Baldwin + for Diggs +

[jwall]

I was offered Stefon Diggs, Doug Martin, and a 2019 2nd round pick for my Doug Baldwin, Jamaal Williams, and Ty Montgomery for my team in my sig. I am a Vikings fan, and I am struggling to judge this trade without bias. Which side would you take?

[jcc6fd]

I like Baldwin plenty, but Diggs is the only piece that matters here. The GB RBs don’t hold enough value to raise doubt in my mind.

Go get Diggs

[BelichekYourSelf]

Baldwin very easily for me.

Baldwin last 3 years
78-1069-14
75-991-8
79-1039-8

Diggs last 3 years
54-710-4
84-903-3
64-849-8

Baldwin is the WR1 on his team, Diggs is the WR2. Diggs has never broken 1,000. Give the the guy who actually produces over the perpetually injured "potential" guy.

[skip]

Baldwin very easily for me.

Baldwin last 3 years
78-1069-14
75-991-8
79-1039-8

Diggs last 3 years
54-710-4
84-903-3
64-849-8

Baldwin is the WR1 on his team, Diggs is the WR2. Diggs has never broken 1,000. Give the the guy who actually produces over the perpetually injured "potential" guy.

I hate using x2 or +1 but I've got nothing really to add. Diggs has a lot of fans on this board but production matters and his is lacking relative to Baldwin. Even if he didn't have health issues, I'd prefer Baldwin.

I also don't believe that Cousins elevates anyone in Minnesota. He loves to spread the ball around and it will cap the upside of everyone in that offense.

[M-Dub]

Baldwin very easily for me.

Baldwin last 3 years
78-1069-14
75-991-8
79-1039-8

Diggs last 3 years
54-710-4
84-903-3
64-849-8

Baldwin is the WR1 on his team, Diggs is the WR2. Diggs has never broken 1,000. Give the the guy who actually produces over the perpetually injured "potential" guy.

So we’re going to compare Diggs’ first three years in the league to Baldwin’s prime years? And not even address the fact that Diggs is five years younger? That seems just a tad bit short-sighted. We are still playing dynasty, right?

I’m not saying Baldwin is bad or washed up by any stretch. I actually like him a lot this year as a win-now piece with P-Rich and Graham out of the picture in Seattle. But I’d still take Diggs over him 10 times out of 10. I like production as much as the next guy, but I’m not gonna chase production that has already been produced, and it’s not like Diggs has been unproductive his first three years.

Here’s an interesting thought experiment for you:

You own WR A who is 30 years old. Someone offers you 25-year-old WR B for him.

WR A last three years:
82/1227/6
118/1508/11
100/1295/12

WR B last three years:
51/788/4
29/366/3
50/778/5

Seems like a slam dunk no-brainer, right? Well WR A is Brandon Marshall at this time four years ago. WR B is... you guessed it... Doug Baldwin at this time four years ago, about to enter his fourth season in the league. Who would you rather have owned in the four years since?

[BigBawseRoss]

i like the baldwin side quite a bit more

[MEuRaH]

I think that it's close enough to even where you could take the Diggs side as a Vikings fan and have fun with it.

The one time skip and I disagree.

[skip]

Here’s an interesting thought experiment for you:

You own WR A who is 30 years old. Someone offers you 25-year-old WR B for him.

WR A last three years:
82/1227/6
118/1508/11
100/1295/12

WR B last three years:
51/788/4
29/366/3
50/778/5

Seems like a slam dunk no-brainer, right? Well WR A is Brandon Marshall at this time four years ago. WR B is... you guessed it... Doug Baldwin at this time four years ago, about to enter his fourth season in the league. Who would you rather have owned in the four years since?

These kinds of arguments don't really demonstrate much other than the ability to pull one name out as a comparative. Why not use Larry Fitzgeralrd who everyone thought was done a few years ago? Or Jordy Nelson?

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

I was offered Stefon Diggs, Doug Martin, and a 2019 2nd round pick for my Doug Baldwin, Jamaal Williams, and Ty Montgomery for my team in my sig. I am a Vikings fan, and I am struggling to judge this trade without bias. Which side would you take?

Baldwin >= Diggs
2019 2nd = Williams
Montgomery >= Martin

I think this trade is pretty fair value-wise. If you're a MIN fan, then go get Diggs.

[hudini33]

For some reason it isn't letting me quote people so I'll try my best.

