Mike Williams value

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Jfever
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Re: Mike Williams value

Postby Jfever » Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:09 pm

Phaded wrote: Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:31 am If he was in this WR class he would be the top one.

This community is hilarious sometimes.
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Re: Mike Williams value

Postby osubuckeyeman » Mon Mar 26, 2018 2:23 pm

A 3rd round rookie pick is what the value should be. Most likely a 2nd rounder would get it done. I don't think I could pay that for him myself based on a herniated disc that he suffered. I think these can be chronic and for a player, his size and the position he plays my opinion is that he could have more issues later down the line. I would pay a third though. The cost is worth the risk at that point though telling an owner that paid a 1.6 he is now worth a 3rd rounder would be a hard pill for that owner to swallow but it is what it is.

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Re: Mike Williams value

Postby Bot101 » Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:01 pm

Phaded wrote: Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:31 am If he was in this WR class he would be the top one.

This community is hilarious sometimes.
Not in my book. Ive never beem very high on him.

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Re: Mike Williams value

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:24 pm

osubuckeyeman wrote: Mon Mar 26, 2018 2:23 pm A 3rd round rookie pick is what the value should be. Most likely a 2nd rounder would get it done. I don't think I could pay that for him myself based on a herniated disc that he suffered. I think these can be chronic and for a player, his size and the position he plays my opinion is that he could have more issues later down the line. I would pay a third though. The cost is worth the risk at that point though telling an owner that paid a 1.6 he is now worth a 3rd rounder would be a hard pill for that owner to swallow but it is what it is.
This is lunacy. I too have soured on him, and wouldn't want to give up more than an early 2nd, but he is not the equivalent of a 3rd round dart throw.
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HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
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HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
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Re: Mike Williams value

Postby gausec » Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:10 pm

JFever wrote: Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:04 pm :lol: seems a bit quick on the trigger for my style. This is dynasty not redraft. Why so many give up after one year is beyond me. Too much recency bias and shinny new toy mentality throughout these forums at times. Mike Williams value imo, is still equivlent to this year's 1.06-1.08. no later. Why? Talent. Let's try a smidge of patience before we take a player that was a concensis mid first last year and demote him in less than 12 months into his rookie calendar year to a mid 2nd in this draft. Wtf? As if we as a community can say with ANY confidence that the 2nd - 5th rookie wr in class would be much different. C'mon. At times I wonder if people believe what they are typing.
This is the key point, I just don't understand why any owner would take a loss at this point of his development. I feel injuries are always overblown today, with modern medicine I'm not too afraid of any injury.
12 team, 1PPR: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex
QB: Brees, Smith, Bortles,
RB: Zeke, Freeman, Buck Allen, Duke, Burkehead, D. Lewis, A. Peterson, C. Grant, Blount
WR: Hilton, Thielen, G. Tate, Edelman, Fuller, Cobb, R. Matthews, C. Meredith, Ginn, Amendola, Pryor, Hurns, J. Matthews
TE: Kittle, Eifert, Brate, McDonald, J. James
IR: K. Dixon, Jermey Hill

2019 Picks: 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 5th
2020 Picks: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 5th

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Re: Mike Williams value

Postby osubuckeyeman » Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:16 pm

gausec wrote: Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:10 pm
JFever wrote: Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:04 pm :lol: seems a bit quick on the trigger for my style. This is dynasty not redraft. Why so many give up after one year is beyond me. Too much recency bias and shinny new toy mentality throughout these forums at times. Mike Williams value imo, is still equivlent to this year's 1.06-1.08. no later. Why? Talent. Let's try a smidge of patience before we take a player that was a concensis mid first last year and demote him in less than 12 months into his rookie calendar year to a mid 2nd in this draft. Wtf? As if we as a community can say with ANY confidence that the 2nd - 5th rookie wr in class would be much different. C'mon. At times I wonder if people believe what they are typing.
This is the key point, I just don't understand why any owner would take a loss at this point of his development. I feel injuries are always overblown today, with modern medicine I'm not too afraid of any injury.
[/quoteI

I took him 1.6 last season prior to the herniated disc and read up on the injury. It's touch and go for some people. Some recover without surgery and are fine others need surgery and some pre-post surgery never get better and becomes chronic. I do think there is a pretty good chance he has a flare up at some point and if he does they more than likely will choose surgery. The surgery does not guarantee that he won't have issues after that. The point is once you have a herniated disc it can become chronic and for a lot of people, the injury reoccurs. I packaged MW in a deal to get Mckinnon last season in a playoff push. I'm not saying I would sell but not buying at the price owners seem to want for him and most likely on my do not acquire list permanently not worth the risk to me and it's a shame because he was my number one wr on my board in 2017. Love his talent.

