Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby hoos89 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:38 am

jetsfan5757 wrote: Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:17 am
I hear you, and I thought about flipping the picks. Bottom line is that Evans is the guy I want between those two so I am not interested in "downgrading". People make valid arguments about why Cooks isn't worth much less than Evans, but I like Evans and studs are hard to get.
I think Cooks should be considered a stud at this point. It's at best a modest downgrade (about 1 point per game) for TWO firsts. One good way to find studs is through the draft, and you're right that it's a crapshoot but if you really want to build a dominant team the way to do it is by hitting on a couple draft picks. And you could also probably use the picks to swap one of your less valuable starters for a stud if you wanted.
Titans95 wrote: Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:55 am I would GLADLY trade Cooks and 2 1sts for Gurley. I would be shocked at that trade that actually goes through in any league
And I would GLADLY sell Gurley for that in PPR (assuming it's not a funky format like points per carry or something), especially if one of the firsts was projected early (and even more so if I'm rebuilding). Gurley is a running back, and has the limited span of career and higher injury chance that comes with that position. Cooks should be considered at least 3 1sts in value...a projected early first should be considered 2. A projected late first is 1. A projected early 2nd is maybe half. So you're telling me that Gurley is worth more than 6.5 firsts, which is absolutely insane. Either that or you undervalue Cooks by a lot.
Team 1: 2012-2016
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Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby jman3134 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:41 pm

If we are looking at situation and projecting it moving forward, then sure. I think Evans is a significantly better fantasy weapon in a worse situation. Cooks is a great real life player who habitually draws a ton of pass interference calls.

I would take the Cooks side, but I think anyone valuing him at 3 1sts is kidding themselves.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance
Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby hoos89 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 2:51 pm

jman3134 wrote: Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:41 pm If we are looking at situation and projecting it moving forward, then sure. I think Evans is a significantly better fantasy weapon in a worse situation. Cooks is a great real life player who habitually draws a ton of pass interference calls.

I would take the Cooks side, but I think anyone valuing him at 3 1sts is kidding themselves.
I'm curious how long your list of people who should be worth 3 firsts is.

I sold Adams for 3 firsts this offseason (and a several people on this forum said that was about right). I would rank Adams and Cooks similarly. Not sure why you're talking about him like he's a great NFL player but NOT a great fantasy player when he's finished the last 3 seasons WR9, WR7 and WR13 and is currently WR9 in spite of only scoring 1 TD.
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Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
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Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby Oddball456 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:31 pm

I wasn't a cooks guy but he has shown he will produce on the Rams, Cooks side pretty easy for me.

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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby jman3134 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:34 am

hoos89 wrote: Mon Oct 01, 2018 2:51 pm
jman3134 wrote: Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:41 pm If we are looking at situation and projecting it moving forward, then sure. I think Evans is a significantly better fantasy weapon in a worse situation. Cooks is a great real life player who habitually draws a ton of pass interference calls.

I would take the Cooks side, but I think anyone valuing him at 3 1sts is kidding themselves.
I'm curious how long your list of people who should be worth 3 firsts is.

I sold Adams for 3 firsts this offseason (and a several people on this forum said that was about right). I would rank Adams and Cooks similarly. Not sure why you're talking about him like he's a great NFL player but NOT a great fantasy player when he's finished the last 3 seasons WR9, WR7 and WR13 and is currently WR9 in spite of only scoring 1 TD.
Very small list imo. I wouldn't have paid that for Adams either, though I would pay more for him than Cooks. Again, it very much depends where the firsts are located, whether someone wins out or not. With uncertainty involved lets assume a mid round 1st. In the last two drafts, you could have gotten Kamara, Hunt, Ridley, Kerryon mid first round if you drafted well. Of course there is the off chance you draft poorly and the picks become worthless. You shouldn't need three chances at a stud though and you also may be betting the pick ends up top 3 based on roster composition. But, assuming it isn't a huge draft dip year, three chances to acquire those guys over Cooks, who, while productive, is on a different team every year and is very boom or bust in terms of his production. Tends to have long ball targets sprinkled in with 2 or 3 intermediate routes every game. So it is 5-10 or 20 every week on less targets than a true stud.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance
Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby hoos89 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:33 pm

