Trey Burton draft value?

[OCPunisher]

Hello friends,

One of the mostly forgotten parts of our annual summer rookie draft is that free agents are also included in the pool of available players. In most years, that doesn't really amount to much. However, our league also has a three-year contract policy on all players to increase roster activity, so a few names have made it into this year's pool.

At the top of the list of non-rookie free agents that could be drafted this year is Trey Burton. My roster below (team 1) has a reasonable hole to fill after Hunter Henry went down, although Kyle Rudolph is very capable starter, and Burton would be a nice fill-in for a contending team.

So, the question becomes what is Burton's value in terms of draft picks? The latest round of ADP data from this fine site puts him 13th on the list, in between the likes of Christian Kirk, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, and Anthony Miller. What would you pay in 2018 picks to get Burton? Is he even worth the investment now that he's signed a big contract?

[BigBawseRoss]

mid 2nd prob right around those wr, i have him after sutton, miller and kirk but before gallup

didnt understand that last line about the big contract but i wouldnt focus on it as a negative that the guy got paid starter money (assuming you meant it was a bad thing)

[OCPunisher]

mid 2nd prob right around those wr, i have him after sutton, miller and kirk but before gallup

didnt understand that last line about the big contract but i wouldnt focus on it as a negative that the guy got paid starter money (assuming you meant it was a bad thing)

That last line was mostly just noting that Burton has now gotten paid as opposed to being in a contract year or the like which could have motivated him into over-performing.

[PRESxWASHINGTON]

Typically rookie fever might be able to help him slide in draft but he is getting quite a bit of hype. I would still probably stand pat at 2.09 and hope he falls.

[Titans95]

mid 2nd prob right around those wr, i have him after sutton, miller and kirk but before gallup

didnt understand that last line about the big contract but i wouldnt focus on it as a negative that the guy got paid starter money (assuming you meant it was a bad thing)

That last line was mostly just noting that Burton has now gotten paid as opposed to being in a contract year or the like which could have motivated him into over-performing.

I believe someone did a study about fantasy production on contract years and it was debunked as a myth. at 26 years old wouldn't you think if he performs well he will get an even bigger contract on his next deal? Thats a pretty nice motivation on its own, not to mention most nfl contracts are not even close to fully guaranteed to that big number you see its that big unless he produces. With that being said I would take him before WAshington/Pettis but not before Kirk/Gallup/Miller in the second round.

[Pac_Eddy]

Yes, bigger contract year performances is a myth. I did my own study on it a few years ago.

As to the question at hand, I'd put Burton at a mid second round rookie pick. I like the idea of pairing him with Kyle Rudolph as Rudolph has been so TD dependent.

[topher]

His value is roughly early 2nd but I would not buy at that price, his value is inflated due to hype. I’d go as high as mid 2nd if all my targets where gone (I like grabbing Pettis in mid 2nd)

You might be able to get him with your 2.09 as that is a 2.07 in 12 team leagues and I was valuing Burton in that format. If you could make a small deal to move up a few spots when it’s getting close I’d do it to make sure, if you really want him.

[joeya2001]

Yes, bigger contract year performances is a myth. I did my own study on it a few years ago.

As to the question at hand, I'd put Burton at a mid second round rookie pick. I like the idea of pairing him with Kyle Rudolph as Rudolph has been so TD dependent.

Im always interested in others studies, happen to have anything left from that study?

[Pac_Eddy]

Yes, I do have the data. Send me a private message with your email, I'll send it. I can't get it to upload to this forum.

[Goddard]

Mid 2nd sounds right.

[Jcedwards]

I grabbed him in our draft at 2.04.

[OCPunisher]

I grabbed him in our draft at 2.04.

Do you think he's worth moving up to get at that price?

[Jcedwards]

I grabbed him in our draft at 2.04.

Do you think he's worth moving up to get at that price?

Honestly depends on what you'd have to give up and how your league values TEs. He very well could slide to you at 2.09, but I doubt that he does. If you could package your 2.09 with a smaller piece, without having to give up way too much, I'd do it. Otherwise, I'd just stand pat.

[Ktmjelde]

Typically rookie fever might be able to help him slide in draft but he is getting quite a bit of hype. I would still probably stand pat at 2.09 and hope he falls.

He was taken at 1.09 is our recent draft... With that said he went to a team that literally had no option at TE.... I had him pegged to go around 2.03-2.05 in our draft if this team had a TE option....