AB for Michael Thomas

[joeya2001]

or is the # x/12 say that many should have been WR1s

[PercyR1]

seems even - im taking AB side tho

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

I would say that Brown = Thomas + 2nd

[mike40]

I'd also take Thomas here unless you think AB will put you over the top this year. Players over 30 are risky. Even if AB is the exception he's still looking at a completely different offense possibly by next year. Ben might be done after this year and if things don't go right with bell he may also be gone. Same can be said for Brees I guess but I don't think I trade MT straight up for AB

[The.Big.Spank]

The dynasty community tends to lag in its reactions to stars aging. AB will be 30 in 45 days.
WR1s who were 30 or older in 2017: 1/12 (Larry Fitzgerald)
WR1s who were 30 or older in 2016: 1/12 (Jordy Nelson)
WR1s who were 30 or older in 2015: 2/12 (LF & Brandon Marshall)
WR1s who were 30 or older in 2014: 0/12
WR1s who were 30 or older in 2013: 0/12

MT is worth more in dynasty at this point.

Did not know that. Excellent stat

that's a good stat, but I just have a question if its available.

how many of those 30+ posted WR#s more than 3X in their career?

im just curious.

I would think all of them. Fitz for sure, Nelson probably, only because he had a late breakout might that not be so and Marshall several times as well starting when he was a rookie or 2nd year guy.

[chalorpas]

The dynasty community tends to lag in its reactions to stars aging. AB will be 30 in 45 days.
WR1s who were 30 or older in 2017: 1/12 (Larry Fitzgerald)
WR1s who were 30 or older in 2016: 1/12 (Jordy Nelson)
WR1s who were 30 or older in 2015: 2/12 (LF & Brandon Marshall)
WR1s who were 30 or older in 2014: 0/12
WR1s who were 30 or older in 2013: 0/12

MT is worth more in dynasty at this point.

I like this and agree with it, and I think Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown are pretty close. With that being said, Antonio Brown is on a whole other level of talent than most 30+ receivers, including Fitzgerald, Nelson, and Marshall. I believe Jerry Rice was a WR1 in his 30's eight times. So I could easily see Antonio Brown being a WR1 for several more years.

[notweswelker]

or is the # x/12 say that many should have been WR1s

the 'x' is the number of players 30 years or older / the #12 represents the top 12 finishers in fantasy football for that year.

so in 2017 only one wide receiver (LFitz) older than 30 had a top 12 (i.e. WR-1) fantasy season.

[notweswelker]

I like this and agree with it, and I think Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown are pretty close. With that being said, Antonio Brown is on a whole other level of talent than most 30+ receivers, including Fitzgerald, Nelson, and Marshall. I believe Jerry Rice was a WR1 in his 30's eight times. So I could easily see Antonio Brown being a WR1 for several more years.
[/quote]

I would consider him a talent on par with Larry Fitzgerald. But the NFL is brutal, and the stats do not lie about aging players. I think AB definitely COULD be the next Jerry Rice, but I'm not making that bet. He could retire suddenly (Calvin Johnson anyone?), he could sustain serious injury and lose a step, he could simply want to walk away with his brain semi-intact, he could fall off like Dez or Brandon Marshall (I know he is better than both of them but the possibility exists).
For this season I'd much rather have AB, but for the next five? Give me MT. The risks facing AB outweigh the probability he bucks them and is still producing monster seasons.