Brandin Cooks vs. Fournette

[Vcize]

Cooks and it isn't even close. RBs come and go, Cooks will be around for likely another 8-10 years proving you fantastic production (as long as you can ride the lows, he should not be your WR1 by himself) where as Fournette has an injury history and is being driven into the GROUND. But this also depends on your situation/league/scoring, blah blah blah. RBs are always replaceable during a year (see Mckinnon, Darkwa, Carson (pre injury), Buck Allen). People who invest insane amounts of capital into RBs are playing extremely risky dynasty football. If I owned Fournette I would ride him this year and sell high on him at the end to a team that wants to give me something solid + a good first round pick.

Every position has players come and go during the year. Right now Chris Hogan, Adam Thielen, Pierre Garcon, Nelson Agholor, Devin Funchess, Jermaine Kearse are all putting up WR1 or WR2 numbers and could have been had for a song at the start of the year.

It's been my experience that a strong WR core is great for keeping you a mid-level contender long-term, but to actually win you need the RBs. There's a reason people like RBs even though their careers are shorter, you may be a contender for shorter but you're a much stronger contender. I remember having Fitz, Megatron, AND Andre Johnson at the same time in one of my dynasty league when they were the consensus #1, #2, and #3 dynasty WRs and my team was never better than a borderline playoff squad. But man, when I had Peterson, SJax, and Portis you couldn't hang the championship banners fast enough and it made almost no difference who the rest of my team consisted of.

[albedo1986]

Cooks and it isn't even close. RBs come and go, Cooks will be around for likely another 8-10 years proving you fantastic production (as long as you can ride the lows, he should not be your WR1 by himself) where as Fournette has an injury history and is being driven into the GROUND. But this also depends on your situation/league/scoring, blah blah blah. RBs are always replaceable during a year (see Mckinnon, Darkwa, Carson (pre injury), Buck Allen). People who invest insane amounts of capital into RBs are playing extremely risky dynasty football. If I owned Fournette I would ride him this year and sell high on him at the end to a team that wants to give me something solid + a good first round pick.

Every position has players come and go during the year. Right now Chris Hogan, Adam Thielen, Pierre Garcon, Nelson Agholor, Devin Funchess, Jermaine Kearse are all putting up WR1 or WR2 numbers and could have been had for a song at the start of the year.

It's been my experience that a strong WR core is great for keeping you a mid-level contender long-term, but to actually win you need the RBs. There's a reason people like RBs even though their careers are shorter, you may be a contender for shorter but you're a much stronger contender. I remember having Fitz, Megatron, AND Andre Johnson at the same time in one of my dynasty league when they were the consensus #1, #2, and #3 dynasty WRs and my team was never better than a borderline playoff squad. But man, when I had Peterson, SJax, and Portis you couldn't hang the championship banners fast enough and it made almost no difference who the rest of my team consisted of.

Then it sounds like you were unlucky and then you were lucky? The stats will back up that the WRs are ALWAYS better investments as their consistency will always be better overall year to year. Like I said, it's playing risky dynasty football, the conservative approach will net more value over time. If you're just making sure to capitalize on market inaccuracies you will fair better. Right now Fournette is being overvalued and Cooks is being undervalued. This is a perfect example of this and how you can snowball value. If people are wanting to give you Cooks and a first round value you snowball this into a Cooks + Hyde or a Cooks + Ingram or a Cooks + Murray or a Cooks + Mccoy. I wish Mixon was doing just as well and this is exactly what I would be doing with him.

[LaDarius]

I think Cooks is a great buy right now and am as high on him as anyone here, but this is Fournette easily. If we redrafted dynasty startups right now Fournette would be a top 5 overall pick and Cooks a mid 2nd rounder. The gap is at least a 1st, and that is probably buying low on Fournette as by next offseason he will likely command Zeke/OBJ type insane value to pry away from his owners.