1) I keep seeing people saying Diggs isn't the WR1 on his own team. Why? At worst him and Theilen are 1A, 1B. And if you watched last year, Theilen got most of his yards when plays broke down. Don't get me wrong, I love Theilen, but he is the 1B.

2) as for the Brandon Marshall argument, how does that not make sense? Marshall is one of many that could have been used there. The argument is just that you can't take a young guy, who has put up good (not great) numbers against a guy who has been in the league 5 more years (guess). This is dynasty and we look forward the future. This argument makes sense to me.

3) And lastly, WhatWouldDitkaDo makes the best point. The value is fairly even, and you should get the guy that you want.

Ok I'm done with my rant. Now I'm going to go sell my shares of Diggs because he is a terrible player (jk, not doing that)

[Ice]

Baldiwn side by a mile. Not close.

Cousins will be hitting lots of players. Diggs is just one of them. Highly doubt he will be top guy on his own team.

All those really high on Diggs might want to do an in-depth analysis on Cousins target distribution over the last few years.

[M-Dub]

Here’s an interesting thought experiment for you:

You own WR A who is 30 years old. Someone offers you 25-year-old WR B for him.

WR A last three years:
82/1227/6
118/1508/11
100/1295/12

WR B last three years:
51/788/4
29/366/3
50/778/5

Seems like a slam dunk no-brainer, right? Well WR A is Brandon Marshall at this time four years ago. WR B is... you guessed it... Doug Baldwin at this time four years ago, about to enter his fourth season in the league. Who would you rather have owned in the four years since?

These kinds of arguments don't really demonstrate much other than the ability to pull one name out as a comparative. Why not use Larry Fitzgeralrd who everyone thought was done a few years ago? Or Jordy Nelson?

Would that change your answer? Sure, Fitz and Jordy have performed better over the past four years than Marshall, but Baldwin has been good to great during that stretch as well, and is looking like he can still be productive for another 2-4 more years.

You’re a bright guy, skip. I’m pretty sure you understand that my point wasn’t that you should’ve traded Marshall for Baldwin four years ago. It’s that you shouldn’t just write off someone like Diggs after his first three seasons, especially when those first three seasons were considerably more productive than Baldwin’s first three seasons.

But if you’d prefer, let’s get back to apples-to-apples. I think it’s inherently unfair to include 2015 in this comparison, as that was not only Diggs’ rookie year, but also Baldwin’s major outlier year when he scored an unsustainable 14 TDs (he hasn’t scored more than eight in the six other seasons he’s been in the league).

If you just compare their past two seasons, Baldwin has averaged 15 PPG in PPR playing in all 32 games. Diggs has averaged 14.6 PPG playing in 27 games. One of the games Diggs missed was a meaningless week 17 contest in 2016. I’m too lazy to look it up, but it’s entirely possible that he wasn’t even actually injured for that game.

Call me crazy, but even if both guys only maintain their current pace for the remainder of their respective careers, I’d still rather have 7-8 seasons of Diggs posting 14.6 PPG in 14 games than 2-3 seasons of Baldwin posting 15 PPG in 16 games.

[BelichekYourSelf]

For some reason it isn't letting me quote people so I'll try my best.

1) I keep seeing people saying Diggs isn't the WR1 on his own team. Why? At worst him and Theilen are 1A, 1B. And if you watched last year, Theilen got most of his yards when plays broke down. Don't get me wrong, I love Theilen, but he is the 1B.

Its very easy to tell if you look at the stats.

Thielen 91-1277-4 on 143 targets.
Diggs 64-849-8 on 95 targets

One of those is clearly the WR1 and the other is very clearly the WR2.

But if you’d prefer, let’s get back to apples-to-apples. I think it’s inherently unfair to include 2015 in this comparison, as that was not only Diggs’ rookie year, but also Baldwin’s major outlier year when he scored an unsustainable 14 TDs (he hasn’t scored more than eight in the six other seasons he’s been in the league).

If you just compare their past two seasons, Baldwin has averaged 15 PPG in PPR playing in all 32 games. Diggs has averaged 14.6 PPG playing in 27 games. One of the games Diggs missed was a meaningless week 17 contest in 2016. I’m too lazy to look it up, but it’s entirely possible that he wasn’t even actually injured for that game.

Call me crazy, but even if both guys only maintain their current pace for the remainder of their respective careers, I’d still rather have 7-8 seasons of Diggs posting 14.6 PPG in 14 games than 2-3 seasons of Baldwin posting 15 PPG in 16 games.