jman3134 wrote: Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:34 am ....
In the last two drafts, you could have gotten Kamara, Hunt, Ridley, Kerryon mid first round if you drafted well. Of course there is the off chance you draft poorly and the picks become worthless. You shouldn't need three chances at a stud though and you also may be betting the pick ends up top 3 based on roster composition. But, assuming it isn't a huge draft dip year...
1) I would not presume that if you're getting 3 firsts they're going to average out to 3 mid firsts. Firsts that get traded tend to be later in the draft. For instance, the picks I got for Adams are currently 1.5, 1.10 and 1.11, which some would argue is a tad light I think.
2) Bit too early to be coming down on what players are successes from 2018 (for instance, I think Kerryon is still worth about a mid-first so it's not that much of a win to have gotten him with...a mid-first). I also think 2017 was a pretty above average draft.
3) Really not a great way to value picks by looking at the best players that went in the whole draft. Hunt went in the 2nd round of a lot of drafts, so pretty unlikely that you'd have taken him in the mid-first.
4) I don't think 2019 is supposed to be as strong of a class.

Looking at my league's draft in 2016 you could've gotten complete busts in Laquon 1.2, Coleman 1.3, Doctson 1.4, Dixon 1.7, Carroo 1.11 and Booker 1.12. Also guys who have more or less held their value but haven't really been great either: Derrick Henry 1.5 and Shepard 1.9...could argue something similar for Fuller 1.8 (has flashed more upside but can't stay healthy). Boyd 1.10 just now coming on but a lot of people dropped him last season. You pretty much needed to have 1.1 and get Zeke or be the lucky one who drafted Thomas. It's easy to look back at that class and say "well you COULD have gotten Thomas and he's obviously the WR to own", but even given 3 shots it's not clear you would have...and then you'd have pretty much nothing.

From 2015 the picks you plausibly would've gotten with a mid-late first were Kevin White, DGB, Devante Parker, Jalen Strong, Funchess, Maxx Williams, Duke Johnson, Tevin Coleman, TJ Yeldon, Abdullah, Mariota, Winston, or Sammie Coates. Only Tevin Coleman is still worth a mid-first.

Obviously there are strong years. 2017 and 2018 may both turn out to be such years. But 2019 feels a bit closer to 2015 or 2016. Hopefully not as bad as...2012. Oof.
https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2012/ ... us-top-20/
jman3134 wrote: Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:34 am You shouldn't need three chances at a stud though....
Grossly overestimating the number of studs available in most rookie drafts based on a couple of outlier classes, I think. Entirely conceivable that you could whiff on a mid first and a couple late firsts, or even 3 mid firsts.
jman3134 wrote: Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:34 am But, assuming it isn't a huge draft dip year...
Why are you assuming that? Based on what? I haven't really seen anything to suggest this year's class will be as good as the last two.
jman3134 wrote: Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:34 am ... Cooks, who, while productive, is on a different team every year and is very boom or bust in terms of his production. Tends to have long ball targets sprinkled in with 2 or 3 intermediate routes every game. So it is 5-10 or 20 every week on less targets than a true stud.
You clearly haven't watched him play this season. That's not how the Rams use him. He's 43rd in the league in average air yards per target (behind Robert Woods on his own team, and also behind Nuk, Evans and Julio). He's scored at least 14.3 fantasy points per game each of the first 4 weeks of the season. He was also decently consistent with the Saints in 2016 (2 games in single digits). He was 27th in target air yardage that year. Cooks' average catch in 2015 was only 13.5 yards so clearly not how he was being used then. His single digit games that season were 5/22/0, 3/29/0, 5/35/0, 4/41/0, 4/25/0 and 4/49/0. I don't really buy that being the result of him being used as a deep threat with only 2 or 3 intermediate routes sprinkled in per game. 13.5 yards per reception is wayyy too low for that as well.

