Any Thoughts on Will Fuller's 2018?

[skiptomybru]

From a potential buyer's perspective, my thoughts were that I'd jump on it for a 3rd (33 pick overall in my draft), but would not reach with a 2nd (17 overall). Sounds like his value is falling in between those spots. I'm intrigued.

Maybe think about it this way, if Fuller was in your draft this yr...where would you rank him? Then you'll know if you value him enough to move the 17th ov.

IMO 17th overall pick would be a steal. I highly doubt anyone drafted above 7th overall will match Fullers production, but you gotta come to your own conclusion. Good luck with the trade.

That makes sense. I guess I forget sometimes when discussing draft pick value, each round is different depending on the size of the league. So I'd say most here are valuing Fuller from the 12-20 range. I've been back and forth on acquiring either Fuller or Shepard. I think for me, it's which owner's price is right.

[skip]

From a potential buyer's perspective, my thoughts were that I'd jump on it for a 3rd (33 pick overall in my draft), but would not reach with a 2nd (17 overall). Sounds like his value is falling in between those spots. I'm intrigued.

Maybe think about it this way, if Fuller was in your draft this yr...where would you rank him? Then you'll know if you value him enough to move the 17th ov.

IMO 17th overall pick would be a steal. I highly doubt anyone drafted above 7th overall will match Fullers production, but you gotta come to your own conclusion. Good luck with the trade.

I will just add in here that I attempted to buy him last offseason prior to the blow up in 2017. I offered a future first-round pick at that time and was rejected. To suggest that he is worth somehow less now after having produced so well when we saw him this year just seems a little bit off to me.

[JJRules]

I've been shopping him but not getting much interest. My league is pretty dead after the NFL season ends tho, so it could just be that nobody gives a bleep in general. I'll be happy to hold onto him into next season if I don't get any takers.

[Johnny Canuck]

Another interesting fact I just came across, just thought I'd throw it out there. Fuller was WR 22 this year in ppg, and that was with Watson at QB for only 4 games.

Now for the funny part. If we look at Fullers split in games only with Watson. Fuller was the WR1 in ppg with 17.7 ppg. For Reference, Nuks ppg in games with Watson worked out to 15.2

Now if you want to chalk that up to Fullers crazy high TD rate, I can understand that. Butttttt Fuller averaged 70 yrds/game with Watson, while Nuk averaged 90 yrds/game with Watson.

TBH the more I dig into this, the more I really see Fuller as a decent to high end WR2 next season. But that's just me.

[FFFAN]

What's with the absurd 2nd and 3rd round valuations? This guy is a mid 1st all day.

[koalabear]

He's worth a mid-late first. Young, quick player, improving and has chemistry with Watson.

[skiptomybru]

What's with the absurd 2nd and 3rd round valuations? This guy is a mid 1st all day.

Idk I must be way off here obviously. I guess it's because like I mentioned earlier, I was looking into Sterling Shepard as well, and I was initially offered my 2.01 and 3.01 for him. That's a solid deal, but would you rather have Fuller of the two? Or would you just be happy about that deal for either, take it and run?

[BHerm24]

I am not very high on Fuller injuries are a big issue and he takes a clear backseat to hopkins with watson on number of targets with Watson

[Johnny Canuck]

I am not very high on Fuller injuries are a big issue and he takes a clear backseat to hopkins with watson on number of targets with Watson

If you really want to talk about targets, you should do a more in-depth analysis. Not all targets are created equal.

Let's compare the usage of Hopkins and Fuller in weeks 4, 5, 6 & 8, as these are the only weeks when both WRs are on the field with Watson under centre.

Target Volume
- Hopkins def commands most targets, almost double in fact. Hopkins had a total of 39 targets, while Fuller had 22.

Average Depth of Target (aDOT):
- Hopkins aDOT was 13.4, While Fuller had an aDOT of 21.7

Air Yards:
- Hopkins had 524 air yards (131 air yards/game), Fuller had 477 air yards (119.25 air yards/game).
- Funny thing is Fuller actually had more air yards than Hopkins on a game by game basis.
- Here's the break down for all you none believers.
- Week 4: Hopkins 97 air yards. Fuller 100 air yards.
- Week 5: Hopkins 221 air yards. Fuller 63 air yards.
- Week 6: Hopkins 34 air yards. Fuller 105 air yards.
- Week 8: Hopkins 172 air yards. Fuller 209 air yards.

Red Zone Targets:
- Hopkins had 5 redzone targets over those 4 games, while Fuller had 4 redzone targets.

Summary
Hopkins receives more overall volume, but these are more short and intermediate routes. Hopkins also has a higher potential to become a target/yardage vacuum in the odd game as evident by week 5. BUT Fullers targets are almost twice the depth that Hopkins receives which somewhat makes up for the decrease in overall volume. Also Fuller and Hopkins are almost equal in the opportunity available to them evident by the weekly air yard breakdown (aside from the odd Hopkins blow up game). Redzone targets are almost equal as well, with Hopkins slightly edging Fuller by 1 target.

Now everyone agrees that Hopkins is a stud correct? So if Fuller's numbers are very similar to Hopkins when playing with their longterm QB, what would that make Fuller...maybe not a top 5 stud, but a very good WR (12-20) is easily within his grasp.

[skip]

Idk I must be way off here obviously. I guess it's because like I mentioned earlier, I was looking into Sterling Shepard as well, and I was initially offered my 2.01 and 3.01 for him. That's a solid deal, but would you rather have Fuller of the two? Or would you just be happy about that deal for either, take it and run?

I think that's a good price to be able to obtain either of them.

[nosferatu]

He's worth a mid to late first, anything cheaper is a deal.

The guy is a young talented WR and is going to be paired with Watson for a long time. Obvs Watson knows how to get the best out of Fuller based on their limited sample size, and NTM B'OB loves Fuller (he tried to recruit him in NCAA then drafted him in the 1st rd in the NFL).

Feels like it's the cool thing to hate on Fuller, just like it was with Adams a while ago. It wouldn't really be all that shocking to see Fuller blow up like Adams and become a top 15-20 WR next yr.

Interesting thread. I've been debating trading my 2.07 for Cole, which the consensus seems to be a pretty even deal. If I could get Fuller for 2.07, boy would I be much happier. Really illustrates for me that Fuller may be a good buy low candidate. Sure he has had injury/drop issues, but his connection with Watson was very apparent last year. I bought Adams last year against everyone's guidance, this really does feel similar.

[darewood11]

Rather have fuller or Marvin jones? Asking for a friend

[darewood11]

?

[skiptomybru]

?

Don't know enough about either of them. I would think Marvin Jones is the safer pick right now, so I'd lean towards him. Unless age is something you're valuing a lot. Still, Fuller needs more time to prove he's consistent. That's why I think he's a solid buy low player right now.

[Johnny Canuck]

Rather have fuller or Marvin jones? Asking for a friend

For your squad in question that has Marvin, I think I'd rather have Fuller. That's simply because that team looks like it is in the midst of a rebuild to a degree, so I'd rather have the youth on my side. That said, if you're taking about how their values stack up in the minds of the dynasty community, I would hedge that you could get something on top of Fuller for Jones in a trade.

I would shoot for Jones + 2nd for Fuller + 1st...might work, might not, but I think that Fuller is being mistakenly undervalued at the moment, and you would be wise to grab him. Just make sure you try and get Fuller+ for Jones, before moving to a strt swap.