AB v Thielen v 1.02+

[JoshuaGordon_9]

Which option above would you take? Thielen is currently my WR3 and my lack of depth in a 3Flx league makes me a bit nervous. Guy with the 1.02 has been inquiing about Thielen, and I know the guy with Brown wants the 1.02, but owner doesn't want Brown. Would you try and move Thielen for 1.02+2.03 and then flip those for AB? Stay with picks? Stay with Thielen? I do love Thielen, but everyone has their value!

My Team:
Rodgers, Cousins, Foles
Barkley, Kamara, Chubb, Hunt, Foreman
Allen, Hilton, Thielen, Boyd, Sutton, Allison
Ertz, I. Thomas

Guy with the picks: (Rebuilding)
Mayfield, Stafford, Allen
White, McKinnon, Richard, Booker, Carsen
Sanders, Tate, Samuel, Gabriel, T. Williams, Goodwin, ESB
Doyle, Hurst, Gesicki
1.02, 1.09, 1.12, 2.01, 2.03, 2.07, 2.08, 3.06, 4.03, 4.07.

Guy with AB: (contender)
Brees, Eli
Connor, Mack, DJ, Drake, Ballage
Hopkins, OBJ, Julio, AB, AJG, Stills, Crowder, Hamilton, Quinn
Henry, Olsen
1.10

[M-Dub]

If you could turn Thielen into AB, I would do it 10 times out of 10.

[JoshuaGordon_9]

If you could turn Thielen into AB, I would do it 10 times out of 10.

I do see AB>AT, however, I also see AT being relevant a lot longer than AB. He's also much more desireable in trade talks in our league. Besides myself, and the guy who currently owns AB, everyone runs scared of the "age 30" I'm about 95% sure that if I trade for AB now, he will probably retire on my team.

Realistically I see AB as a WR1 for maybe 2 more years, and then probably hitting his cliff.
I see AT being a low end WR1 for 3-4+ years.

[sloth8u]

I have it thielen, 2, brown.

[JoshuaGordon_9]

I have it thielen, 2, brown.

Any reason you are "down" on Brown? Or just higher on the others?

[M-Dub]

If you could turn Thielen into AB, I would do it 10 times out of 10.

I do see AB>AT, however, I also see AT being relevant a lot longer than AB. He's also much more desireable in trade talks in our league. Besides myself, and the guy who currently owns AB, everyone runs scared of the "age 30" I'm about 95% sure that if I trade for AB now, he will probably retire on my team.

Realistically I see AB as a WR1 for maybe 2 more years, and then probably hitting his cliff.
I see AT being a low end WR1 for 3-4+ years.

I guess I just disagree on their career arcs. AB is a truly generational talent and I think he’s capable of putting up WR1 numbers well into his 30s, like Jerry Rice and Fitz before him. Thielen is a nice player, but he’s nowhere near AB’s league.

The only thing that might make me think twice is that WRs often struggle in their first year in a new offense. If you feel confident that AB has a “down” year (so maybe low-end WR1 by his lofty standards), you might be able to get AB+ for Thielen this time next year. But Thielen will be 29 himself at that point, and if AB does what AB does in Oakland this year, you could be seriously regretting not making this happen when you had the chance.

[sloth8u]

I have it thielen, 2, brown.

Any reason you are "down" on Brown? Or just higher on the others?

I dont envision ab getting the quanity or quality targets he did with big ben. The talent in pitt was significantly better than what he has in oakland. I dont think the Raiders in general will be able to cope with all the antics brown has shown for awhile now.

I dont have the numbers, but believe ab regularly was among the league leaders in targets each year. Coop was targeted around 130 times a year. Something has to give here.

I also have little faith in carr and the Raiders in general right now. Ive stated before that i wouldnt be shocked to see ab finish outside the top 20 at the position and still have those thoughts. 31 when the season starts....time is not on his side reguardless of how long he decides to play.

[JoshuaGordon_9]

I have it thielen, 2, brown.

Any reason you are "down" on Brown? Or just higher on the others?

I dont envision ab getting the quanity or quality targets he did with big ben. The talent in pitt was significantly better than what he has in oakland. I dont think the Raiders in general will be able to cope with all the antics brown has shown for awhile now.

I dont have the numbers, but believe ab regularly was among the league leaders in targets each year. Coop was targeted around 130 times a year. Something has to give here.

I also have little faith in carr and the Raiders in general right now. Ive stated before that i wouldnt be shocked to see ab finish outside the top 20 at the position and still have those thoughts. 31 when the season starts....time is not on his side reguardless of how long he decides to play.

2015:
Cooper: 130/1034/6 = 229.9pts
Crabtree: 146/922/9 = 240.2

2016:
Cooper: 131/1150/5 = 245pts
Crabtree: 145/1003/8 = 250.3

2017: Neither guy topped 700yds - Just awful
2018: Top WR was Jordy Nelson, and Cook was best recieving option

Brown during this stretch:
193/154/162/169 (receptions)

I absolutely think Carr can provide the amount of targets to Brown for him to be WR1 relevant again. In fact, he is good enough to have two WRs over 130 targets. They just need to be quality WRs. 2018 the best WR option was 32 year old Jordy Nelson.

That being said, Brown does make me nervous. age, new team, a much worse team, step back at QB, no RB... makes me nervous

[sloth8u]

Any reason you are "down" on Brown? Or just higher on the others?

I dont envision ab getting the quanity or quality targets he did with big ben. The talent in pitt was significantly better than what he has in oakland. I dont think the Raiders in general will be able to cope with all the antics brown has shown for awhile now.