So pretty much...that's how New England used him: he was 8th in air yards per target in 2017 and more of a boom/bust. But he doesn't play for New England anymore and all indications are that the Rams will not use him that way (and they have not through 4 games). He's been traded twice, but the Rams wanted to acquire him both years...they just didn't have a 1st round pick in the 2017 draft and the Saints wanted one. It's not like this is a dude who's getting cut or traded for a pittance. He's performed everywhere he's been and now he's in a great situation with a team that is getting him the ball.
Team 1: 2012-2016
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Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby jman3134 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:23 pm

1) I would not presume that if you're getting 3 firsts they're going to average out to 3 mid firsts. Firsts that get traded tend to be later in the draft. For instance, the picks I got for Adams are currently 1.5, 1.10 and 1.11, which some would argue is a tad light I think.
2) Bit too early to be coming down on what players are successes from 2018 (for instance, I think Kerryon is still worth about a mid-first so it's not that much of a win to have gotten him with...a mid-first). I also think 2017 was a pretty above average draft.
If we aren't provided any further information, why not assume the median or average? There is a downside, upside, and average case scenario. Your specific situation is anecdotal and would require a customized response.

Too early to say where they will be in a year. Not too early to see what they are producing now and project this forward. I agree that 2017 was above average. What is your point?
3) Really not a great way to value picks by looking at the best players that went in the whole draft. Hunt went in the 2nd round of a lot of drafts, so pretty unlikely that you'd have taken him in the mid-first.
4) I don't think 2019 is supposed to be as strong of a class.
I am not valuing them by looking at the best players or the top of the draft class. Kamara, Hunt were mid to late first round picks in most drafts and they are substantially more valuable than Cooks. What drafts are you in that Hunt went round 2? Maybe drafts from May.

I have heard the same, but it is still too early to speak in certainties, especially before the season is even over.

I understand the composition of those classes. So quantify that?

Look, if you have no idea where the picks sit, you could land the high upside case as well. Imagine two top 5 picks for Cooks? I would take the picks in that scenario. Your bet has to reflect the average case if you have no other information to go by.
Grossly overestimating the number of studs available in most rookie drafts based on a couple of outlier classes, I think. Entirely conceivable that you could whiff on a mid first and a couple late firsts, or even 3 mid firsts.
Again, why are we assuming late 1sts. Three late 1sts are probably fine for Cooks. The point is that the order hasn't been decided.
Why are you assuming that? Based on what? I haven't really seen anything to suggest this year's class will be as good as the last two.
The only fair assumption given where we are in the year. Instead of jumping to a conclusion on the class out of the gate, I am reserving judgment.

You clearly haven't watched him play this season. That's not how the Rams use him. He's 43rd in the league in average air yards per target (behind Robert Woods on his own team, and also behind Nuk, Evans and Julio). He's scored at least 14.3 fantasy points per game each of the first 4 weeks of the season. He was also decently consistent with the Saints in 2016 (2 games in single digits). He was 27th in target air yardage that year. Cooks' average catch in 2015 was only 13.5 yards so clearly not how he was being used then. His single digit games that season were 5/22/0, 3/29/0, 5/35/0, 4/41/0, 4/25/0 and 4/49/0. I don't really buy that being the result of him being used as a deep threat with only 2 or 3 intermediate routes sprinkled in per game. 13.5 yards per reception is wayyy too low for that as well.

So pretty much...that's how New England used him: he was 8th in air yards per target in 2017 and more of a boom/bust. But he doesn't play for New England anymore and all indications are that the Rams will not use him that way (and they have not through 4 games). He's been traded twice, but the Rams wanted to acquire him both years...they just didn't have a 1st round pick in the 2017 draft and the Saints wanted one. It's not like this is a dude who's getting cut or traded for a pittance. He's performed everywhere he's been and now he's in a great situation with a team that is getting him the ball.
Wait to be disingenuous with your air yards statistic. Looking at the average, you do not account for the fact that he is probably thrown some screen routes, lowering the avg play considerably.

