Trading Ajayi

[Johnny Canuck]

Personally I wouldn’t read much into that ypc, it’s pretty misleading as it was propped up by 2 long runs in his first 2 games in Philly. Throw those two games out or only look at double digit Carry games and he’s ~4.3/4.4 which is probably more consistent with where he’s going to be long term. The 70 carry sample size in Philly is too small for that to carry much weight at least for me.

I think the 5th RB data point is pretty misleading, as it all depends on where and what point in time you got the data. Those names could easily be Freeman, DJ/Coleman, Howard, Kamara/Hunt. Pretty nice list of valuable RBs there.

I’ve got Ajayi in the 1.8-1.12 value tier and if LB is gone it might move me up further though I doubt anyone is buying at that price.

The tricky thing with taking away long runs is if you took them away all RBs would look pretty suspect.

By simply taking away an RBs two longest runs of the season, their ypc becomes pretty low, here are some examples of the leagues top rushers:

Fournette 3.28 ypc
Hunt 4.40 ypc
Gurley 4.37 ypc
Bell 3.89 ypc
McCoy 3.69 ypc
Ingram 4.39 ypc
Gordon 3.50 ypc
Zeke 3.86 ypc

If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle. It's really pointless to speculate about these nonfactual situations. All RBs will get a long run here and there, and they count for fantasy points, so it's pointless for us to exclude them. Even the super stud Saquon Barkley isn't immune to propping up his rushing yardage with long runs, go check out his game log, and you'll see. It's not a bad thing.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/pl ... on-barkley

I can see the argument with the 5th RB drafted data, but this is simply a method to illustrate that rookie dynasty picks are a total crap shoot unless you get #1 or #2. Obvs they COULD be the RBs you listed, but they also COULD be the ones I listed. Everyone thinks they're the smartest guy in the room and feels great about the rookie they drafted in the summer, and unless you get LUCKY by next offseason that same player is on the ww or a cut down list. Rookie picks just aren't that valuable (esp in a keep 14 players format), but alas, us dynasty types love the thrill of potential to our own detriment. Either way, the 2.05 isn't all that valuable, it's a gamble at best.

Check out this article that will likely explain it better than I ever could...
http://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1905 ... raft-picks

[jeaton6]

Personally I wouldn’t read much into that ypc, it’s pretty misleading as it was propped up by 2 long runs in his first 2 games in Philly. Throw those two games out or only look at double digit Carry games and he’s ~4.3/4.4 which is probably more consistent with where he’s going to be long term. The 70 carry sample size in Philly is too small for that to carry much weight at least for me.

I think the 5th RB data point is pretty misleading, as it all depends on where and what point in time you got the data. Those names could easily be Freeman, DJ/Coleman, Howard, Kamara/Hunt. Pretty nice list of valuable RBs there.

I’ve got Ajayi in the 1.8-1.12 value tier and if LB is gone it might move me up further though I doubt anyone is buying at that price.

The tricky thing with taking away long runs is if you took them away all RBs would look pretty suspect.

By simply taking away an RBs two longest runs of the season, their ypc becomes pretty low, here are some examples of the leagues top rushers:

Fournette 3.28 ypc
Hunt 4.40 ypc
Gurley 4.37 ypc
Bell 3.89 ypc
McCoy 3.69 ypc
Ingram 4.39 ypc
Gordon 3.50 ypc
Zeke 3.86 ypc

If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle. It's really pointless to speculate about these nonfactual situations. All RBs will get a long run here and there, and they count for fantasy points, so it's pointless for us to exclude them. Even the super stud Saquon Barkley isn't immune to propping up his rushing yardage with long runs, go check out his game log, and you'll see. It's not a bad thing.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/pl ... on-barkley

I can see the argument with the 5th RB drafted data, but this is simply a method to illustrate that rookie dynasty picks are a total crap shoot unless you get #1 or #2. Obvs they COULD be the RBs you listed, but they also COULD be the ones I listed. Everyone thinks they're the smartest guy in the room and feels great about the rookie they drafted in the summer, and unless you get LUCKY by next offseason that same player is on the ww or a cut down list. Rookie picks just aren't that valuable (esp in a keep 14 players format), but alas, us dynasty types love the thrill of potential to our own detriment. Either way, the 2.05 isn't all that valuable, it's a gamble at best.

Check out this article that will likely explain it better than I ever could...
http://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1905 ... raft-picks

The point of excluding them is the sample size is too small and I believe misrepresents what you’ll get out of him going forward. They made up 117 out of his 408 rushing yards (29%) in Philly. I mean if that’s what you think you’re getting from him I don’t know what else to say. I think we’ve seen enough of him in Miami to know what he is and is not.

It seemed like showing those players as 5th RB drafted was being used to make your argument more credible. I’m simply pointing out that there were many backs in that range that have hit as well and are now considered studs.

In general my observation is many rookies drafted in rounds 1/2 of rookie dynasty drafts increase or maintain value after year 1. Even if you don’t think the 1.5 or 2.5 are all that valuable, others do and are typically willing to pay for them.

Ajayi is an acquired taste. Either you believe or you do not. Many bought into the hype after 2016 even though IIRC nearly 50% of his yards and TDS came in 4 games. He’s a high YAC runner (at least he was in 2016) which bodes well for him. He has limited involvement in the passing game, and Clement isn’t going away.

If Philly doesn’t draft anyone and LB is gone then I could see valuing him more where you suggest but not until that happens.