Evans/Gio for 1.02/1.07/2.02/2.03 *** UPDATED

[HughHoney]

Mike Evans has put up 1 elite season in 4 years. In 2014, 2015, 2017 he was a WR2. 2015 he was WR24. I do think he’ll be a top 12-15 WR for the next 5 years but perhaps he isn’t going to be the perennial top 5 guy we thought he would be.

Yep. Many still see Evans as a top 5 WR and top 10 dynasty asset based on potential. Others of us see him as a top 12 WR and top 20-25 dynasty asset based on performance/weaknesses.

Player A's First 4 seasons.
52-802-2
76-1210-6
111-1521-11
78-954-4

Player B's First 4 seasons
68-1051-12
74-1206-3
96-1321-12
71-1001-5

A = Hopkins, B = Evans

Performance/Weakness? Evans is 24 years old, already has 4 1,000 yard seasons in the NFL, and is a size/speed freak. I don't think their are many WRs outside of OBJ that have produced more in their first 4 seasons.

If you look Hopkins and Evans have pretty similar career paths, both steadily improved through their first 3 years and each was a high end WR1 in their 3rd year. Then both had QB/offense issues their forth year and had down years. The people who are selling low on Evans after a down year are going to regret it just as much as the people who sold Hopkins low last off-season.

Saying that a player is a WR2 because he hasn't produced top 5 numbers more than once in the beginning of his career is very shortsighted. Especially for a player who came into the league as young as Evans was and has visibly demonstrated improvement. Many people consider Hopkins a top 2/3 dynasty asset now (which he is). But you could argue he's only had 2 WR1 seasons in his first 5 years. The recency bias is insane.

Hopkins showed very significant improvement each year over his first 3 years and then had a down year much attributable to awful QB play. Evans had a good first year and then regressed his second year plagued with drops and finished as WR24, his lowest output to date. His third year was elite but then another year similar to his second. To me his career path and especially his game are not similar to Hopkins’. I do think Evans will be a solid top 10-15 WR and I would not be looking to sell low if I still owned him.

[BelichekYourSelf]

Yep. Many still see Evans as a top 5 WR and top 10 dynasty asset based on potential. Others of us see him as a top 12 WR and top 20-25 dynasty asset based on performance/weaknesses.

Player A's First 4 seasons.
52-802-2
76-1210-6
111-1521-11
78-954-4

Player B's First 4 seasons
68-1051-12
74-1206-3
96-1321-12
71-1001-5

A = Hopkins, B = Evans

Hopkins showed very significant improvement each year over his first 3 years and then had a down year much attributable to awful QB play. Evans had a good first year and then regressed his second year plagued with drops and finished as WR24, his lowest output to date. His third year was elite but then another year similar to his second. To me his career path and especially his game are not similar to Hopkins’. I do think Evans will be a solid top 10-15 WR and I would not be looking to sell low if I still owned him.

I don't know how you can say Evans regressed with he had 6 more catches and 150 more yards from his first to second year. He did have 9 less TDs but they are pretty random from year to year. Drops were an issue but he has corrected that for the most part since. If you look Hopkins' and Evans' 2nd years were almost exactly the same. (74-1206-3 to 76-1210-6) The only reason Hopkins improved more was because his first year was much worse so he had a lower bar. Plus Evans was missing Jameis for 25% of the season and that whole offense was much worse.

I still expect Evans to be a top 5 WR more often than not. Especially as the Julio/AJG/AB group ages. OBJ/Hopkins/Evans will be the new big 3 going forward.

[HughHoney]

Player A's First 4 seasons.
52-802-2
76-1210-6
111-1521-11
78-954-4

Player B's First 4 seasons
68-1051-12
74-1206-3
96-1321-12
71-1001-5

A = Hopkins, B = Evans

Hopkins showed very significant improvement each year over his first 3 years and then had a down year much attributable to awful QB play. Evans had a good first year and then regressed his second year plagued with drops and finished as WR24, his lowest output to date. His third year was elite but then another year similar to his second. To me his career path and especially his game are not similar to Hopkins’. I do think Evans will be a solid top 10-15 WR and I would not be looking to sell low if I still owned him.

I don't know how you can say Evans regressed with he had 6 more catches and 150 more yards from his first to second year. He did have 9 less TDs but they are pretty random from year to year. Drops were an issue but he has corrected that for the most part since. If you look Hopkins' and Evans' 2nd years were almost exactly the same. (74-1206-3 to 76-1210-6) The only reason Hopkins improved more was because his first year was much worse so he had a lower bar. Plus Evans was missing Jameis for 25% of the season and that whole offense was much worse.

I still expect Evans to be a top 5 WR more often than not. Especially as the Julio/AJG/AB group ages. OBJ/Hopkins/Evans will be the new big 3 going forward.

I agree that TDs fluctuate but we are talking FF and that should be Evans strength. He is big and long and should be a great red zone target. Hands and getting separation are not a strength for him and he’s not in the same zip code as OBJ and Hopkins there. And hard to blame QB situation when you compare it to the scrubs that have been throwing the ball to Hopkins. And going forward Watson is so much better than Winston. Evans is good and I’d be glad to own him but not at a top 5 WR or top 15 dynasty asset price tag.

[Phaded]

Evans side pretty easily for the picks.

His haters are hilarious because these are the same people who think Hopkins is close to being the top WR.
I think Evans is actually the better WR - people always talk about Hopkins having a poor QB situation but can you really say Evans has a much better situation?

Evans is among the top young WRs in the league - bottom line.

[HughHoney]

Evans side pretty easily for the picks.

His haters are hilarious because these are the same people who think Hopkins is close to being the top WR.
I think Evans is actually the better WR - people always talk about Hopkins having a poor QB situation but can you really say Evans has a much better situation?

Evans is among the top young WRs in the league - bottom line.

I’m no Winston fan at all and don’t get the love he gets. But compared to Savage, Osweiler, Yates, Hoyer, Mallet, and Weeden....then yeah that’s a better situation.

[pokerplayer1000]

I think I may have just been too in love with the Draft Picks...Either way I accepted the trade. Part of me wanted to potentially hold out and see if I could get more, or give up less to get him, but in reality the difference between an early 2nd and an early 3rd shouldn't make a or break a deal like this.

I feel like my team is in a really good position considering I sold off everything and still have plenty of picks for the draft plus a solid, young core of Mariota, LF, Mixon, Barkley, Evans, Nuk, Ertz, Henry.

Thanks for all the help and convincing me I was being dumb