My inclination was that Fournette would be worth a bit more, as many people so far have indicated. But in the October ADP, Cooks is ahead of Fournette. Has the last two games or so really shifted Fournette's value that much?

[Vcize]

Cooks and it isn't even close. RBs come and go, Cooks will be around for likely another 8-10 years proving you fantastic production (as long as you can ride the lows, he should not be your WR1 by himself) where as Fournette has an injury history and is being driven into the GROUND. But this also depends on your situation/league/scoring, blah blah blah. RBs are always replaceable during a year (see Mckinnon, Darkwa, Carson (pre injury), Buck Allen). People who invest insane amounts of capital into RBs are playing extremely risky dynasty football. If I owned Fournette I would ride him this year and sell high on him at the end to a team that wants to give me something solid + a good first round pick.

Every position has players come and go during the year. Right now Chris Hogan, Adam Thielen, Pierre Garcon, Nelson Agholor, Devin Funchess, Jermaine Kearse are all putting up WR1 or WR2 numbers and could have been had for a song at the start of the year.

It's been my experience that a strong WR core is great for keeping you a mid-level contender long-term, but to actually win you need the RBs. There's a reason people like RBs even though their careers are shorter, you may be a contender for shorter but you're a much stronger contender. I remember having Fitz, Megatron, AND Andre Johnson at the same time in one of my dynasty league when they were the consensus #1, #2, and #3 dynasty WRs and my team was never better than a borderline playoff squad. But man, when I had Peterson, SJax, and Portis you couldn't hang the championship banners fast enough and it made almost no difference who the rest of my team consisted of.

Then it sounds like you were unlucky and then you were lucky? The stats will back up that the WRs are ALWAYS better investments as their consistency will always be better overall year to year. Like I said, it's playing risky dynasty football, the conservative approach will net more value over time. If you're just making sure to capitalize on market inaccuracies you will fair better. Right now Fournette is being overvalued and Cooks is being undervalued. This is a perfect example of this and how you can snowball value. If people are wanting to give you Cooks and a first round value you snowball this into a Cooks + Hyde or a Cooks + Ingram or a Cooks + Murray or a Cooks + Mccoy. I wish Mixon was doing just as well and this is exactly what I would be doing with him.

I don't think luck had anything to do with it. I circled back in that league to focus on RBs again and won 2 out of 3 titles with Bell/Murray, plus with DJ last year it was such a coast to the title that I barely even had to pay attention to the league or what WRs I was trotting out there. A far cry from the dominant trio of Fitz/Megatron/AJ.

In another dynasty startup auction 4 years ago I blew my entire startup load on AJG/Dez/Jordy and that team hasn't made the playoffs either. Between my 4 dynasty leagues the OBJ/Evans owners have zero titles while in every single one of them the Bell owner has won at least 1.

Obviously anecdotal evidence isn't much good so maybe my experiences have just been clouded by unlikely circumstance. But there is statistical basis for it too. Reggie Wayne was a strong WR1 for more than a decade but he racked up less career VBD than Terrell Davis, who fizzled out after his 4th season. RBs give you an advantage for a shorter span but the advantage is so much greater during that span it often makes up the difference. In this case, 3-4 years of Davis was more likely to bring titles home than more than a decade of Wayne. Fournette may very well end up with more career VBD after his rookie year than Cooks has racked up in 4 years combined.

You mentioned flipping the 1st for someone like Ingram but that's the thing, the Fournette owner need only pick up someone like Brice Butler to make up that difference. That is to say Fournette/Butler are actually scoring more points per game than Cooks/Ingram. That's how crazy large the advantage of an elite RB is, because obviously the Fournette owner is likely rolling out someone much better than Brice Butler and is getting a huge weekly advantage over the Cooks/Ingram owner.

Like I said I love Cooks. Have him rostered in most of my dynasties and I actually think he's underrated right now. But there is a reason these elite 20+ ppg scoring RBs are such a commodity. They are such a massive weekly advantage even if that advantage doesn't last as long.

