Damn, this is so true. Preach, Tom! Preach!

In a startup last year i bought Maclin, Tate, and Fitzgerald for the sum total of what other owners were paying for one of JJ Watt, Antonio Brown or OdieB. What Tom is saying will make you the best team in the league, even if some injuries catch up to you.

You need a spreadsheet price list with interactive salary cap management. You need to have real tracking of your auction to always know where you are in relation to the market. As stated above, you don't want to be holding cash when the dust settles. That should go without saying, but it's happened to me when I was underprepared for my first auction.