D. Foreman

[migouch99]

Thoughts on his value in a 12 team .5ppr league (team in sig)

I got offered a 2019 2nd for R.Matthews and countered with Matthews for Foreman which he rejected. I think a 3rd would do it but not sure if I'm overpaying for him or not.

[flashgordon12]

I doubt that will get it done. Most people who own Foreman are particularly enamored with him. I wouldn't call that an overpay at all

[JJRules]

Most people who own Foreman are particularly enamored with him.

^This right here

I'm a believer and held him all last season, so I'm not selling now for anything less than whatever I believe he's capable of doing. Mid-first or similar value, or go home.

[SpartacusPTech]

Probably going to take a late 1st to get it done. Maybe an early 2nd or two early-ish 2nds.

[saw061600]

Thoughts on his value in a 12 team .5ppr league (team in sig)

I got offered a 2019 2nd for R.Matthews and countered with Matthews for Foreman which he rejected. I think a 3rd would do it but not sure if I'm overpaying for him or not.

No way would Rishard+3rd get my Foreman shares. #1 analytics back in his class(not saying he is #1, just giving some info.) that did flash well last year (don't @ me Skip) and is still 21 (for another 2 weeks). Yes he's coming off a severe injury but so have many other backs that retained value (Gurley, Cook, Gordon, Chubb, etc.)

[gogobradyarm]

Yes he's coming off a severe injury but so have many other backs that retained value (Gurley, Cook, Gordon, Chubb, etc.)

None of those RB's came back from this specific injury. I'm just curious, what RB's have a history of recovering from a ruptured/torn achilles? I know Arian Foster had the injury later in his career, and he was never the same (decline was evident prior to the tear tbh). I can't think of a RB that was this young and this heavy, having this specific injury AND making a full comeback. It saps explosion, and as far as I know, we don't have good examples of players that came back from the injury at the RB position. Thoughts?

Personally, I liked Foreman prior to the injury, I just am not confident in the return to form, at least in 2018 if at all. I would not pay more than a mid 2nd straight up for him.

[dblj1199]

I grabbed Foreman off the waiver wire late last year and would sell him off for a early second. I don't think it's a overpay to add a 3rd to Matthews to get him if he can get back to what he was expected to be and flashed. Matthews is easily replaceable and the 3rd is a crap shoot, if he comes back healthy it's a steal for you.

[skip]

You are going to find a pretty big gap between the owners/sellers and potential owners/buyers... As you can see, those that are holding him think he should return value somewhere in the 1st round. Those looking to buy aren't going to pay anywhere close to that kinds of price...at least a half to a full round less.

[Vcize]

Yes he's coming off a severe injury but so have many other backs that retained value (Gurley, Cook, Gordon, Chubb, etc.)

None of those RB's came back from this specific injury. I'm just curious, what RB's have a history of recovering from a ruptured/torn achilles? I know Arian Foster had the injury later in his career, and he was never the same (decline was evident prior to the tear tbh). I can't think of a RB that was this young and this heavy, having this specific injury AND making a full comeback. It saps explosion, and as far as I know, we don't have good examples of players that came back from the injury at the RB position. Thoughts?

Personally, I liked Foreman prior to the injury, I just am not confident in the return to form, at least in 2018 if at all. I would not pay more than a mid 2nd straight up for him.

Well the problem is we are working with a sample size of like 1 here. There haven't really been any young proven backs to come back from this injury, but there also haven't really been any young proven backs to have the injury. Mikel Leshoure is probably the closest thing we have but he was pretty Meh even before he got hurt.

[saw061600]

Yes he's coming off a severe injury but so have many other backs that retained value (Gurley, Cook, Gordon, Chubb, etc.)

None of those RB's came back from this specific injury. I'm just curious, what RB's have a history of recovering from a ruptured/torn achilles? I know Arian Foster had the injury later in his career, and he was never the same (decline was evident prior to the tear tbh). I can't think of a RB that was this young and this heavy, having this specific injury AND making a full comeback. It saps explosion, and as far as I know, we don't have good examples of players that came back from the injury at the RB position. Thoughts?

Personally, I liked Foreman prior to the injury, I just am not confident in the return to form, at least in 2018 if at all. I would not pay more than a mid 2nd straight up for him.