[Triton85]

I personally like LF over cooks, yes WR last longer.. but how many people keep players for more than 3-4 years (outside the top 2-3 at each position)

With that in mind I take the player that has better 2-4 year outlook, I think LF will have more value during the next 2 years than Cooks will. Patriots always have a lot of mouths to feed as well

[Vcize]

I think Cooks is a great buy right now and am as high on him as anyone here, but this is Fournette easily. If we redrafted dynasty startups right now Fournette would be a top 5 overall pick and Cooks a mid 2nd rounder. The gap is at least a 1st, and that is probably buying low on Fournette as by next offseason he will likely command Zeke/OBJ type insane value to pry away from his owners.

My inclination was that Fournette would be worth a bit more, as many people so far have indicated. But in the October ADP, Cooks is ahead of Fournette. Has the last two games or so really shifted Fournette's value that much?

The last two games definitely have compounded his value rise, but the bigger issue here is that while mock drafts are a fun exercise, they don't always provide a useful measure of value.

Mock drafts tend to overwhelmingly favor big names, past hype, and past production. People don't want to look like they're reaching for a player in mocks and draft very differently than if they were actually were actually going to have to own the player they were picking in a league for the next 10 years. That's why guys like Amari Cooper, Dez Bryant, Sammy Watkins, etc have barely moved in mock drafts while if you go to the trade forum here you will see that their actual value has moved massively. The same goes in reverse for guys like Todd Gurley who moved up 5 spots from just before the start of the season to now whereas his actual value jump is much more massive.

Heck, Fournette's value in that mock is still eight spots WORSE than his actual ADP position was in real drafts on MFL before the season, and obviously his value has only gone up from where he was actually being drafted back then.

Go to the trade forum and tell people you're wondering what the Todd Gurley owner needs to throw in to get your Amari Cooper and see what people say. Or ask what the Fournette owner needs to add in to get your Sammy Watkins. Because the mock data says Cooper >> Gurley and Watkins > Fournette, but if you actually start talking about trying to make trades in that direction the response will likely be the exact opposite.

[Vcize]

To further illustrate the point I was making above about mock drafts vs. actual value, note that the mock ADP you're referencing has Antonio Brown at 1.3 and Fournette at 2.9, yet there is a post here on this trade forum discussing Brown PLUS a 1st for Fournette and most seem to have it even.

So the mock data has AB much more valuable, but actual value has Fournette as more valuable by as much as a 1st.

[albedo1986]

Every position has players come and go during the year. Right now Chris Hogan, Adam Thielen, Pierre Garcon, Nelson Agholor, Devin Funchess, Jermaine Kearse are all putting up WR1 or WR2 numbers and could have been had for a song at the start of the year.

It's been my experience that a strong WR core is great for keeping you a mid-level contender long-term, but to actually win you need the RBs. There's a reason people like RBs even though their careers are shorter, you may be a contender for shorter but you're a much stronger contender. I remember having Fitz, Megatron, AND Andre Johnson at the same time in one of my dynasty league when they were the consensus #1, #2, and #3 dynasty WRs and my team was never better than a borderline playoff squad. But man, when I had Peterson, SJax, and Portis you couldn't hang the championship banners fast enough and it made almost no difference who the rest of my team consisted of.

Then it sounds like you were unlucky and then you were lucky? The stats will back up that the WRs are ALWAYS better investments as their consistency will always be better overall year to year. Like I said, it's playing risky dynasty football, the conservative approach will net more value over time. If you're just making sure to capitalize on market inaccuracies you will fair better. Right now Fournette is being overvalued and Cooks is being undervalued. This is a perfect example of this and how you can snowball value. If people are wanting to give you Cooks and a first round value you snowball this into a Cooks + Hyde or a Cooks + Ingram or a Cooks + Murray or a Cooks + Mccoy. I wish Mixon was doing just as well and this is exactly what I would be doing with him.

