Orleans Darkwa vs Dede Westbrook: what's their respective trade value?

[ninotoreS]

I'm thinking about trying to buy Westbrook, and I'm thinking about trying to sell Darkwa to do it.

My main dilemma is that I'm still very uncertain on how I should be valuing Darkwa. He has a favorable schedule until Week 15, and I wonder if I should hold him to see if his value ascends further. I do feel confident he's NY's best runner (Perkins is bad and Gallman is JAG all over), but will the O-line perform well enough to let him climb in fantasy value?

As for Westbrook, he's a total coin-flip in my eyes. Matt Harmon's analysis trashed him, PFF's scouting report loves his potential, he tore up preseason but only faced press-coverage on one of those catches, his character 'grade' seems to be strewn with red-flags (it's not just the DV allegation from a few years ago, it's how he interviewed at the Combine; several teams took him right off their board after interviewing him), and the Jaguars could be looking for a decent QB for years, plus Robinson has the #1 WR job locked up in Jax long-term, right? Westbrook has a lot working against him... but he also has an attractive schedule through Week 15, once he gets off IR. Could end up a hot guy to flip going into the offseason.

[TheGunSlinger]

To me you have to take the potential of Dede. Darkwa is a nice back, but on a team that has 0 WRs they are going to try to rely on that running game, but sadly, will have to use the passing game to even catch up in games. Dede, although stuck with Bortles, may be a main WR for the team as Hurns/Lee have done nothing this year. Take the potential

[lukkynumber13]

I couldn't get a 3rd out of Darkwa, so if you can get Westbrook for him that's pretty solid value

[ninotoreS]

So then, are you two suggesting a straight swap? An offer of Darkwa directly for Westbrook?

I couldn't get a 3rd out of Darkwa, so if you can get Westbrook for him that's pretty solid value

That could change if Darkwa has another good game tomorrow, which is a more plausible possibility than I think most realize.

Seattle's run-D is quietly 26th in DVOA after Hyde, Murray, and Henry trashed them. I don't think Seattle's run-D will stay at that rank for too long, but the point here is that their run-D is not as tough as it's been in the past. Darkwa could surprise us again statistically if he gets another 20 carries. If Darkwa rips high-profile defenses like Denver and Seattle back-to-back while getting 20+ touches (Perkins is confirmed out again, btw), Darkwa's sell-high window could get suddenly absurd.

[diamonddave]

So then, are you two suggesting a straight swap? An offer of Darkwa directly for Westbrook?

I couldn't get a 3rd out of Darkwa, so if you can get Westbrook for him that's pretty solid value

That could change if Darkwa has another good game tomorrow, which is a more plausible possibility than I think most realize.

Seattle's run-D is quietly 26th in DVOA after Hyde, Murray, and Henry trashed them. I don't think Seattle's run-D will stay at that rank for too long, but the point here is that their run-D is not as tough as it's been in the past. Darkwa could surprise us again statistically if he gets another 20 carries. If Darkwa rips high-profile defenses like Denver and Seattle back-to-back while getting 20+ touches (Perkins is confirmed out again, btw), Darkwa's sell-high window could get suddenly absurd.

Darkwa has a good matchup tomorrow and he'll probably get his chance to eat while he's getting fed - but I'd be pretty surprised if he can actually get to 20 carries given what projects as negative game flow for the Giants. Even if he plays well tomorrow, I doubt that many people would suddenly think, "Wow, Orleans Darkwa!" I think they'll think he had a good game and chalk it up to Seattle's poor run defense.

[ninotoreS]

Will there be negative game-flow for NY's RBs?

Seattle's offense hasn't been great this year. Wilson's thrown for less than 200 yards in 3 of 5 games, and their rushing-offense hasn't been anything special. I don't know that they'll actually dominate time of possession, or score enough, fast enough to force NY to throw to their non-existent WR corps, instead of run.

I also don't feel like it's actually widely realized yet that Seattle's run-D has been so-so this season.

[diamonddave]

Will there be negative game-flow for NY's RBs?

Seattle's offense hasn't been great this year. Wilson's thrown for less than 200 yards in 3 of 5 games, and their rushing-offense hasn't been anything special. I don't know that they'll actually dominate time of possession, or score enough, fast enough to force NY to throw to their non-existent WR corps, instead of run.

I also don't feel like it's actually widely realized yet that Seattle's run-D has been so-so this season.

Looks like Seattle got their act together after the bye and NYG's offense is a train wreck. Darkwa looks like a one-hit wonder to me.

[Slackalacker]

Darkwa couldn't get the job last year over Perkins, I don't see him solidifying it this year either.

To me the NYG backfield is a hot mess to steer clear from. If you can get Dede for him straight up then do it.

[Jaguars8907]

NYG are rotating RB's every week. I'd rather take a shot on Westbrook's upside

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

If you can get Westbrook for Darkwa, I'd 100% do that. I highly doubt that offer gets accepted though. I'd say Darkwa is worth a late 3rd at most, and Westbrook probably around a late 2nd?