Don't take my word for it. Look up "herniated disc" injuries. Look up athletes with herniated discs. It's a medical condition and easy to research. Hope I'm wrong.

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Re: Mike Williams value

Postby gausec » Mon Mar 26, 2018 7:21 pm

osubuckeyeman wrote: Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:16 pm
gausec wrote: Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:10 pm
JFever wrote: Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:04 pm :lol: seems a bit quick on the trigger for my style. This is dynasty not redraft. Why so many give up after one year is beyond me. Too much recency bias and shinny new toy mentality throughout these forums at times. Mike Williams value imo, is still equivlent to this year's 1.06-1.08. no later. Why? Talent. Let's try a smidge of patience before we take a player that was a concensis mid first last year and demote him in less than 12 months into his rookie calendar year to a mid 2nd in this draft. Wtf? As if we as a community can say with ANY confidence that the 2nd - 5th rookie wr in class would be much different. C'mon. At times I wonder if people believe what they are typing.
This is the key point, I just don't understand why any owner would take a loss at this point of his development. I feel injuries are always overblown today, with modern medicine I'm not too afraid of any injury.
[/quoteI

I took him 1.6 last season prior to the herniated disc and read up on the injury. It's touch and go for some people. Some recover without surgery and are fine others need surgery and some pre-post surgery never get better and becomes chronic. I do think there is a pretty good chance he has a flare up at some point and if he does they more than likely will choose surgery. The surgery does not guarantee that he won't have issues after that. The point is once you have a herniated disc it can become chronic and for a lot of people, the injury reoccurs. I packaged MW in a deal to get Mckinnon last season in a playoff push. I'm not saying I would sell but not buying at the price owners seem to want for him and most likely on my do not acquire list permanently not worth the risk to me and it's a shame because he was my number one wr on my board in 2017. Love his talent.

Don't take my word for it. Look up "herniated disc" injuries. Look up athletes with herniated discs. It's a medical condition and easy to research. Hope I'm wrong.
Well I think you hit the issue in your analysis which was well thought out. It can flare up, or it may not. But the biggest thing is owners aren't taking that steep of a discount and buyers aren't willing to pay the premium. I'd consider moving 2.04 on draft day but I doubt the owner would move him for a significant discount, unless they were in love with a player.
12 team, 1PPR: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, Flex
QB: Brees, Smith, Bortles,
RB: Zeke, Freeman, Buck Allen, Duke, Burkehead, D. Lewis, A. Peterson, C. Grant, Blount
WR: Hilton, Thielen, G. Tate, Edelman, Fuller, Cobb, R. Matthews, C. Meredith, Ginn, Amendola, Pryor, Hurns, J. Matthews
TE: Kittle, Eifert, Brate, McDonald, J. James
IR: K. Dixon, Jermey Hill

2019 Picks: 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 5th
2020 Picks: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 5th

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Re: Mike Williams value

Postby xlur8ed » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:29 pm

Now we are armchair doctors :) Herniated discs heal, and if they don't will require surgery for fusion. It's a legit injury, but also extremely 'common', with a proven track record for longevity. Had MWilliams not been able to heal on his own (which is rather apparent he did, as he was allowed by team doctors to practice and play, just too late in the season to gain any real traction or chemistry), and needed fusion, I would absolutely blacklist him, as fusion is the beginning of the end.... but to imply his herniated disc is a worst case WebMD situation is silly. If he and the team say its fully healed, it's a non-issue to me.