No need to cherry pick stats to fit your narrative. He was used on screen plays for short yardage in NO. In 2018, he ranks near the top with 9 20+ yard pass plays and 2 40+ yard plays. He is one of the best deep threats in the game. Don't see how you can possibly say he isn't used that way or won't be used to stretch the field. His speed is the reason the Rams brought him in. My point was he often draws PI calls, which doesn't exactly translate to fantasy.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Trey Lance
Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby JSylvester87 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:30 pm

Cooks has pretty much been a WR1 his entire career and is far more valuable to an NFL team than Mike Evans. Sorry, but fantasy wise I’d take Cooks any day over Evans.
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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:31 pm

Stop. Cooks and a 2nd is well than enough for Evans. 2 1st is stupid value. End of discussion.

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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby hoos89 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:05 pm

jman3134 wrote: Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:23 pm If we aren't provided any further information, why not assume the median or average? There is a downside, upside, and average case scenario. Your specific situation is anecdotal and would require a customized response.
Because firsts that get traded tend to be later than average. Contenders sell firsts for a playoff push. Rebuilds buy firsts. The odds of getting THREE projected mid firsts at once in a deal are fairly remote, I think. Obviously crazy things happen and owners finish worse than expected or owners of bad teams make bad trades, but by and large in my experience it's very difficult to get a rebuilding owner's first. That's why.

jman3134 wrote: Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:23 pm Too early to say where they will be in a year. Not too early to see what they are producing now and project this forward. I agree that 2017 was above average. What is your point?
Obviously that you can't use 2017 to judge the value of a 2019 first...because 2017 was above average and there's no indication that 2019 will be.
I am not valuing them by looking at the best players or the top of the draft class. Kamara, Hunt were mid to late first round picks in most drafts and they are substantially more valuable than Cooks. What drafts are you in that Hunt went round 2? Maybe drafts from May.
Hunt's listed as having been the #7 RB in ADP in June here: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/adp/r ... 017&pos=RB. Certainly not a mid-first. He went in the 2nd round of my league's draft, which sounds about average.
I have heard the same, but it is still too early to speak in certainties, especially before the season is even over.
Nobody said anything about certainties but you really should be accounting for the projected quality of a class when valuing picks.
Look, if you have no idea where the picks sit, you could land the high upside case as well. Imagine two top 5 picks for Cooks? I would take the picks in that scenario. Your bet has to reflect the average case if you have no other information to go by.
We're almost 1/3 of the way through the fantasy regular season. We have information to go on at this point. The stacked teams in my league are not missing the playoffs. The winless teams are not making it.
Again, why are we assuming late 1sts. Three late 1sts are probably fine for Cooks. The point is that the order hasn't been decided.
As mentioned above, if someone is giving you 3 firsts for a player...pretty good chance at least 2 are late. If one of them is early that bears particular mention as it's essentially worth 2 firsts. Also see above re: order not being decided.
The only fair assumption given where we are in the year. Instead of jumping to a conclusion on the class out of the gate, I am reserving judgment.
Poor way to value things. It's not like a court of law where players are valuable until proven otherwise. Attributing value to them is its own form of judgment. We absolutely can and should account for the projected value of fantasy prospects next year at this point.

Wait to be disingenuous with your air yards statistic. Looking at the average, you do not account for the fact that he is probably thrown some screen routes, lowering the avg play considerably.

No need to cherry pick stats to fit your narrative. He was used on screen plays for short yardage in NO. In 2018, he ranks near the top with 9 20+ yard pass plays and 2 40+ yard plays. He is one of the best deep threats in the game. Don't see how you can possibly say he isn't used that way or won't be used to stretch the field. His speed is the reason the Rams brought him in. My point was he often draws PI calls, which doesn't exactly translate to fantasy.
I'm sorry....what? You said that Cooks "[t]ends to have long ball targets sprinkled in with 2 or 3 intermediate routes every game. So it is 5-10 or 20 every week on less targets than a true stud." Now you're claiming that screens are why his air yardage per target is so low? So if you say that he drops down the rankings of air yards per target a lot because he gets more screens thrown his way than the wide receivers above him on the list (which is the only way it would actually drop him in the ranking because, y'know...other receivers' air yards/target also drop due to getting thrown screens), you are necessarily admitting that he gets a lot of screens thrown for him...which (a) you have presented 0 evidence of and (b) DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS YOUR POINT that he only gets targeted no deep routes and the occasional deep route. I at no point said that he "isn't a deep threat or won't be used to stretch the field". My point is that he's used in a variety of ways with the Rams and shouldn't be viewed as a boom/bust player....and getting screens thrown his way is a boon to his floor.

