Postby hoos89 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:33 pm
jman3134 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:34 am
....
In the last two drafts, you could have gotten Kamara, Hunt, Ridley, Kerryon mid first round if you drafted well. Of course there is the off chance you draft poorly and the picks become worthless. You shouldn't need three chances at a stud though and you also may be betting the pick ends up top 3 based on roster composition. But, assuming it isn't a huge draft dip year...
1) I would not presume that if you're getting 3 firsts they're going to average out to 3 mid firsts. Firsts that get traded tend to be later in the draft. For instance, the picks I got for Adams are currently 1.5, 1.10 and 1.11, which some would argue is a tad light I think.
2) Bit too early to be coming down on what players are successes from 2018 (for instance, I think Kerryon is still worth about a mid-first so it's not that much of a win to have gotten him with...a mid-first). I also think 2017 was a pretty above average draft.
3) Really not a great way to value picks by looking at the best players that went in the whole draft. Hunt went in the 2nd round of a lot of drafts, so pretty unlikely that you'd have taken him in the mid-first.
4) I don't think 2019 is supposed to be as strong of a class.
Looking at my league's draft in 2016 you could've gotten complete busts in Laquon 1.2, Coleman 1.3, Doctson 1.4, Dixon 1.7, Carroo 1.11 and Booker 1.12. Also guys who have more or less held their value but haven't really been great either: Derrick Henry 1.5 and Shepard 1.9...could argue something similar for Fuller 1.8 (has flashed more upside but can't stay healthy). Boyd 1.10 just now coming on but a lot of people dropped him last season. You pretty much needed to have 1.1 and get Zeke or be the lucky one who drafted Thomas. It's easy to look back at that class and say "well you COULD have gotten Thomas and he's obviously the WR to own", but even given 3 shots it's not clear you would have...and then you'd have pretty much nothing.
From 2015 the picks you plausibly would've gotten with a mid-late first were Kevin White, DGB, Devante Parker, Jalen Strong, Funchess, Maxx Williams, Duke Johnson, Tevin Coleman, TJ Yeldon, Abdullah, Mariota, Winston, or Sammie Coates. Only Tevin Coleman is still worth a mid-first.
Obviously there are strong years. 2017 and 2018 may both turn out to be such years. But 2019 feels a bit closer to 2015 or 2016. Hopefully not as bad as...2012. Oof.
https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2012/ ... us-top-20/
jman3134 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:34 am
You shouldn't need three chances at a stud though....
Grossly overestimating the number of studs available in most rookie drafts based on a couple of outlier classes, I think. Entirely conceivable that you could whiff on a mid first and a couple late firsts, or even 3 mid firsts.
jman3134 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:34 am
But, assuming it isn't a huge draft dip year...
Why are you assuming that? Based on what? I haven't really seen anything to suggest this year's class will be as good as the last two.
jman3134 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:34 am
... Cooks, who, while productive, is on a different team every year and is very boom or bust in terms of his production. Tends to have long ball targets sprinkled in with 2 or 3 intermediate routes every game. So it is 5-10 or 20 every week on less targets than a true stud.
You clearly haven't watched him play this season. That's not how the Rams use him. He's 43rd in the league in average air yards per target (behind Robert Woods on his own team, and also behind Nuk, Evans and Julio). He's scored at least 14.3 fantasy points per game each of the first 4 weeks of the season. He was also decently consistent with the Saints in 2016 (2 games in single digits). He was 27th in target air yardage that year. Cooks' average catch in 2015 was only 13.5 yards so clearly not how he was being used then. His single digit games that season were 5/22/0, 3/29/0, 5/35/0, 4/41/0, 4/25/0 and 4/49/0. I don't really buy that being the result of him being used as a deep threat with only 2 or 3 intermediate routes sprinkled in per game. 13.5 yards per reception is wayyy too low for that as well.
So pretty much...that's how New England used him: he was 8th in air yards per target in 2017 and more of a boom/bust. But he doesn't play for New England anymore and all indications are that the Rams will not use him that way (and they have not through 4 games). He's been traded twice, but the Rams wanted to acquire him both years...they just didn't have a 1st round pick in the 2017 draft and the Saints wanted one. It's not like this is a dude who's getting cut or traded for a pittance. He's performed everywhere he's been and now he's in a great situation with a team that is getting him the ball.
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up
Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5
Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1