Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

This is the place for team advice - should I make this trade, should I draft that player, etc.

Who is worth more?

Kareem Hunt
6
12%
David Johnson
46
88%
 
Total votes: 52

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Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby chalorpas » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:23 pm

This is a 32-team, double roster, 8 vet keeper, 4 rookie keeper, 0.5 PPR league. A team traded David Johnson for Kareem Hunt. Multiple league members think that the owner who gave up Hunt is crazy and one suggested collusion. I wasn't outraged by the trade either way but thought it was odd that Hunt is now considered what must be a top 5 asset by some? Posting a poll for confirmation :confused: .

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Re: Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby Gtdano_14 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:25 pm

:wtf: :doh:
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QB- R.Wilson, B. Mayfield
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Re: Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby oppy » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:31 pm

I did a late dynasty startup draft last night.... and Kareem Hunt went #1 overall. In a PPR superflex league.

People are insane.

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Re: Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby Goddard » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:57 pm

:silent: speechless

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Re: Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby dd041496 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:59 pm

I’m a huge Hunt fan from watching him play at college to now. But give me DJ all day...
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Re: Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby Space Cowboy » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:12 pm

DJ at the dollar store has been a theme around here.

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Re: Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby EAGLES » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:27 pm

Seriously, I don’t understand the justification here. The Hunt owner got a HUGE steal taking DJ for Hunt straight up. Hunt has had 2 games...TWO! And people are labeling him as a top 5 asset in the likes of DJ, Bell, OBJ, Julio, Evans etc.

The Hunt owner in my league wanted Julio straight up. I laughed at him and then he told me Hunt will go number one next year
:wall: :wtf: :nono:
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Re: Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby IR1 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:34 pm

Would love to hear the thoughts of the two who voted Hunt
10Team PPR-QB/RB/WR/WR/TE/PK/flex-DT/DE/DE/LB/LB/LB/CB/CB/S/S/flex
QB- Herbert, Tua
RB- Barkley, Swift, Montgomery, Dobbins, Walker
WR-Adams, ARSB, JWilliams, Godwin, Metcalf, Allen, Kirk, Flowers
TE- Kelce, Goedert
PK
DT- Buckner, Simmons, QWilliams,
DE- Hunter, JBosa, Thibodeaux, JPHillips, Rousseau, Paye, Greenard
LB- Edmunds, Warner, E Kendricks, Wagner, De"Vondre Campbell, Asamoah, Sanders
CB- Moore, Howard, Reed
S- Dugger, Pitre, Thompson
IR Dobbins, Dulcich
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Re: Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby Spongehack » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:36 pm

:wall: That's a HUGE risk for the former DJ owner. Only time will tell...
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Re: Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby Slackalacker » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:42 pm

Definitely not a trade to be appalled at, ESPECIALLY in favor of Hunt.

DJ side won by a mile but I understand the wide eyes of the DJ owner thinking "I just got a younger healthier new DJ for my team"

Not that I think that's the case but some people see it that way. Mostly people who don't understand how to value properly after two weeks.
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WR: Hill - JJeff - Higgins - Hollywood - MThom(IR) - Godwin(IR) - E Moore - Marshall Jr - Calloway - Palmer - D Brown
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Re: Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby Vcize » Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:46 pm

IR1 wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:34 pm Would love to hear the thoughts of the two who voted Hunt
I will bite.

I have DJ in one league and Hunt in the other. In the league I have Hunt I would not trade him for DJ at this point.

I'm going to disagree with some here that say people overreact sometimes. While that's true, I also think in general people react too slowly in dynasty. It's kind of bizarre to watch someone's in-season dynasty rankings. They're almost always very similar to the pre-season rankings, but then suddenly in the next offseason they're completely different.

"It's just two games", I get it. But it's not just two games in a vacuum. Hunt passes the eye test with flying colors for me and has exactly what I look for in a back, but beyond that Andy Reid has a superb track record of finding talented backs in the middle round. It's not just that he gets to play in Reid's system, it's that Reid picked him (and traded up) right in a similar spot to where he picked several elite backs before, and Reid's choice is a major endorsement. On its own not necessarily a huge thing, but these things are adding up. Picked there by Reid, looks the part to our eyes, and has the production to match over two games. Not two games in a vacuum, two games verifying all of those things.

The other half of this is I think people are just ignoring that there is risk with DJ too. Less than Hunt of course, but enough that we shouldn't all be ignoring it. One year of elite fantasy production is far from any guarantee and history is literred with guys who were top 3 dynasty players after 1 year and then fell off precipitously. Arizona looks like they are really turning into a dumpster fire. As bad as it looks now, imagine next year with Palmer/Fitz likely gone. Sure, DJ is probably still good enough to get his, but probably not anywhere near the level of last year. Obviously, there is the 4 year age difference as well, at a position where value drops quickly with age.