But seriously...how is air yards per target a cherry picked stat? I just...can't even. You're wrong.
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby jman3134 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:47 am

Because firsts that get traded tend to be later than average. Contenders sell firsts for a playoff push. Rebuilds buy firsts. The odds of getting THREE projected mid firsts at once in a deal are fairly remote, I think. Obviously crazy things happen and owners finish worse than expected or owners of bad teams make bad trades, but by and large in my experience it's very difficult to get a rebuilding owner's first. That's why.
Because Cooks at 25 could not be the target of a rebuild? Has to be 22-23 or he wouldn't be considered? Conceivably, any team could be in the Brandin Cooks sweepstakes. If you want to make those assumptions, fine. But unless you have a crystal ball, 4 games isn't enough to tell much of anything. We just had our first week of bye games.
Obviously that you can't use 2017 to judge the value of a 2019 first...because 2017 was above average and there's no indication that 2019 will be.
You could if you have high expectations for the class. My example was only to illustrate that you could end up landing a stud with one pick in a highly strong draft class. Then you are left with 2 additional firsts. I never said this was the norm, but instead a possibility. The only point I made is that it shouldn't take 3 firsts to find that elite talent.
Hunt's listed as having been the #7 RB in ADP in June here: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/adp/r ... 017&pos=RB. Certainly not a mid-first. He went in the 2nd round of my league's draft, which sounds about average.
Again arguing for the sake of it. I said your draft must be around May if you are using June ADP to support your point. Drafts in August (like mine and many others) represent a marked departure from these rankings.
Nobody said anything about certainties but you really should be accounting for the projected quality of a class when valuing picks.
The people saying this class doesn't have firepower of past years have 0 clue. It's early in the college football season and we have no idea how the NFL draft will play out. Prospects like Wentz and others were late bloomers. We also have no idea who will declare.

I see the value of the 2020 class over 2019 based on RB prospects, but that is just personal preference and there are a ton of question marks.
Poor way to value things. It's not like a court of law where players are valuable until proven otherwise. Attributing value to them is its own form of judgment. We absolutely can and should account for the projected value of fantasy prospects next year at this point.
You are right. Better to label the class early in the season with no sense for who will early enter.

You are welcome to base your decision making on your early evaluation of the class. That said, you can't say anything with high probability this early other than there appear to be more big names 2020.

I'm sorry....what? You said that Cooks "[t]ends to have long ball targets sprinkled in with 2 or 3 intermediate routes every game. So it is 5-10 or 20 every week on less targets than a true stud." Now you're claiming that screens are why his air yardage per target is so low? So if you say that he drops down the rankings of air yards per target a lot because he gets more screens thrown his way than the wide receivers above him on the list (which is the only way it would actually drop him in the ranking because, y'know...other receivers' air yards/target also drop due to getting thrown screens), you are necessarily admitting that he gets a lot of screens thrown for him...which (a) you have presented 0 evidence of and (b) DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS YOUR POINT that he only gets targeted no deep routes and the occasional deep route. I at no point said that he "isn't a deep threat or won't be used to stretch the field". My point is that he's used in a variety of ways with the Rams and shouldn't be viewed as a boom/bust player....and getting screens thrown his way is a boon to his floor.
I did say that. I was referring to his production over his last full season, which you astutely noted. Whether or not he uses intermediate routes or screen plays on the Rams is not the subject we are debating. You used air yards to indicate his average pass attempt play was not that long during his 4 games with the Rams, in an attempt to disprove that he is a boom or bust deep threat. So you concede that a significant portion of his targets will come on deep routes with the Rams (as I have stated)? Not sure what you were trying to prove otherwise.

