How To Value Future vs Current Draft Picks

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Oriorden
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How To Value Future vs Current Draft Picks

Postby Oriorden » Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:13 pm

I’m in a salary cap league with multi year deals. Rookies are on a 4 year deal at relatively cheap money.
I currently have picks 1.1, 1.3, and 1.8 this year. I’m taking Barkley at 1, but how do people value their current picks vs future? Is it worth trading away the 1.3 for two to three future firsts if there’s a good chance it’ll be another top 5 pick?
Just trying to get other points of view on the topic. Thanks!

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Goddard
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Re: How To Value Future vs Current Draft Picks

Postby Goddard » Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:40 pm

It really depends on your team and needs. If you're fairly set and don't need the rookie you'll be getting with the 1.03, it's probably good value to move the pick for three 1sts, especially when one of them will be early.

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moishetreats
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Re: How To Value Future vs Current Draft Picks

Postby moishetreats » Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:36 pm

It's more than that.

It depends how you USE rookie picks. Do you use them to re-draft and re-stock your team? Do you use them as ammo to acquire players when rookie picks' value is high and veterans' value is low? Do you use them as a safety net so that you'll never have too massive of a rebuild?

Put it this way -- which do you think is more valuable: the immediate rookie that you can take now or the flexibility of having a pick in the future? Your answer to that question will determine how you should use rookie picks.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

Oriorden
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Re: How To Value Future vs Current Draft Picks

Postby Oriorden » Thu Mar 15, 2018 5:38 pm

moishetreats wrote: Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:36 pm It's more than that.

It depends how you USE rookie picks. Do you use them to re-draft and re-stock your team? Do you use them as ammo to acquire players when rookie picks' value is high and veterans' value is low? Do you use them as a safety net so that you'll never have too massive of a rebuild?

Put it this way -- which do you think is more valuable: the immediate rookie that you can take now or the flexibility of having a pick in the future? Your answer to that question will determine how you should use rookie picks.
Excellent question. I think it depends on the rookie himself. Saquan is definitely someone I take now...but even Chubb gives me pause, so if I can get a haul for him then maybe worth having the flexibility of future picks. I did trade 1.4 and 2.5 for Julio and 1.7 for Allen Robinson, so having picks to trade for proven vets is also a nice luxury.


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