Offers you've seen or received for the 2018 1.01

[AJ1]

deal completed, ffpc

Gave Mixon, 1.4, Ebron, 5.3
for
1.1,2.11

[Farley]

Fair and good response. And you are right to think that his production may be unsustainable. However, the dude ended the year as the overall RB3 in PPR, with Hunt as the RB4. Kamara scored only 23 fantasy points less than LeVeon. In a time share? wow. So if we anticipate some regression, it's fair to assume we're looking at two top 10-15 backs for next year, super young, with now the proven ceiling. Also, it's not a lock that Ingram stays, but if NOS were smart they'd keep him as this is the best example of a time-share gone incredibly right as I can think of.

It's not a terrible trade by far, and you could use help at WR (like you mentioned). Sutton would be very nice and see him dropping if the destination isn't desirable, with him eventually performing, with me trying to steal the pick that will acquire him.

Yikes.... You are hoping 1.01 1.02 1.03 become those players. If Barkley lands in some God awful place like Cleveland and forever stuck in the muck you will wish you had one of those players back. Not say Barkley can't be the next Adrian Peterson... but he could also be the next Ki-Jana Carter

And Kareem Hunt could be the next Jay Ajayi. And Alvin Kamara could be the next Giovanni Bernard.

I think the trade is a toss-up. The biggest mistake fantasy football owners make is assuming that 2nd year guys have exponentially less risk than rookies. There are about a zillion running backs that looked awesome as a rookie and then fell flat on their face in year 2. The odds are actually surprisingly high, historically, especially when talking about guys outside the 1st half of the 1st round of the NFL draft like Hunt/Kamara.

THIS!

Highly-touted and properly scouted rookies are not way riskier than second year players.

I actually love this trade for you. Would have no problem moving Kamara and Hunt for the 1, 2, and 3 this year.

[whodunnit]

It's not a bad offer. But the only sure bet there is Henry, not surprised.

You think Henry is a sure thing?

what's your opinion on Henry - would love to hear it, honestly. I nearly secured multiple trades for him all season but it all fell apart. With everything I'm reading now - that he'll never be a workhorse, they'll add a pass catcher, they are high on the coaching staff that can't coach, wheather it's demarco or someone else, it's setting up for a time share - seems like his stock is low. I also looked at the guy as a potential RB1 when Demarco is gone, but it doesn't seem to be looking that way. Thoughts?

I mean, I don't think he's a bad asset to own, or that he will be terrible, I just haven't seen much from him that screams 'sure thing'. He looks like a very average back to me.

[whodunnit]

was just offered Aaron Rodgers for my 1.01/1.10/1.12 in a league that's transitioning to superflex this offseason. I earned the 1.01 this year and have more holes at RB/WR than anywhere else on my roster.

[hjernazian]

All good points and that is why I am nervous. But - and I may be in the minority here - I don’t view Kamara’s production as sustainable. He is averaging 6ypc which likely comes down a bit and I don’t think he suddenly increases his touches massively as Ingram is going nowhere. He is obviously a special talent but I am hoping that I’m selling at the top of the market with him.

Essentially I think that both Kamara and Hunt are not quite elite talents in perfect situations. But situations change and I prefer talent in the long term so I’ll take the elite talent of Saquon plus two near-elite talents. Plus I could do with a bit more at WR so I’m hoping that rookie fever means I can flip 1.02 and/or 1.03 with something else closer to draft time for a stud, as the perceived value of the picks likely increase.

Having said all that, it’s entirely possible that this looks like a terrible trade in a year’s time - but that’s fantasy!!

Fair and good response. And you are right to think that his production may be unsustainable. However, the dude ended the year as the overall RB3 in PPR, with Hunt as the RB4. Kamara scored only 23 fantasy points less than LeVeon. In a time share? wow. So if we anticipate some regression, it's fair to assume we're looking at two top 10-15 backs for next year, super young, with now the proven ceiling. Also, it's not a lock that Ingram stays, but if NOS were smart they'd keep him as this is the best example of a time-share gone incredibly right as I can think of.

It's not a terrible trade by far, and you could use help at WR (like you mentioned). Sutton would be very nice and see him dropping if the destination isn't desirable, with him eventually performing, with me trying to steal the pick that will acquire him.

