Dynasty League Football Forum

Is there any reasonable scenario or team he's drafted by where you don't take Sammy Watkins with the 1.01 pick in a standard scoring league? Or is he going to be an elite talent sooner than later and absolutely worth it no matter what?

If Sammy goes to a place like the Jets or the Rams who have consistently been unable to produce fantasy relevant wrs, it would be hard for me to take him 1st overall. It would depend on who else goes where, but if Sammy goes to a bad spot, I would probably trade down if I could.

I don't think he's the 1.01 under ANY circumstances. I agree with the above poster that it'd be hard to take him there if he went to the Jets or Rams. I could envision other circumstances as well like falling in the draft and/or having a bad combine and other guys having good combines. Eddie Lacy was the no brainer 1.01 right around this point last year. He still went 1.01 in some leagues but not most.

Right, and people didn't take him because of those reasons. Then we saw what happened this year. I'm curious if people end up overemphasizing combine and landing spot over player skill, which both he, and Lacy, certainly showed in college

Let me ask you this, would you take him of he went to the Raiders? That's a career killer there. I love this guy but def depends on where he goes. I personally wouldn't mind if he went to the Rams but would be weary with the Jets

vtguy88 wrote:Right, and people didn't take him because of those reasons. Then we saw what happened this year. I'm curious if people end up overemphasizing combine and landing spot over player skill, which both he, and Lacy, certainly showed in college

That is very true and Keenan Allen is another example where combine/draft made him fall more than he should have given his actual talent level.

I'm not saying it's right but I'm saying it can affect perceived value. For instance last year with Lacy, if you thought he should be the 1.01 but you know his perceived value fell leading up to the draft and you could trade back to the 1.04 or 1.05, still get him, and pick up another asset for your team that is very useful. I'm all for drafting based on your own rankings but if you can exploit differences in perceived value vs. your value of a player that is huge.

allen is a great test case - he was early the 1:1 many places ... had the suspicious test timed his 40 with a sun dial fell in the draft and in many leagues fell to 1:9 or 1:10 . He was buried on the depth chart behind floyd , DX and everybody's darling vincente brown...
now I am seeing him as high for some people as wr9 or wr10
talent shone thru and his slow forty , knee issues and weed scare are distant memories , long path to say I would not let watkins drop very far regardless of combine numbers or anything short of partying with darren sharper .
The best pick I have is 1:3 so I stand little chance of getting him but were he there I would grab him up regardless of nearly any scenario.

In standard scoring i believe he will be the unanimous 1.1...he just has the skillset that many are arguing against for whatever reason.

I dont know if everyone on here lately is just saying Watkins is not that good because they want to go against the grain or what....either way, the skill is there and you cant ignore it.

I like Evans and Lee over Watkins. Watkins only catches screen passes. I don't like his skill set for the NFL.

Sliup wrote:I like Evans and Lee over Watkins. Watkins only catches screen passes. I don't like his skill set for the NFL.

Lee dropped more deep passes than he caught and Evans runs an insanely limited route tree.

If I had 1.01 I'd take him there no matter where he ends up assuming a typical scoring league...

Sammy Watkins will be the 1.01 in nearly every dynasty league rookie draft there is. Evan's and Lee are talented but they are not the total package that Watkins is. If Watkins was in last years draft - he'd have been the 1.01. If Watkins was in the rookie draft the year before with Luck, RGIII, D.Martin, D.Wilson, Blackmon - he'd have been a top 3 pick at worst and maybe even 1.01 there as well.

Whomever is saying Watkins will not be the 1.01 is missing something. It seems that people that knock him for catching screens haven't been watching the NFL. The screen game and the back shoulder throw are now staples of many passing philosophies. These are things that Watkins excels with. Hello? Not too tough to see that if you watch football and pay attention. It has been a few years since we've seen a wr package like Watkins. Actually no - I think Watkins' game speed, athleticism, HR threat, and all around playmaking ability remind me a lot of some aspects of T. Austin's game combined with Hopkins game, combined with Patterson's game. lol. Watkins is a bigger version of T.Austin and he was taken at 1.01 in many leagues last year, Watkins is just 4 inches taller and 30 plus lbs heavier but has similar speed. If people pass on talent like that due to situation - they are, imo, playing the game (dynasty football) the wrong way. I wonder how many people passed on AJG when Cinci took him (remember how bad Cinci was at the time? Heck they drafted Dalton that year to be AjG's Qb. Not a good short term destination -Yuck) Did people really pass on Calvin or down grade his draft stock when Det took him? If they did - how do the feel now I wonder.