If you are simply trying to suggest he is running a more diversified route tree with the Rams, I don't doubt that. This still doesn't negate the fact that he is best utilized as a deep threat and thus has a tendency to boom or bust.
But seriously...how is air yards per target a cherry picked stat? I just...can't even. You're wrong.
If you look at an average statistic and use it to suggest he is not catching as many long passes just to prove a point, you are cherry picking because that does not reflect reality. In reality, Cooks is a deep threat and will continue to be used as such.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
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Rb: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, Jeff Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Pierre Strong, Jordan Mason, Jaleel McLaughlin
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jakobi Meyers, Laviska Shenault, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Denzel Mims, Richie James, Michael Wilson, Demario Douglas, Trent Sherfield
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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby heyfeefellskee » Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:01 am

hoos89 wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:45 pm
Valhalla wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:19 pm Woah. Cooks has been and is a better fantasy asset than Evans IMO. Unless you’re in a league where Evans gets you Cooks and 2 firsts. Then Evans is the better asset I guess...but only because of a boneheaded or homer owner. I’d take Cooks for Evans straight up. Steal those picks
How do you figure? They've both been in the league since 2014. Evans has scored 1032.6 fantasy points to Cooks' 937.2. Not saying this isn't a steal for the team getting Cooks+, but I'd still take Evans over Cooks.
If we are going to lump 4+ seasons worth of stats together in order to make generalized valuations, let's take it a step further:

Both have played 65 games to date.

Evans has a career average of 15.89 points per game.

Cooks has a career average of 14.42 points per game.

Getting multiple firsts on top of Cooks is absolutely ridiculous. Take it and run.

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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby hoos89 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:55 am

jman3134 wrote: Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:47 am Because Cooks at 25 could not be the target of a rebuild? Has to be 22-23 or he wouldn't be considered? Conceivably, any team could be in the Brandin Cooks sweepstakes. If you want to make those assumptions, fine. But unless you have a crystal ball, 4 games isn't enough to tell much of anything. We just had our first week of bye games.
Rebuilds just don't typically trade their firsts. It's far, far less common than contenders trading them (and rebuilds know that the value they can get for their pick is likely to be greater as the draft approaches). Nobody wants to be the worst team in the league without their first. That's just not how most rebuilds operate. Seriously...if I even tried to bring up the prospect of trading their first with any of the rebuild owners in my league I get nowhere. If I suggested they trade their first AND two other firsts for a player when they're not contending, I'd get laughed at.
You could if you have high expectations for the class. My example was only to illustrate that you could end up landing a stud with one pick in a highly strong draft class. Then you are left with 2 additional firsts. I never said this was the norm, but instead a possibility. The only point I made is that it shouldn't take 3 firsts to find that elite talent.
And yet ... it could. Some years there just aren't many future fantasy studs.
You are right. Better to label the class early in the season with no sense for who will early enter.

You are welcome to base your decision making on your early evaluation of the class. That said, you can't say anything with high probability this early other than there appear to be more big names 2020.
Or, y'know...use the information we have to try to make a projection of value. We knew the 2018 class was going to have a ton of RB talent by now. We knew 2017 was going to be good by now.

I did say that. I was referring to his production over his last full season, which you astutely noted. Whether or not he uses intermediate routes or screen plays on the Rams is not the subject we are debating. You used air yards to indicate his average pass attempt play was not that long during his 4 games with the Rams, in an attempt to disprove that he is a boom or bust deep threat. So you concede that a significant portion of his targets will come on deep routes with the Rams (as I have stated)? Not sure what you were trying to prove otherwise.