I say all of this with a healed L1, L2 herniation from 18 months ago. Having been through the discomfort of a herniation, I have no doubt it's really challenging trying to push through an NFL workout or take hits. He may still be a bust, but if your only downgrade on him is his herniated disc, this shouldn't be reason alone to give him away in a trade.... we haven't even seen NFL Mike William's yet....
Team 1: 24 Team Superflex - RB/WR 1.0PPR - TE 1.5PPR - 2 Copy
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 2TE, 1SF, 3Flex
QB: Wilson, Stafford, Blough, Keenum
RB: Zeke, Gordon, Carson, Mack, Michel, White, Trayveon Williams
WR: KAllen, Kupp, Kirk, ESanders, Jeffery, PWilliams, TWilliams, RRidley, Coutee, Boykin, KCole
TE: Hooper, Olsen, Jonnu Smith, Uzomah, Akins, Alie-Cox, JReed

Team 2: 10 Team - 0.5PPR
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Flex
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Herbert
RB: CEH, Bell, Connor, Guice, Ingram, Dobbins
WR: Godwin, OBJ, Sutton, Higgins, Aiyuk, ESanders, PWilliams, Perriman, ABrown, VJefferson
TE: Kelce, Higbee

Team 3: 12 Team Superflex - 1.0PPR
Start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1SF, 3Flex
QB: JAllen, Rodgers, Brady, Mullens
RB: Zeke, Bell, Henry, DJohnson, JWhite, JJackson, BLove
WR: Adams, Kupp, Edelman, DJohnson, Jeffery, PWilliams, AMiller, PCampbell, CBeasley, Hamler, TJohnson
TE: Kelce, Hooper, Olsen, Rudolph, Uzomah

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Re: Mike Williams value

Postby hjernazian » Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:35 pm

xlur8ed wrote: Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:46 am We are assuming Mariotta is BETTER than what we saw last year. We are discounting the elite nature of Rivers (we jump to age, while disregarding the fact that for 2018, we can take a top 12 performance to the bank. Corey Davis played with...nobody. He was destined for targets and finished with:

Corey Davis:
65 targets
34 receptions
375 yards
0 touchdowns.

Thats a 52.3% catch rate, 11.0 ypr, and 5.8 ypt.

Mike Williams:
23 targets
11 receptions
95 yards
0 touchdowns

That's a 47.8% catch rate, 8.6 ypr, and 4.1 ypt

The high level statistics show both underwhelmed on a grand scale. They show Corey Davis was the 'better receiver', however they also showed mediocrity over a much larger sample size. Mike Williams is still an unknown, which to me, puts him right in the arena of value he was drafted in. If anything, it degrades Davis to some degree. What we know about Mike Williams is he can be a dominant upper end receiver, we can't neglect his college production at this point and simply say 'he didn't convert'.

We can argue about health, and what other people have had for production with 'back issues' (last I checked, the back has numerous areas of potential injury, we can't just simply say a 'back injury' is a 'back injury'. Was it a slipped disc? Pulled muscle? etc etc.)

In the end, I don't have the answer for the future of either, however I'd say both are worth holding onto for another year. Give Williams an off-season program to gain chemistry with an excellent QB, and find his role in the offense. Opportunity matters, and Corey Davis has more of it, but he was also drafted ~5 spots ahead of Williams in our dynasty worlds, and that value should remain intact.

Personally I give CD a 1.02 value this year, and MWilliams a 1.07 value this year. Anything in the 2R is simply jumping ship too early imo.
On your first point, it was a herniated disc, with significant concern that there is some nerve damage as well. The chargers are very hush-hush about this, but why wouldn't they be? if this is the case, they would likely want their high draft pick to hold some value. All i know is this is not the case, why not come out and admit it?

To your second point, I agree with everything you said and agree on your valuation completely. By my defense of CD, I am in no way saying he is a "sure thing" just a higher prospect than Mike. But... I may want the 1.07 > Mike this year.
Team 1

Superflex, 1.0 point PPR

QB: P. Mahomes $5, C. Newton $20, B. Mayfield $2, D. Brees
RB: D. Johnson $54, N. Chubb $4, T. Coleman $4, D. Henry $14, I. Crowell $3, J. Richard $9, J. Adams $3
WR: A. Robinson $41, T.Y. Hilton $24, J. Landry $25, C. Davis $4, C. Godwin $4, D. Hamilton $3, K. Cole, S. Shephard $10
TE: E. Engram $4, D. Njoku $2, K. Rudolph $3, V. McDonald $4
K/DEF: Irrelevant