No specific RB to my knowledge other than Foster but Foster had a lot of injuries before the straw that broke the camel back. Posted a medical study on another forum awhile back but the study was several years old (2010??? which means data was from 2008-2009 at best). Somewhere around 65% of NFL players came back after injury but, at the time of this study over 10 years ago, all played less snaps. I think the same would have been true of ACL injures not so long ago; medicine has and continues to advance at an amazing pace so it wouldn't surprise me at all if the recovery rate was much higher now with less negative long term effects. A 2013 study (NBA) showed similar results but also found that the negative impact of performance tended to be nonexistent by 2nd year following injury. At only 21, the risk seems comparable to the risk of drafting any RB and expectation of injury

[FKC]

Most people who own Foreman are particularly enamored with him.

^This right here

I'm a believer and held him all last season, so I'm not selling now for anything less than whatever I believe he's capable of doing. Mid-first or similar value, or go home.

X2.

[Goddard]

I personally wouldn't pay a 2nd and Matthews for him, but if you like him, that's not a bad price.

[gogobradyarm]

Yes he's coming off a severe injury but so have many other backs that retained value (Gurley, Cook, Gordon, Chubb, etc.)

None of those RB's came back from this specific injury. I'm just curious, what RB's have a history of recovering from a ruptured/torn achilles? I know Arian Foster had the injury later in his career, and he was never the same (decline was evident prior to the tear tbh). I can't think of a RB that was this young and this heavy, having this specific injury AND making a full comeback. It saps explosion, and as far as I know, we don't have good examples of players that came back from the injury at the RB position. Thoughts?

Personally, I liked Foreman prior to the injury, I just am not confident in the return to form, at least in 2018 if at all. I would not pay more than a mid 2nd straight up for him.

No specific RB to my knowledge other than Foster but Foster had a lot of injuries before the straw that broke the camel back. Posted a medical study on another forum awhile back but the study was several years old (2010??? which means data was from 2008-2009 at best). Somewhere around 65% of NFL players came back after injury but, at the time of this study over 10 years ago, all played less snaps. I think the same would have been true of ACL injures not so long ago; medicine has and continues to advance at an amazing pace so it wouldn't surprise me at all if the recovery rate was much higher now with less negative long term effects. A 2013 study (NBA) showed similar results but also found that the negative impact of performance tended to be nonexistent by 2nd year following injury. At only 21, the risk seems comparable to the risk of drafting any RB and expectation of injury

65% of NFL players came back after achilles tears? I'd like to see a source. Until then, the sample size is small for this injury at this position (RB), and the results are not promising. Medicine improves with time, as evident with ACL's, but that is a far more common injury at the position and until we have a bigger sample size, comparing the two with that argument is moot. I'm not a doctor, but the recovery stats for this injury at this position are not good. I believe it is unwise to invest heavily in him. If I could get a 1st or even an early 2nd for him, i'd sell in a new york second. A mid 2nd or later, he may be worth the risk.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

Thoughts on his value in a 12 team .5ppr league (team in sig)

I got offered a 2019 2nd for R.Matthews and countered with Matthews for Foreman which he rejected. I think a 3rd would do it but not sure if I'm overpaying for him or not.

1. I'd happily sell Matthews for a 2019 2nd. I value him as an early 3rd at most.
2. Foreman = late 1st / early 2nd for me, and I would have zero interest in Matthews + 3rd for Foreman.

[saw061600]

65% of NFL players came back after achilles tears? I'd like to see a source. Until then, the sample size is small for this injury at this position (RB), and the results are not promising. Medicine improves with time, as evident with ACL's, but that is a far more common injury at the position and until we have a bigger sample size, comparing the two with that argument is moot. I'm not a doctor, but the recovery stats for this injury at this position are not good. I believe it is unwise to invest heavily in him. If I could get a 1st or even an early 2nd for him, i'd sell in a new york second. A mid 2nd or later, he may be worth the risk.

The sample size was small, the injury happens fairly infrequently. I remember the football study was of only 31 players, 21 or so (whatever the near 65% number comes to) came back. I think the NBA study was of similar size, but don't remember. It's a risk for certain, even at a number of 30% that never return.