2018 1.09 for Robert Woods?

[Space Cowboy]

I'd like to see it again for one more year before considering throwing around a premium pick.

[McCloskey22]

to channel my inner Walter Sobchek (Big Lebowski) - HAS THE WHOLE WORLD GONE CRAZY?!


This was Robert Woods 5th season. His 781 yards were a career best. 781 yards and 5 TD's...

You're going to take THAT over the opportunity to draft 9th, which in the past few years alone has netted the David Johnsons, Michael Thomas', Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Jordan Howards of the world?

Why would you take a WR3 over a 1st round pick?

[ttalbs]

to channel my inner Walter Sobchek (Big Lebowski) - HAS THE WHOLE WORLD GONE CRAZY?!


This was Robert Woods 5th season. His 781 yards were a career best. 781 yards and 5 TD's...

You're going to take THAT over the opportunity to draft 9th, which in the past few years alone has netted the David Johnsons, Michael Thomas', Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Jordan Howards of the world?

Why would you take a WR3 over a 1st round pick?

Well you are assuming that everyone would make the right choice with the 1.09. I'd say you have a 50% chance of drafting a complete bust with that pick. For all the guys you listed, there are just as many if not more that busted. 2014 and 2017 were very good drafts for this range. 2012, 2013, 2015 (sorta), and 2016 were not. (I'm aware there are always a few guys available at this spot in each of these drafts. Jeffery, Allen, Howard, DJ i.e. There are way more that busted though)

Depends on what you are looking for. Do you want to swing for the fences and try to get a stud at 1.09? Probably a 25% chance. Or do you want to take the safe route,? A WR2-3 for a few years in his prime.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

to channel my inner Walter Sobchek (Big Lebowski) - HAS THE WHOLE WORLD GONE CRAZY?!

This was Robert Woods 5th season. His 781 yards were a career best. 781 yards and 5 TD's...

You're going to take THAT over the opportunity to draft 9th, which in the past few years alone has netted the David Johnsons, Michael Thomas', Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Jordan Howards of the world?

Why would you take a WR3 over a 1st round pick?

Alternatively...

This was Robert Woods' first season with Sean McVay, and he already had 56/781/5 despite playing only 12 games, which extrapolated out to 16 games would be 75/1,041/7. It's very possible that Woods could improve on these numbers in 2018, especially if Sammy Watkins is gone.

Also, I could argue that I would take those WR2 numbers over the 1.09, which over the last three rookie drafts could very well have been Samaje Perine, Kenneth Dixon, and Breshad Perriman looking at rookie ADP.

Ultimately, I think a Woods for the 1.09 is a very fair trade, and arguments can be made for both sides.

[skip]

to channel my inner Walter Sobchek (Big Lebowski) - HAS THE WHOLE WORLD GONE CRAZY?!


This was Robert Woods 5th season. His 781 yards were a career best. 781 yards and 5 TD's...

You're going to take THAT over the opportunity to draft 9th, which in the past few years alone has netted the David Johnsons, Michael Thomas', Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Jordan Howards of the world?

Why would you take a WR3 over a 1st round pick?

Or Agholor, Funchess, Ross, Perriman, DGB, Abdullah, Ebron, Hunter, Lattimore... Go look at the 2012 class if you really want your stomach to turn. Those are also numbers thru 13 games, not 16. His ppg put him 15th in the league this season ahead of some very good company.

[topher]

I would not pay the 1.09 for Woods, but I certainly would sell.

I think he had a career year but has reached his cap. I see him as a perennial 600 yard guy, good depth, but I'm not paying a 1st rounder for depth.

[Space Cowboy]

He has some Keenan Allen to him, but still no thanks for now.

[M-Dub]

I would probably lean towards the 1.09, but I don’t think it’s an obscene asking price for Woods. Really comes down to team composition and, as others have mentioned, your personal level of risk aversion.

[ArrylT]

This is one of those choices that depends on what your risk factor is.

Risk of Woods repeating/improving vs. risk of rookie at pick panning out.

Obviously the later you wait the more information (ie does Watkins stay) you get and the more value rookie picks tend to accrue, so my recommendation would be to hold off rather than to buy Woods atm.

But in Woods defence this was his first year in a more pass friendly offence, and for much of the previous years he was basically stuck behind Watkins and had Bills offensive scheme versus ahead of Watkins (in targets) and McVay scheme. And while the 2013 class may not have the glamour of the 14 or 17 class, he was still a 2nd round pick and has produced consistently especially in comparison to some of the other 2013 WRs such as Patterson, Austin, Hunter, T. Williams and Dobson. And has been rewarded as such with a decent contract that is likely to keep him in LA for the time being

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles- ... ods-12322/

[hjernazian]

to channel my inner Walter Sobchek (Big Lebowski) - HAS THE WHOLE WORLD GONE CRAZY?!


This was Robert Woods 5th season. His 781 yards were a career best. 781 yards and 5 TD's...

You're going to take THAT over the opportunity to draft 9th, which in the past few years alone has netted the David Johnsons, Michael Thomas', Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Jordan Howards of the world?

Why would you take a WR3 over a 1st round pick?

I agree with you, but I think it's because you and I like to gamble. Many don't. And I don't have a problem with that. I've traded away my firsts for guys like Landry, Freeman, Hilton, etc. and still don't regret it. with that said, Woods is NOT Hilton, Freeman or Landry. I trade firsts for studs, not for 1/5 year blow-ups, which Woods clearly is (imo).