If you are simply trying to suggest he is running a more diversified route tree with the Rams, I don't doubt that. This still doesn't negate the fact that he is best utilized as a deep threat and thus has a tendency to boom or bust.
What we are debating is how much of a boom/bust player and whether he is, as you said, almost exclusively used on deep routes with a few intermediate routes sprinkled in. And yeah having lower air yardage per target (be that because of screens or otherwise) absolutely does negate the tendency to be a boom/bust player. If he's getting more targets on shorter routes then he will tend to have fewer weeks with single digit points. His weeks so far have hardly followed a boom/bust pattern: 14, 23, 16, 26. So he's either been good or really good. That he has a good number of targets deep doesn't negate the fact that his average air yards are pretty low compared to other receivers, which means he is not being used almost exclusively as a deep threat....and means he's less likely to bust in any given week than he was with the Pats (when his air yardage per target was much higher).
If you look at an average statistic and use it to suggest he is not catching as many long passes just to prove a point, you are cherry picking because that does not reflect reality. In reality, Cooks is a deep threat and will continue to be used as such.
You're misinterpreting the point or intentionally moving the goal posts, not sure which. You were suggesting that he catches almost exclusively deep passes with a few intermediate routes sprinkled in and therefore he's a boom/bust play. His average air yards stat shows that has absolutely not been the case through 4 weeks with the Rams. That he is also a deep threat does not mean that he is being exclusively or even primarily used as such (compare to, say, #1 on the list John Brown's usage). That Cooks gets some usage on screens doesn't make the stat cherry picked...it just makes it correctly show that he's not being used in the way you described and is therefore less likely to be a bust any given week than if he was being used more similarly to last season.
Last edited by hoos89 on Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:04 am, edited 3 times in total.
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby hoos89 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:56 am

heyfeefellskee wrote: Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:01 am
hoos89 wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:45 pm
Valhalla wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:19 pm Woah. Cooks has been and is a better fantasy asset than Evans IMO. Unless you’re in a league where Evans gets you Cooks and 2 firsts. Then Evans is the better asset I guess...but only because of a boneheaded or homer owner. I’d take Cooks for Evans straight up. Steal those picks
How do you figure? They've both been in the league since 2014. Evans has scored 1032.6 fantasy points to Cooks' 937.2. Not saying this isn't a steal for the team getting Cooks+, but I'd still take Evans over Cooks.
If we are going to lump 4+ seasons worth of stats together in order to make generalized valuations, let's take it a step further:

Both have played 65 games to date.

Evans has a career average of 15.89 points per game.

Cooks has a career average of 14.42 points per game.

Getting multiple firsts on top of Cooks is absolutely ridiculous. Take it and run.
Wasn't arguing that. Just saying that Evans > Cooks, but also said that the value offered for Cooks is too good to pass up several times in this thread. Post I was responding too was saying that Cooks is and has been a better fantasy player, which I disagree with.
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

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Re: Mike Evans for Brandin Cooks ++

Postby HereForTheComments » Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:08 pm

Valhalla wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:19 pm Woah. Cooks has been and is a better fantasy asset than Evans IMO. Unless you’re in a league where Evans gets you Cooks and 2 firsts. Then Evans is the better asset I guess...but only because of a boneheaded or homer owner. I’d take Cooks for Evans straight up. Steal those picks
Better fantasy asset?? If we are comparing their careers, I would like to know what league settings you are using to come to this conclusion.
Team 1: 10th Year: 10 Team, PPR
2014: 3rd, 2015: 2nd, 2016: League Champion, 2017: 7th, 2018: 3rd, 2019: 5th, 2020: League Champion, 2021: 4th, 2022: 5th

QB: Aaron Rodgers Matthew Stafford, Brock Purdy
RB: Tony Pollard, Cam Akers, Ezekiel Elliott, Javonte Williams, Kyren Williams, Chuba Hubbard
WR: CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Allen Lazard , Michael Gallup, Donavan Peoples-Jones, Tyler Boyd, Romeo Doubs, Corey Davis, Marvin Jones, VDS
TE: Dalton Shultz, Mike Gesicki

2019 picks: 1.1, 2.3, 3.5
2024 picks:
Round 1: (1)
Round 2: (1)
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