Trying to move up in rookie draft

[Jetsfan06]

So I have a deep wide receiver group, but at RB I have DJ, and aging mccoy and then mostly a bunch of low upside handcuffs/backups. I currently own the 9th and 11th picks in the rookie draft and am trying to use the 11th plus later picks to move up. I have an offer from the team with the 8th pick:

I get :
8th pick
2019 3rd

I give up:
11th pick
15th pick (2nd rounder) in 2018
2nd round pick in 2019
4th round pick in 2018

Btw I have two 2nd rounders this year so I would stilll be selecting in the later half of the second round if I made this trade.

Right now most rookie projections have the top 8 picks being all running backs, and then a sharp drop off at that position afterwards. So my logic is to try and jump to 8 to guarantee that I get an RB, and then if I am lucky I can get two rbs if someone before me picks a wide receiver. Am I paying too much to guarantee I get at least one rb (it also allows me to have back to back picks). I should be a playoff contending team, but my lack of depth at rb could hurt me. Any thoughts are appreciated!

[Alex116]

My main concern would be if you're looking for a starter for this year, the guys in the 7-8 range in most drafts (as far as RB 7 and 8), may not be immediate starters or could find themselves in committees this year? Unless someone intriguing falls to 8 and you make a move when 8 is OTC, you may find you're getting an RB who doesn't help you out a ton this season? IF you're good with what you have for this year and are looking towards the future, it's not a bad move. Next year is supposedly WR heavy so you may have to wait till 2020 otherwise for RB help?

[bjd5211]

Looks about right to me.

[Jetsfan06]

Ya I’m thinking more long term, I would love for the rbs to give me immediate value, but If I need to wait a year or two then I could probably bit the bullet.

[jomaed]

Hard pass for me. Id rather try and use the 2nds or maybe even the 1st to buy a proven back. Someone most certainly will have rookie fever.

[Dirty Mike&the Boys]

Way too much to move up from 11 to 8. The RB's to me drop off after pick 4~. No saying you're going to get 'your guy' at 8. Anyways, keep your 11 & 18 and go BPA.

[Jetsfan06]

Leaning towards tabling it until the draft occurs and then only pulling the trigger if two rbs are left to take. Thanks everybody!

[BigBawseRoss]

Leaning towards tabling it until the draft occurs and then only pulling the trigger if two rbs are left to take. Thanks everybody!

yup simply say you are into it but only if your target is available at 8. they should understand i would hope

[Goddard]

I don't really see much of a gap between 8 and 11. I wouldn't pay that much to move up 3 spots.

[bjd5211]

I don't really see much of a gap between 8 and 11. I wouldn't pay that much to move up 3 spots.

Numerically you're right there isn't, but the issue is like he says most drafts are going RB 1-8, occasionally DJ will slip in there and a RB will slip to 9. There is virtually no chance any of those RBs will be available at 11 though, so in order to get one you have to move up. For me there is a pretty significant drop in the value of picks after #9 this year, so a jump from 11 to 8 would cost more this year than it did last year.

[Goddard]

I don't really see much of a gap between 8 and 11. I wouldn't pay that much to move up 3 spots.

Numerically you're right there isn't, but the issue is like he says most drafts are going RB 1-8, occasionally DJ will slip in there and a RB will slip to 9. There is virtually no chance any of those RBs will be available at 11 though, so in order to get one you have to move up. For me there is a pretty significant drop in the value of picks after #9 this year, so a jump from 11 to 8 would cost more this year than it did last year.

I'd rather take one of the top WRs over the 8th best RB anyways. So to me, staying at 11 might even get him the better player. Just because he needs a RB, doesn't mean he has to reach and draft one.

[bjd5211]

I don't really see much of a gap between 8 and 11. I wouldn't pay that much to move up 3 spots.

Numerically you're right there isn't, but the issue is like he says most drafts are going RB 1-8, occasionally DJ will slip in there and a RB will slip to 9. There is virtually no chance any of those RBs will be available at 11 though, so in order to get one you have to move up. For me there is a pretty significant drop in the value of picks after #9 this year, so a jump from 11 to 8 would cost more this year than it did last year.

I'd rather take one of the top WRs over the 8th best RB anyways. So to me, staying at 11 might even get him the better player. Just because he needs a RB, doesn't mean he has to reach and draft one.

And I prefer all of the RBs over all of the WRs this year except maybe DJ. That's just our personal rankings on the players this year.

The fact is though regardless of how we rank the players ourselves, those 8 RBs are almost never falling to the 11th pick. If that's who you want then you have to move up, and I think the deal OP mentioned is in line with the difference in value between the two picks this year.

[Mkh3225]

What's his WR situation look like? Maybe try and pair Robby Anderson and the 11th pr something? You have plenty of lesser, but still valuable WRs that you could use to move up without giving up all those picks. I'd try that but I don't think it's the worst deal ever if you decided to go for it.

[dblj1199]

I don't really see much of a gap between 8 and 11. I wouldn't pay that much to move up 3 spots.

Agreed here, the gap isn't huge and I'd rather simply take the bpa at 11. The talent later in the first is all a crap shoot, so basically so I'd rather have a few lottery tickets than one lottery ticket.