[FiremanEd]

Yeah, I’m unable to see why people are suddenly all over Woods. He still doesn’t have any special traits. He definitely had an improved season in a high powered offense, but it was hardly anything special, and there is a lot of risk that’s the cap. Kupp isn’t going away, and they are similar. The TE position could get more action. I don’t know what happens with Sammy, but I don’t think a team settles for Woods/Kupp as the top two options, and that other option should see more than Sammy did. Overall, he screams sell high if he’s a 1.09 Value. He’s a second round pick worth for me who has a WR4 floor and WR2 ceiling that i would only want on my roster as a WR4 as far as depth chart is concerned.

I definitely find it interesting people are fine with Woods for 1.09 but prefer 1.11 to Dez. I see a big difference in ceiling, and frankly, talent, with a similar floor.

[hjernazian]

Yeah, I’m unable to see why people are suddenly all over Woods. He still doesn’t have any special traits. He definitely had an improved season in a high powered offense, but it was hardly anything special, and there is a lot of risk that’s the cap. Kupp isn’t going away, and they are similar. The TE position could get more action. I don’t know what happens with Sammy, but I don’t think a team settles for Woods/Kupp as the top two options, and that other option should see more than Sammy did. Overall, he screams sell high if he’s a 1.09 Value. He’s a second round pick worth for me who has a WR4 floor and WR2 ceiling that i would only want on my roster as a WR4 as far as depth chart is concerned.

I definitely find it interesting people are fine with Woods for 1.09 but prefer 1.11 to Dez. I see a big difference in ceiling, and frankly, talent, with a similar floor.

What’s even more intriguing is Woods seems to be valued more than Sammy. Way I see it, Sammy has a disappointing year but still scored 8 TDs. He was also in double digit fantasy points all but one week second half of the year. We can safely assume this is his floor as either one of two things will happen 1- he has a full offseason and camp with Goff leading to improvement or 2- going to a new team where he is utilized better. And bad teams aren’t necessarily bad for his stock - he did tear it up when healthy with Tyrod who imo stinks.

Currently I have guys offering me 3rd rounders for Sammy which makes zero sense.

[akbfrosty]

I definitely find it interesting people are fine with Woods for 1.09 but prefer 1.11 to Dez. I see a big difference in ceiling, and frankly, talent, with a similar floor.

I wonder what that diagram of people would look like. I'm likely taking Woods over 1.09 and 1.11 over Dez, but I'd wonder if more people would take Dez over Woods.

Woods is coming off a year in which he averaged 13.8 PPG (PPR) in his new situation after being with the Bills. Are we really going to judge him that harshly when he was on a team that mustered 3500 passing yards once in his 4 year career there, while simultaneously trading up to draft Sammy Watkins in his 2nd year? His numbers, all things considered, were actually pretty decent for the situation. I would agree, though, there are a lot of moving parts with the Rams this offseason that could negatively affect Woods.

In Dez's new situation (Zeke and Dak), he's averaged 14.0 and 11.8 PPG; there's room to improve if he and Dak can become more efficient (69 receptions on 132 targets). I'm not sure the ceiling is actually 2014 Dez, though. That's not what this offense has looked like for the past 2 years.

So a 26 year old WR, that was considered mediocre, coming off of his best year in the first year of a new situation or a 29 year old WR, that was once elite, coming of one of his worst years in the 2nd year of his new situation? I can see merit to both sides.

Currently I have guys offering me 3rd rounders for Sammy which makes zero sense.

If you're referencing your signature, I'll guess this has a lot more to do with Sammy costing $33 as opposed to his "regular" dynasty value.

[hjernazian]

I definitely find it interesting people are fine with Woods for 1.09 but prefer 1.11 to Dez. I see a big difference in ceiling, and frankly, talent, with a similar floor.

I wonder what that diagram of people would look like. I'm likely taking Woods over 1.09 and 1.11 over Dez, but I'd wonder if more people would take Dez over Woods.

Woods is coming off a year in which he averaged 13.8 PPG (PPR) in his new situation after being with the Bills. Are we really going to judge him that harshly when he was on a team that mustered 3500 passing yards once in his 4 year career there, while simultaneously trading up to draft Sammy Watkins in his 2nd year? His numbers, all things considered, were actually pretty decent for the situation. I would agree, though, there are a lot of moving parts with the Rams this offseason that could negatively affect Woods.

In Dez's new situation (Zeke and Dak), he's averaged 14.0 and 11.8 PPG; there's room to improve if he and Dak can become more efficient (69 receptions on 132 targets). I'm not sure the ceiling is actually 2014 Dez, though. That's not what this offense has looked like for the past 2 years.

So a 26 year old WR, that was considered mediocre, coming off of his best year in the first year of a new situation or a 29 year old WR, that was once elite, coming of one of his worst years in the 2nd year of his new situation? I can see merit to both sides.

Currently I have guys offering me 3rd rounders for Sammy which makes zero sense.

If you're referencing your signature, I'll guess this has a lot more to do with Sammy costing $33 as opposed to his "regular" dynasty value.

Yes in my sig. in our league though we over 20 guys that cost as much as Sammy if not more. Guys like Zeeke DJ Hopkins Bell etc all run in the 55-80 dollar range, so he’s actually a value at that price if he produces like a solid WR2, which he wasn’t that far from second half of the season.