For the record Diggs had a hip sprain and was injured that week 17 game he missed.

I think it's pointless to look more than 2-3 years in the future for dynasty purposes. Expecting 7-8 years of production from a player is very risky. Especially one that perpetually misses 2-3 games a year due to injury. I'm not trying to claim Diggs is terrible, I just think he's extremely overvalued. He's a decent WR2 when he's on the field but has an ADP at the end of the 2nd round in startups. Which is insane.

Thielen very clearly claimed the WR1 role in that offense last season. Which hurt Diggs' production last season and will do so into the future. Diggs had 112 targets in 13 games in 2016. He had 95 in 14 games in 2017.
Thielen has 92 targets in 16 games in 2016. He had 143 in 16 games in 2017.

Now compare that to Baldwin. He is the clear #1 target in Seattle, a team just lost Graham and Richardson and a ton of their defense. They are going to be throwing a ton with a bunch of targets available. Baldwin will get more looks in the redzone now that Graham is gone so those TDs could go back up.

Give me the guy in the better situation, better history of production and without the injury history every time.

[hudini33]

For some reason it isn't letting me quote people so I'll try my best.

1) I keep seeing people saying Diggs isn't the WR1 on his own team. Why? At worst him and Theilen are 1A, 1B. And if you watched last year, Theilen got most of his yards when plays broke down. Don't get me wrong, I love Theilen, but he is the 1B.

Its very easy to tell if you look at the stats.

Thielen 91-1277-4 on 143 targets.
Diggs 64-849-8 on 95 targets

One of those is clearly the WR1 and the other is very clearly the WR2

Diggs missed almost three games last year (2 full, and most of one). I know that hurts his value in fantasy, but stay with me. If you extrapolate out Diggs year to 16 games he has a line of 79-1045-10. 2 of those missed games were GB and Chicago, so I can't tell you what he would have done against them.

If you watch film, Theilen did most of his work in scrambling situations, which Keenum did a lot last year and was very good at it. When Keenum got the ball out on time, it went mostly to Diggs with Theilen and Rudolph getting their share. My point here is that Diggs is better at getting open before all hell breaks loose.

You can even look at the TDs, diggs had twice as many as Theilen. And playoffs tell slot where Diggs had 5 more catches, 105 more yards and an extra TD.

And when everything is on the line and you have one shot to win a game, you go to you number 1, right? The Minneapolis Miracle didn't go to Theilen, it went to a covered Diggs.

All in all. They are both very good receivers and I would love to have either. I view them as equal, Theilen being more consistent, with Diggs having the upside playmaker ability we all look for.

My best comparison of these two is DT and Emmanuel Sanders in DEN

[cvbuc]

Baldwin very easily for me.

Baldwin last 3 years
78-1069-14
75-991-8
79-1039-8

Diggs last 3 years
54-710-4
84-903-3
64-849-8

Baldwin is the WR1 on his team, Diggs is the WR2. Diggs has never broken 1,000. Give the the guy who actually produces over the perpetually injured "potential" guy.

So we’re going to compare Diggs’ first three years in the league to Baldwin’s prime years? And not even address the fact that Diggs is five years younger? That seems just a tad bit short-sighted. We are still playing dynasty, right?

I’m not saying Baldwin is bad or washed up by any stretch. I actually like him a lot this year as a win-now piece with P-Rich and Graham out of the picture in Seattle. But I’d still take Diggs over him 10 times out of 10. I like production as much as the next guy, but I’m not gonna chase production that has already been produced, and it’s not like Diggs has been unproductive his first three years.

Here’s an interesting thought experiment for you:

You own WR A who is 30 years old. Someone offers you 25-year-old WR B for him.

WR A last three years:
82/1227/6
118/1508/11
100/1295/12

WR B last three years:
51/788/4
29/366/3
50/778/5

Seems like a slam dunk no-brainer, right? Well WR A is Brandon Marshall at this time four years ago. WR B is... you guessed it... Doug Baldwin at this time four years ago, about to enter his fourth season in the league. Who would you rather have owned in the four years since?

Agree with all of this. You have to take Diggs at this juncture. You're maximizing Baldwin's worth before he depreciates and buying early on a player still a few years from his prime that has shown elite skills. There are numerous examples of WRs who produced nicely with some injury bumps that didn't let them unleash their full potential until year 4 and on. (Julio being the obvious one)