Trading Ajayi

[Farley]

Received this offer:

I give Ajayi

I get Cohen, Golladay, and 2.05

It's a 1Qb, 2Rb, 2Wr, 1Te, 2 flex ppr 1.5 Te premium

Team is:
Brady, Mariota
Fournette, Ajayi, Tevin,
Hopkins, M. Thomas, Sanders, Coleman, Doctson, Henderson
Gronk, Olsen, Howard, Njoku

1.03, 3.06, 4.04

Will be going rb with the 1.03

I have to cut down to 14 in a couple of weeks. So, I'd have to cut 2 of these players if I make the trade and don't make any more moves.

Any advice would be appreciated. Thanks.

[bigbuck22]

Given you have to cut down soon, I'm not sure i like it. The two guys you're getting would be in a group with Dotson and Coleman for the final cut.

[Cowboysfan33]

I’ve had trouble trying to move my only Ajayi share, been even turned down for Z.Jones + 1.09. I still don’t think that’s a very good offer for Ajayi plus with the cutdown situation, just pass on that.

[Goddard]

Ajayi. Not a fan of any of the pieces on the other side.

[ddog2303]

I’d keep Ajayi

[lukkynumber13]

Yuck. Ajayi for me

[Farley]

Wow. Really thought this one would be closer. Kind of feel that Cohen has a chance to put up the same total points in ppr as Ajayi.

Are we thinking Ajayi becomes the clear back in Philly this year?

What value are we placing on him in terms of a draft pick? 1.07ish?

[RB6]

Keep Ajayi.

[Farley]

With Olsen possibly retiring, does this change things since cuts would be simpler?

[bigbuck22]

Wow. Really thought this one would be closer. Kind of feel that Cohen has a chance to put up the same total points in ppr as Ajayi.

Are we thinking Ajayi becomes the clear back in Philly this year?

What value are we placing on him in terms of a draft pick? 1.07ish?

I currently think he's a 1.6-1.7 guy. I'm probably in the minority, but I like his potential a lot in that offense with a full off season under his belt.

[Johnny Canuck]

Wow. Really thought this one would be closer. Kind of feel that Cohen has a chance to put up the same total points in ppr as Ajayi.

Are we thinking Ajayi becomes the clear back in Philly this year?

What value are we placing on him in terms of a draft pick? 1.07ish?

That is terrible value for Ajayi.

What Cohen is with Nagy is a complete question mark (maybe he's sproles/tyreek hybrid...or maybe he's simply a special teams stud - complete gamble), Golladay is a flier at best (ntm they'll prob try to run more this yr, dropping his value further), and the 2.05 is a total dart throw.

Based on my opinion/watching games/offseason moves, it looks pretty clear that Ajayi is going to get quite a bit of work in Philly this yr, it should be him with Clement mixing in here and there.

But let's take opinion out of it, and look at this a bit closer to see what we can uncover.

Ajayi ran for 5.8 ypc in the reg season once he got to Philly...that would rank #2 amongst RBs in ypc. The only running back with a better ypc was Alvin Kamara with 6.1 ypc. Think about that, Kamara is #1, Ajayi was #2, then the rest of the RBs...including names like: Fournette, Hunt, Bell, Zeke, McCoy, etc. Obvs I don't rank Ajayi ahead of those guys, but this obviously illustrates that he should not be sold for peanuts and that he's a solid hold.

This is one of the best offenses in football, so he should get lots of work in the RZ (esp since Blount doesn't appear to be returning). Also, Phillys defense got even better this offseason, that combined with Wentz recovering from injury, will likely combine for a more run-based scheme than we saw last yr, esp when grinding out the clock to end games.

Young RB + Top offense + Good OL + Less competition for touches + History of production = Top 10 to 15 RB.

He'll be a RB1/RB2 tweener on a week to week basis, but he should provide decent production. Solid RB2 for sure. Probably one of the most undervalued RBs in the league currently, and a great trade target.

The only draftable players that should be ahead of him are: Barkley, Michel, Guice, and Chubb. That makes him worth the 1.05, anything less than that is rookie fever.