2019: 2.04, 2.05, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06

Team 2

Start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE - 25 man roster + 4 TAXI

QB: T. Brady, M. Ryan, N. Foles
RB: K. Hunt, C. McCaffrey, D. Johnson, T. Coleman, S. Ware, D. Williams, Ito Smith, D. Sproles
WR: AJ Green, A. Robinson, A. Thielen, E. Sanders, G. Tate, S. Roberts
TE: J. Reed, J. Butt, M. Roberts, V. Davis, M. Williams
TAXI: S. Darnold, D. Fountain, D. Cain, Jaleel Scott

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Re: Mike Williams value

Postby hjernazian » Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:42 pm

ArrylT wrote: Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:19 am Thread debates like this is exactly a reason why I like it when DLF Writers come up with new ideas such as

https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2018/ ... ghted-adp/

We all know that no 2 dynasty owners play the same way (unless your idea of dynasty is to be a lemming).

So if you read this article you'll note that there are (at least) 5 types of owners when it comes to valuation - ranging from ultra-conservative to ultra-aggressive.

So if you're more of a market flip type owner, and have an ultra-aggressive profile, and have worries Mike Williams will keep on busting, then it makes perfect sense to sell for a mid 2nd if that is the market price atm, because of your fears that in 1 year he'll have similar value to Breshad Perriman or Philip Dorsett.

But if you're an owner who likes to build slow and steady, with an ultra-conservative profile, and give Mike Williams an incomplete grade for 2017, then it makes no sense for you to sell at anything less than the draft price you may have spent, especially if you adhere to a commonly known theory that rookies should maintain their value for at least a year. Not to mention that the hype on this years WR class is not as high as it was for the 2017 crop.
absolutely agreed. I wasn't high on him during last years rookie draft, but I remember thinking he may fall to me at 1.10 only to have the guy before me snatch him. Of the types you listed, I am more the aggressive type, HOWEVER, there's no way in hell I'd sell him for anything less than 1.3 if I owned him and got him at 1.10. He'd get a one year pass, as almost all WR's should after only one year.

I know there's a whole other strategy with a recent article on I think it was Rotoviz, might have been DLF, where it talked about how draft picks are essentially free and aggressive owners view them as one year rentals, only to maximize more value after a 1 year hold and roster spot hold up... with WRs, I disagree whole heartedly. You hold, hold, and hold, for atleast 1-2 years.

I'm just personally not a fan of Mike's game for his ADP last year. Which I think most on this thread may be misinterpreting.
Team 1

Superflex, 1.0 point PPR

QB: P. Mahomes $5, C. Newton $20, B. Mayfield $2, D. Brees
RB: D. Johnson $54, N. Chubb $4, T. Coleman $4, D. Henry $14, I. Crowell $3, J. Richard $9, J. Adams $3
WR: A. Robinson $41, T.Y. Hilton $24, J. Landry $25, C. Davis $4, C. Godwin $4, D. Hamilton $3, K. Cole, S. Shephard $10
TE: E. Engram $4, D. Njoku $2, K. Rudolph $3, V. McDonald $4
K/DEF: Irrelevant

2019: 2.04, 2.05, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06

Team 2

Start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE - 25 man roster + 4 TAXI

QB: T. Brady, M. Ryan, N. Foles
RB: K. Hunt, C. McCaffrey, D. Johnson, T. Coleman, S. Ware, D. Williams, Ito Smith, D. Sproles
WR: AJ Green, A. Robinson, A. Thielen, E. Sanders, G. Tate, S. Roberts
TE: J. Reed, J. Butt, M. Roberts, V. Davis, M. Williams
TAXI: S. Darnold, D. Fountain, D. Cain, Jaleel Scott