Yikes.... You are hoping 1.01 1.02 1.03 become those players. If Barkley lands in some God awful place like Cleveland and forever stuck in the muck you will wish you had one of those players back. Not say Barkley can't be the next Adrian Peterson... but he could also be the next Ki-Jana Carter

Exactly my point. Repeat after me: overall fantasy RB3 and RB4 in their rookie years! Saquon is great, but if the dude ends up on the Browns or in a bleep situation (or even maybe in a great one), it's far fetched to assume he'll duplicate that success.

[hjernazian]

what's your opinion on Henry - would love to hear it, honestly. I nearly secured multiple trades for him all season but it all fell apart. With everything I'm reading now - that he'll never be a workhorse, they'll add a pass catcher, they are high on the coaching staff that can't coach, wheather it's demarco or someone else, it's setting up for a time share - seems like his stock is low. I also looked at the guy as a potential RB1 when Demarco is gone, but it doesn't seem to be looking that way. Thoughts?

where did you hear that? everything ive ever read pointed to them cutting Dermarco this offseason for no penalty and moving forward with Henry as a 3-down back (which he is) i wouldnt be surprised if they let the coaching staff go this offseason depending on what they do in the playoffs. i think that team has MUCH more urgent needs than a pass catcher in the bacfield, primarily on defense and another WR and some OL help.

Mariota has not been remotely impressive in the current scheme and i have to assume the GM (or owner) see this too and want him to live up to his lofty draft pedigree, which he wont in an "exotic smashmouth"

thoughts? i personally am trying to buy low on him for Team 1 below, and wouldnt sell him for less than 1.1 where i do own him (albeit i would add to him to get it)

You are right about the team needs, and I don't disagree, but a pass-catcher isn't had by the draft alone. They could trade for him, or pick up (worst case for dynasty owners) another back that can snatch 10 or so carries for him. Where I read it - Rotoviz, other than DLF, it is my 1b for analysis. This article sums it up: http://rotoviz.com/2018/01/the-wrong-re ... l-targets/

I've been a Henry fan for quite some time and almost acquired him from an impatient owner... several times. But the analysis makes a good point (and by no means is this fact, just educated and founded opinion) that he may never be your LF, Bell, Zeeke, etc. caliber every-down back, and if the coaching situation continues on the Titans, will be wrongfully used and/or in a potential committee, even if it's not with Demarco.

I know that's the last thing a Henry owner wants to hear, and I'm a big fan, but I def am buying into this as a real possibility.

[hjernazian]

What do you guys think of this package for 1.1?

1.08
1.16
2019 1st
Alex Collins
Tyrell Williams

i cant imagine that would ever get accepted - i would counter asking for Fournette.

Really? I kind of like it. two young players, and 3 first rounders? sign me up.

[hjernazian]

What do you guys think of this package for 1.1?

1.08
1.16
2019 1st
Alex Collins
Tyrell Williams

if i'm on the 1.1 side i take it and don't look back.

[hjernazian]

Fair and good response. And you are right to think that his production may be unsustainable. However, the dude ended the year as the overall RB3 in PPR, with Hunt as the RB4. Kamara scored only 23 fantasy points less than LeVeon. In a time share? wow. So if we anticipate some regression, it's fair to assume we're looking at two top 10-15 backs for next year, super young, with now the proven ceiling. Also, it's not a lock that Ingram stays, but if NOS were smart they'd keep him as this is the best example of a time-share gone incredibly right as I can think of.

It's not a terrible trade by far, and you could use help at WR (like you mentioned). Sutton would be very nice and see him dropping if the destination isn't desirable, with him eventually performing, with me trying to steal the pick that will acquire him.

Yikes.... You are hoping 1.01 1.02 1.03 become those players. If Barkley lands in some God awful place like Cleveland and forever stuck in the muck you will wish you had one of those players back. Not say Barkley can't be the next Adrian Peterson... but he could also be the next Ki-Jana Carter

And Kareem Hunt could be the next Jay Ajayi. And Alvin Kamara could be the next Giovanni Bernard.

I think the trade is a toss-up. The biggest mistake fantasy football owners make is assuming that 2nd year guys have exponentially less risk than rookies. There are about a zillion running backs that looked awesome as a rookie and then fell flat on their face in year 2. The odds are actually surprisingly high, historically, especially when talking about guys outside the 1st half of the 1st round of the NFL draft like Hunt/Kamara.