*For ref the 5th picked RB in rookie drafts since 2014 have been: Jeremy Hill, Ameer Abdullah, CJ Prosise, and Samaje Perine...think I'd prefer the RB in the hand, vs the two in the bush, it very well could be Hill and Perine hiding in that bush lol.
https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/a ... ph&pos=all

[topher]

Wow, one of the few scenarios where I'll select Ajayi, I just don't like the guy, but hes collectively better than all 3 those options.

[skip]

Ajayi. Not a fan of any of the pieces on the other side.

Exactly where I am. But there are plenty of Cohen supporters on here that you will probably get a couple of them telling you to take it.

[jeaton6]

Wow. Really thought this one would be closer. Kind of feel that Cohen has a chance to put up the same total points in ppr as Ajayi.

Are we thinking Ajayi becomes the clear back in Philly this year?

What value are we placing on him in terms of a draft pick? 1.07ish?

That is terrible value for Ajayi.

What Cohen is with Nagy is a complete question mark (maybe he's sproles/tyreek hybrid...or maybe he's simply a special teams stud - complete gamble), Golladay is a flier at best (ntm they'll prob try to run more this yr, dropping his value further), and the 2.05 is a total dart throw.

Based on my opinion/watching games/offseason moves, it looks pretty clear that Ajayi is going to get quite a bit of work in Philly this yr, it should be him with Clement mixing in here and there.

But let's take opinion out of it, and look at this a bit closer to see what we can uncover.

Ajayi ran for 5.8 ypc in the reg season once he got to Philly...that would rank #2 amongst RBs in ypc. The only running back with a better ypc was Alvin Kamara with 6.1 ypc. Think about that, Kamara is #1, Ajayi was #2, then the rest of the RBs...including names like: Fournette, Hunt, Bell, Zeke, McCoy, etc. Obvs I don't rank Ajayi ahead of those guys, but this obviously illustrates that he should not be sold for peanuts and that he's a solid hold.

This is one of the best offenses in football, so he should get lots of work in the RZ (esp since Blount doesn't appear to be returning). Also, Phillys defense got even better this offseason, that combined with Wentz recovering from injury, will likely combine for a more run-based scheme than we saw last yr, esp when grinding out the clock to end games.

Young RB + Top offense + Good OL + Less competition for touches + History of production = Top 10 to 15 RB.

He'll be a RB1/RB2 tweener on a week to week basis, but he should provide decent production. Solid RB2 for sure. Probably one of the most undervalued RBs in the league currently, and a great trade target.

The only draftable players that should be ahead of him are: Barkley, Michel, Guice, and Chubb. That makes him worth the 1.05, anything less than that is rookie fever.

*For ref the 5th picked RB in rookie drafts since 2014 have been: Jeremy Hill, Ameer Abdullah, CJ Prosise, and Samaje Perine...think I'd prefer the RB in the hand, vs the two in the bush, it very well could be Hill and Perine hiding in that bush lol.
https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/a ... ph&pos=all

For me the nail in the coffin is the cut to 14. I’d lean slightly to Ajayi if that weren’t the case as well. Cohen and Golladay are very nice pieces (personally I like Golladay but not Cohen so much but there are many Cohen triggers out there). 2.5 while a dart throw still have plenty of value and possibly could be flipped with another small piece for a 2019 1.

I do agree with much of what you’re saying and think it’s well laid out.

Personally I wouldn’t read much into that ypc, it’s pretty misleading as it was propped up by 2 long runs in his first 2 games in Philly. Throw those two games out or only look at double digit Carry games and he’s ~4.3/4.4 which is probably more consistent with where he’s going to be long term. The 70 carry sample size in Philly is too small for that to carry much weight at least for me.

I think the 5th RB data point is pretty misleading, as it all depends on where and what point in time you got the data. Those names could easily be Freeman, DJ/Coleman, Howard, Kamara/Hunt. Pretty nice list of valuable RBs there.

I’ve got Ajayi in the 1.8-1.12 value tier and if LB is gone it might move me up further though I doubt anyone is buying at that price.

[TheRookiePro]

This is one of the best offenses in football, so he should get lots of work in the RZ (esp since Blount doesn't appear to be returning).

Eagles will likely add another RB in the draft. Clement is a big favorite among the coaching staff, he's not going away on 3rd downs. I'm in a PPR league and Ajayi's disappointing season why I missed the playoffs by 1 win. Glad I traded him in November.