I don't think luck had anything to do with it. I circled back in that league to focus on RBs again and won 2 out of 3 titles with Bell/Murray, plus with DJ last year it was such a coast to the title that I barely even had to pay attention to the league or what WRs I was trotting out there. A far cry from the dominant trio of Fitz/Megatron/AJ.

In another dynasty startup auction 4 years ago I blew my entire startup load on AJG/Dez/Jordy and that team hasn't made the playoffs either. Between my 4 dynasty leagues the OBJ/Evans owners have zero titles while in every single one of them the Bell owner has won at least 1.

Obviously anecdotal evidence isn't much good so maybe my experiences have just been clouded by unlikely circumstance. But there is statistical basis for it too. Reggie Wayne was a strong WR1 for more than a decade but he racked up less career VBD than Terrell Davis, who fizzled out after his 4th season. RBs give you an advantage for a shorter span but the advantage is so much greater during that span it often makes up the difference. In this case, 3-4 years of Davis was more likely to bring titles home than more than a decade of Wayne. Fournette may very well end up with more career VBD after his rookie year than Cooks has racked up in 4 years combined.

You mentioned flipping the 1st for someone like Ingram but that's the thing, the Fournette owner need only pick up someone like Brice Butler to make up that difference. That is to say Fournette/Butler are actually scoring more points per game than Cooks/Ingram. That's how crazy large the advantage of an elite RB is, because obviously the Fournette owner is likely rolling out someone much better than Brice Butler and is getting a huge weekly advantage over the Cooks/Ingram owner.

Like I said I love Cooks. Have him rostered in most of my dynasties and I actually think he's underrated right now. But there is a reason these elite 20+ ppg scoring RBs are such a commodity. They are such a massive weekly advantage even if that advantage doesn't last as long.

I would say if you're not winning with a combo like AJG/Dez/Jordy than the reality is you have no idea how to target solid RB2s. This is assuming that you're in a full PPR, because if we're talking standard this shifts pretty radically. The reality is the reason why these strats can work is because people panic and shove around a bunch of valuable assets and they get capitalized on by the sharks. Absolutely believe that you can ride Fournette this year (barring injury) but down the line the Cooks/Ingram (and you could have had Ingram for much cheaper) owner would have invested less into quality assets and come ahead. This isn't a new concept, and it's been proven year in and year out. RBs are expendable and the rock solid WRs are just not. Hell this isn't even a fantasy scope this is an NFL scope haha. There's a reason why these teams grab players that can either help or hurt the pass in the first couple of rounds more than anything else. If it weren't for Zeke breaking out (and eek look at what's going on now) we wouldn't be seeing so many RBs going early in the draft.

I could obviously refute this with the fact that in all of my leagues right now the Zeke/Bell/DJ owners are either middle of the pack or towards the end of it. Do you know how much capital they invested in those players? WAY too much, and they're hurting because of it, and they can't even dig themselves out. Now those solid rookie picks they're getting they'll likely direct to young WRs to bolster their core, which will take time to develop and the ones with solid WRs will typically pick up a young RB prospect. This is why you target quality RB2s with upside (and possibly some solid ppr backs that are under appreciated - hello Chris Thompson). It limits your risk and propels your long term prospect. People get so locked in on these breakout RBs on the year and then end up bleep themselves eventually, happens every year lol. And the value swings are insaneeeeee, look at Gurley, for the love. But even the almost certainly hopeless WRs are given chance after chance after chance and retain so much value (Moncrief, Doctson, White, Perriman, Treadwell, the list goes on on)

[albedo1986]

To further illustrate the point I was making above about mock drafts vs. actual value, note that the mock ADP you're referencing has Antonio Brown at 1.3 and Fournette at 2.9, yet there is a post here on this trade forum discussing Brown PLUS a 1st for Fournette and most seem to have it even.

So the mock data has AB much more valuable, but actual value has Fournette as more valuable by as much as a 1st.

This is literally the definition of a "sell high". When the current value is in extreme excess of the actual ADP.