Agreed, but isn't the risk of a regression in those two aforementioned players substantially less than a college athlete that's completely unproven at a professional level? the definition of a bust. you are gambling less with a proven track record - albeit for one year, than a athlete that adjusts to professional level play from college.

[hjernazian]

deal completed, ffpc

Gave Mixon, 1.4, Ebron, 5.3
for
1.1,2.11

that's a great trade man (for you). I'm really high on Mixon, but would rather have Saquon.

[Peach]

Update on my Kamara/Hunt for 1.01, 1.02, 1.03 trade. Just flipped the 1.03 plus 2.12 for Dalvin Cook. So will end up with Saquon and Cook as my lead RBs plus A.N. Other tbc at 1.02. More than happy with that, I think it’s an upgrade as I still prefer Cook’s long term outlook to Hunt and Kamara’s.

[mmass]

Update on my Kamara/Hunt for 1.01, 1.02, 1.03 trade. Just flipped the 1.03 plus 2.12 for Dalvin Cook. So will end up with Saquon and Cook as my lead RBs plus A.N. Other tbc at 1.02. More than happy with that, I think it’s an upgrade as I still prefer Cook’s long term outlook to Hunt and Kamara’s.

Though I hated the 1st trade... there is nothing not to love about the second trade.

[Brutus]

In a bubble...

CMC and 1.03 for 1.01.

Thoughts?

[Posternutbag4]

I saw a 1.01 for 1.05, Njoku, and Shepard.

[Vcize]

Yikes.... You are hoping 1.01 1.02 1.03 become those players. If Barkley lands in some God awful place like Cleveland and forever stuck in the muck you will wish you had one of those players back. Not say Barkley can't be the next Adrian Peterson... but he could also be the next Ki-Jana Carter

And Kareem Hunt could be the next Jay Ajayi. And Alvin Kamara could be the next Giovanni Bernard.

I think the trade is a toss-up. The biggest mistake fantasy football owners make is assuming that 2nd year guys have exponentially less risk than rookies. There are about a zillion running backs that looked awesome as a rookie and then fell flat on their face in year 2. The odds are actually surprisingly high, historically, especially when talking about guys outside the 1st half of the 1st round of the NFL draft like Hunt/Kamara.

Agreed, but isn't the risk of a regression in those two aforementioned players substantially less than a college athlete that's completely unproven at a professional level? the definition of a bust. you are gambling less with a proven track record - albeit for one year, than a athlete that adjusts to professional level play from college.

Maybe if you're comparing it to the bust rate of all rookies. But saquon isn't just another name amongst all rookies.

I haven't run the data, but I would bet that rookie RBs taken early in the 1st of the nfl draft (like Barkley) have a much lower bust rate than 2nd year guys who weren't early 1st round picks but had a really good rookie season (a la Hunt/Kamara).

Here are the guys who out up 1000+ yards as a rookie in the last 15 years despite being not picked in the top 15 of the NFL draft.

Alfred morris
Doug Martin
Steve Slaton
Matt Forte
Chris Johnson
Eddie Lacy
Kevin Jones
Julius Jones
Joseph Addai
Lagarrett Blount
Domanick Davis
Jeremy Hill
Giovanni Bernard
Jordan Howard
Zac Stacy

Now there are surely some good names up there but it is hardly a list of guys that I would call safe. Yet every one of these guys was once labeled as having "proven it on the field", as if doing that one time is some big thing (the results show us it's not). Guys like KJ, Hill, Bernard, Davis, Lacy, Slaton, Martin, etc all once held value similar to what Hunt/Kamara are now because they had "proven it".

Here is a list of all rookie RBs taken in the top 15 of the nfl draft over that same period.

Ezekiel Elliot
Todd Gurley
Melvin Gordon
Trent Richardson
Ryan Mathews
CJ spiller
Knowshon Moreno
Darren McFadden
Jonathan Stewart
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
Reggie Bush
Ronnie Brown
Cadillac Williams
Cedric Benson

Now that list is pretty far from bullet proof as well, but as a whole I'd still take the latter list to the former. More major studs (Zeke/Gurley/Peterson/Lynch vs Forte/Johnson) and slightly fewer guys who just totally face planted.

Regardless, there definitely doesn't seem to be anything in there to indicate that the guys who were 1 year "proven" were any safer or less risky than the guys who were drafted in the range that Barkley/Guice are likely to be prior to having ever stepped on an NFL field.