Now - I'm not saying Watkins is at the same level as AJG or Calvin right now, but what I am saying is that talent level wise / compared to his peers - Watkins IS that much better of a talent than the next guy. No way any of the Rb deserve to go 1st in this years draft class. No way (super flex / 2 qb leagues aside) that any qb goes first in most dyno leagues. And there is no single wr that has separated himself from the pack other than Watkins. He has fewer question marks than any of the players projected to go in the top 10. I think it is borderline dynasty suicide to lower Watkins draft stock because he may end up with the NYJ or Oak. You have to take him based on his talent. Or trade back. Yes, it sucks a bit but you have to trust the talent because / believe it or not - it should eventually shine through. Situations change, Qb's change, Offensive philosophies change, Head coaches change, Offensive coordinators change, O-lineman change, etc etc. Talent is talent. Watkins should be the 1.01 of this years draft class. Case closed.

vtguy88 wrote:Right, and people didn't take him because of those reasons. Then we saw what happened this year. I'm curious if people end up overemphasizing combine and landing spot over player skill, which both he, and Lacy, certainly showed in college

That's exactly right. People put far too much stock in combine and landing place. Last year, before the combine and draft, Lacy was considered the most talented RB and Allen the most pro-ready WR. Then Allen was unable to run his 40 and was drafted by a team already filled with receiving talent. Meanwhile Lacy was also drafted into an "unfavorable" location, in the form of a team that is pass happy and drafted Franklin too (who most considered the 2nd best RB).

By the end of the season, we saw that it was the most talented rookies who produced, not the Combine-Superstars or the Great-Landing-Spots.

A lot of things will change between now and our fantasy rookie drafts, but Sammy Watkins' talent will not. He should be drafted #1 overall in all formats.

TALENT OVER SITUATION

JFever wrote:Sammy Watkins will be the 1.01 in nearly every dynasty league rookie draft there is. Evan's and Lee are talented but they are not the total package that Watkins is. If Watkins was in last years draft - he'd have been the 1.01. If Watkins was in the rookie draft the year before with Luck, RGIII, D.Martin, D.Wilson, Blackmon - he'd have been a top 3 pick at worst and maybe even 1.01 there as well.

Whomever is saying Watkins will not be the 1.01 is missing something. It seems that people that knock him for catching screens haven't been watching the NFL. The screen game and the back shoulder throw are now staples of many passing philosophies. These are things that Watkins excels with. Hello? Not too tough to see that if you watch football and pay attention. It has been a few years since we've seen a wr package like Watkins. Actually no - I think Watkins' game speed, athleticism, HR threat, and all around playmaking ability remind me a lot of some aspects of T. Austin's game combined with Hopkins game, combined with Patterson's game. lol. Watkins is a bigger version of T.Austin and he was taken at 1.01 in many leagues last year, Watkins is just 4 inches taller and 30 plus lbs heavier but has similar speed. If people pass on talent like that due to situation - they are, imo, playing the game (dynasty football) the wrong way. I wonder how many people passed on AJG when Cinci took him (remember how bad Cinci was at the time? Heck they drafted Dalton that year to be AjG's Qb. Not a good short term destination -Yuck) Did people really pass on Calvin or down grade his draft stock when Det took him? If they did - how do the feel now I wonder.

Now - I'm not saying Watkins is at the same level as AJG or Calvin right now, but what I am saying is that talent level wise / compared to his peers - Watkins IS that much better of a talent than the next guy. No way any of the Rb deserve to go 1st in this years draft class. No way (super flex / 2 qb leagues aside) that any qb goes first in most dyno leagues. And there is no single wr that has separated himself from the pack other than Watkins. He has fewer question marks than any of the players projected to go in the top 10. I think it is borderline dynasty suicide to lower Watkins draft stock because he may end up with the NYJ or Oak. You have to take him based on his talent. Or trade back. Yes, it sucks a bit but you have to trust the talent because / believe it or not - it should eventually shine through. Situations change, Qb's change, Offensive philosophies change, Head coaches change, Offensive coordinators change, O-lineman change, etc etc. Talent is talent. Watkins should be the 1.01 of this years draft class. Case closed.

Gonna have to disagree on him being 1.01 in past 2 drafts.

DallasN1213 wrote: Gonna have to disagree on him being 1.01 in past 2 drafts.

Well, considering he said "might be" in regards to 2012 draft and said he would be a top 3 pick though. I'm curious who you have ahead of him in 2013 draft.