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Re: Mike Williams value

Postby hjernazian » Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:45 pm

gausec wrote: Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:10 pm
JFever wrote: Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:04 pm :lol: seems a bit quick on the trigger for my style. This is dynasty not redraft. Why so many give up after one year is beyond me. Too much recency bias and shinny new toy mentality throughout these forums at times. Mike Williams value imo, is still equivlent to this year's 1.06-1.08. no later. Why? Talent. Let's try a smidge of patience before we take a player that was a concensis mid first last year and demote him in less than 12 months into his rookie calendar year to a mid 2nd in this draft. Wtf? As if we as a community can say with ANY confidence that the 2nd - 5th rookie wr in class would be much different. C'mon. At times I wonder if people believe what they are typing.
This is the key point, I just don't understand why any owner would take a loss at this point of his development. I feel injuries are always overblown today, with modern medicine I'm not too afraid of any injury.
agreed. i'd rather him be the next Caroo than sell him for a dart throw.
Team 1

Superflex, 1.0 point PPR

QB: P. Mahomes $5, C. Newton $20, B. Mayfield $2, D. Brees
RB: D. Johnson $54, N. Chubb $4, T. Coleman $4, D. Henry $14, I. Crowell $3, J. Richard $9, J. Adams $3
WR: A. Robinson $41, T.Y. Hilton $24, J. Landry $25, C. Davis $4, C. Godwin $4, D. Hamilton $3, K. Cole, S. Shephard $10
TE: E. Engram $4, D. Njoku $2, K. Rudolph $3, V. McDonald $4
K/DEF: Irrelevant

2019: 2.04, 2.05, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06

Team 2

Start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE - 25 man roster + 4 TAXI

QB: T. Brady, M. Ryan, N. Foles
RB: K. Hunt, C. McCaffrey, D. Johnson, T. Coleman, S. Ware, D. Williams, Ito Smith, D. Sproles
WR: AJ Green, A. Robinson, A. Thielen, E. Sanders, G. Tate, S. Roberts
TE: J. Reed, J. Butt, M. Roberts, V. Davis, M. Williams
TAXI: S. Darnold, D. Fountain, D. Cain, Jaleel Scott

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Re: Mike Williams value

Postby mrmagloo » Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:46 pm

Just curious, how does everyone feel about Williams now? With Tyrell Williams gone now, some of those targets will go to Mike Williams and Hunter Henry and Travis. I think he is ascending. 2019 will be year three. I like his outlook.
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10 team, standard dynasty league, roster 22, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST, 1 K First Year 2018 runner up
QB- Mahomes, Winston
RB- Drake, Carson, Thompson, Chubb, R Jones, Darrel Williams, Penny, Samuels
WR- Julio, Mike Williams, JUJU, Golladay, DJ Moore, McLaurin, D Johnson
TE- OJ, Hooper
IR- Butler, Guice
TS- D Henderson, J Hill
2020- 2 firsts, 2 seconds, 3rd, 4th, 5th.

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Re: Mike Williams value

Postby saw061600 » Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:57 pm

HA HA HA HA HA at some of the negative comments regarding Williams. Was ripped for being injured but Guice value may actually have increased after his missed year. Just goes to show most people would rather you take the year off than try to tough it out...I guess.

He's about the same as Boyd in ADP but I think Williams is the better talent.
10 TM No PPR or waiver 85RST
Herbert Fields Garoppolo Ridder
JT Barkley Etienne Ingram Charb CEH
Evans Aiyuk Dionte Jeudy London JWill GWils EMoore JMyers Mims Moorex2
Andrews Kinkaid Pits Freiermuth
NBosa Quinnen DJJones Clark F-Myers Taylor Graham
Darius Okereke Kendricks DCampbell DJones Baker Kiser Brooks
Adams Simmons Vaccaro Joseph

12 TM .5ppr 45 RST
Herbert Stroud Mayfield
JT Achane Kamara Ford Pacheco Jaleel
AJB DK Godwin Aiyuk Kirk ZJones RMoore Thornton
Hock F-muth
LWilliams Payne Reed Greenard
Bernard Kendricks Warner Baker Williams Tranquil
Budda McKinney Clark Wilson

1-2QB 2-4RB 3-5WR 1-3TE 11OFF/DEF
Herbert Stafford Brock Dobbs
Taylor Jacobs Mattison Kyren Jaleel Ford Bigsby
AJB Diggs Evans Kirk McLaurin Dionte Boyd Renfrow JuJu
Kelce Pitts Deguara
Hutchinson Rousseau Greenard Travon Demarcus
QWilliams EJones TBernard Dean ShaqT Kyzir
Amos Bates Peppers Murray Fitz Clark


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