I dont have the numbers, but believe ab regularly was among the league leaders in targets each year. Coop was targeted around 130 times a year. Something has to give here.

I also have little faith in carr and the Raiders in general right now. Ive stated before that i wouldnt be shocked to see ab finish outside the top 20 at the position and still have those thoughts. 31 when the season starts....time is not on his side reguardless of how long he decides to play.

2015:
Cooper: 130/1034/6 = 229.9pts
Crabtree: 146/922/9 = 240.2

2016:
Cooper: 131/1150/5 = 245pts
Crabtree: 145/1003/8 = 250.3

2017: Neither guy topped 700yds - Just awful
2018: Top WR was Jordy Nelson, and Cook was best recieving option

Brown during this stretch:
193/154/162/169 (receptions)

I absolutely think Carr can provide the amount of targets to Brown for him to be WR1 relevant again. In fact, he is good enough to have two WRs over 130 targets. They just need to be quality WRs. 2018 the best WR option was 32 year old Jordy Nelson.

That being said, Brown does make me nervous. age, new team, a much worse team, step back at QB, no RB... makes me nervous

You have essentially highlighted my concerns. Carr is feeding these guys at a lesser rate than ben did brown. Coop & crabs are barely cracking 1000 yds while ab is putting up 1300+ (4 of 6 yrs 1500+). Coop and crabs dont catch 100 balls, pitt ab puts up 100 receptions every (or nearly every) year. Neither coop or crabs were able to reach double digit tds while brown did nearly every year since breaking out. Most importantly....its been 2 seasons since carr was able to produce a relevant wr option for us.

I dont blame ab owners for being optimistic. Brown has carried their franchises for years, but ignoring carr the last 2 yrs is a mistake imo.

My biggest concern is that the consistency will be gone. He could have a couple big games and the rest meh....and still finish with 200 pts on the season. A decent option, but still not the player putting up 300+ that we're acustom to. Worse yet, he could get overlooked by carr for whatever reason and we're stuck with the dilemma if he's even startable. Ask coop owners how that went for them.

Carr has to show something before I'll buy into oakland ab.

[JoshuaGordon_9]

I dont envision ab getting the quanity or quality targets he did with big ben. The talent in pitt was significantly better than what he has in oakland. I dont think the Raiders in general will be able to cope with all the antics brown has shown for awhile now.

I dont have the numbers, but believe ab regularly was among the league leaders in targets each year. Coop was targeted around 130 times a year. Something has to give here.

I also have little faith in carr and the Raiders in general right now. Ive stated before that i wouldnt be shocked to see ab finish outside the top 20 at the position and still have those thoughts. 31 when the season starts....time is not on his side reguardless of how long he decides to play.

2015:
Cooper: 130/1034/6 = 229.9pts
Crabtree: 146/922/9 = 240.2

2016:
Cooper: 131/1150/5 = 245pts
Crabtree: 145/1003/8 = 250.3

2017: Neither guy topped 700yds - Just awful
2018: Top WR was Jordy Nelson, and Cook was best recieving option

Brown during this stretch:
193/154/162/169 (receptions)

I absolutely think Carr can provide the amount of targets to Brown for him to be WR1 relevant again. In fact, he is good enough to have two WRs over 130 targets. They just need to be quality WRs. 2018 the best WR option was 32 year old Jordy Nelson.

That being said, Brown does make me nervous. age, new team, a much worse team, step back at QB, no RB... makes me nervous

You have essentially highlighted my concerns. Carr is feeding these guys at a lesser rate than ben did brown. Coop & crabs are barely cracking 1000 yds while ab is putting up 1300+ (4 of 6 yrs 1500+). Coop and crabs dont catch 100 balls, pitt ab puts up 100 receptions every (or nearly every) year. Neither coop or crabs were able to reach double digit tds while brown did nearly every year since breaking out. Most importantly....its been 2 seasons since carr was able to produce a relevant wr option for us.

I dont blame ab owners for being optimistic. Brown has carried their franchises for years, but ignoring carr the last 2 yrs is a mistake imo.

My biggest concern is that the consistency will be gone. He could have a couple big games and the rest meh....and still finish with 200 pts on the season. A decent option, but still not the player putting up 300+ that we're acustom to. Worse yet, he could get overlooked by carr for whatever reason and we're stuck with the dilemma if he's even startable. Ask coop owners how that went for them.

Carr has to show something before I'll buy into oakland ab.

All Fair concerns. Appreciate the information! It's nothing written in stone yet, but I know this other owner quite well, IF I make that move for the 1.02, he will come knocking. Just want to be preparred.

[Gator Sens]

I would probably hold Thielen here. I think he is a lock for 1000+ yards and 8-10 TD's a year for the next 2-3 years which is great production. AB is in a new system, so he is a wait and see for me and he also seems to be a ticking time bomb on and off the field whereas you hear nothing about Thielen.

[killer_of_giants]

why would someone rebuilding give away a 1.02 to get thielen??

[JoshuaGordon_9]

why would someone rebuilding give away a 1.02 to get thielen??

I have stopped questioning this guys tactics a long time ago. Trust me, this isn't even close to the most head scratching move. It is his first dynasty league, so I'm hoping he learns quickly.

[pokerplayer1000]

Thielen for me here....The concern with AB isnt his talent for me either. In fact he has more than likely diminished zero from a talent perspective. The issue is Carr, and how he has regressed since those above mentioned years when he supported crabtree and cooper, and also how Gruden is not going to be putting out this high flying/high pass volume offense.

Not to mention Big Ben is much better than Carr....