Sure, it's risky to move a guy like DJ for Hunt, but the payoff is massive. What would a 22 year old Jamaal Charles be worth? A 22 year old Shady McCoy? A 22 year old Brian Westbrook? And before anyone says he's not as talented as those guys, he has similar draft pedigree and similarly passes the eye test (at least to me).

If Hunt finishes this year as the RB1 or even as a top 5 RB, what will his value be compared to David Johnson's when people start looking at DJ about to turn 27? Obviously whether or not Hunt can finish there is a big "if" but let's not pretend there isn't a big payoff here.

Hunt is kind of a weird player. It's hard to buy him because the price is so steep. But in leagues where I have him you'd have to pry him out of my cold dead hands. Maybe that will be a mistake in the end but I'm a risk taker in fantasy and this guy is the biggest potential payout that's ever been put in front of me and when I watch him he looks the part to me.

Obviously, talk of collusion is insane, but I'm putting all my eggs in that basket and either thriving or crashing on the back of Hunt personally. I'm sure there were people that thought it was insane to move Gurley for Zeke two games into last season as well.
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Re: Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:06 pm

I'm guessing the only rationale here is that Hunt will help a team in the 8-12 weeks Johnson won't. But long-term, I don't get it.

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Re: Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby IR1 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:40 pm

Vcize wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:46 pm
IR1 wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:34 pm Would love to hear the thoughts of the two who voted Hunt
I will bite.

I have DJ in one league and Hunt in the other. In the league I have Hunt I would not trade him for DJ at this point.

I'm going to disagree with some here that say people overreact sometimes. While that's true, I also think in general people react too slowly in dynasty. It's kind of bizarre to watch someone's in-season dynasty rankings. They're almost always very similar to the pre-season rankings, but then suddenly in the next offseason they're completely different.

"It's just two games", I get it. But it's not just two games in a vacuum. Hunt passes the eye test with flying colors for me and has exactly what I look for in a back, but beyond that Andy Reid has a superb track record of finding talented backs in the middle round. It's not just that he gets to play in Reid's system, it's that Reid picked him (and traded up) right in a similar spot to where he picked several elite backs before, and Reid's choice is a major endorsement. On its own not necessarily a huge thing, but these things are adding up. Picked there by Reid, looks the part to our eyes, and has the production to match over two games. Not two games in a vacuum, two games verifying all of those things.

The other half of this is I think people are just ignoring that there is risk with DJ too. Less than Hunt of course, but enough that we shouldn't all be ignoring it. One year of elite fantasy production is far from any guarantee and history is literred with guys who were top 3 dynasty players after 1 year and then fell off precipitously. Arizona looks like they are really turning into a dumpster fire. As bad as it looks now, imagine next year with Palmer/Fitz likely gone. Sure, DJ is probably still good enough to get his, but probably not anywhere near the level of last year. Obviously, there is the 4 year age difference as well, at a position where value drops quickly with age.

Sure, it's risky to move a guy like DJ for Hunt, but the payoff is massive. What would a 22 year old Jamaal Charles be worth? A 22 year old Shady McCoy? A 22 year old Brian Westbrook? And before anyone says he's not as talented as those guys, he has similar draft pedigree and similarly passes the eye test (at least to me).

If Hunt finishes this year as the RB1 or even as a top 5 RB, what will his value be compared to David Johnson's when people start looking at DJ about to turn 27? Obviously whether or not Hunt can finish there is a big "if" but let's not pretend there isn't a big payoff here.

Hunt is kind of a weird player. It's hard to buy him because the price is so steep. But in leagues where I have him you'd have to pry him out of my cold dead hands. Maybe that will be a mistake in the end but I'm a risk taker in fantasy and this guy is the biggest potential payout that's ever been put in front of me and when I watch him he looks the part to me.

Obviously, talk of collusion is insane, but I'm putting all my eggs in that basket and either thriving or crashing on the back of Hunt personally. I'm sure there were people that thought it was insane to move Gurley for Zeke two games into last season as well.
Was hoping to land Hunt in rookie drafts without success, so I understand the appeal. I also understand DJ may be out most/all this year, just seems like person sending DJ should have been able to get more to go with Hunt
10Team PPR-QB/RB/WR/WR/TE/PK/flex-DT/DE/DE/LB/LB/LB/CB/CB/S/S/flex
QB- Herbert, Tua
RB- Barkley, Swift, Montgomery, Dobbins, Walker
WR-Adams, ARSB, JWilliams, Godwin, Metcalf, Allen, Kirk, Flowers
TE- Kelce, Goedert
PK
DT- Buckner, Simmons, QWilliams,
DE- Hunter, JBosa, Thibodeaux, JPHillips, Rousseau, Paye, Greenard
LB- Edmunds, Warner, E Kendricks, Wagner, De"Vondre Campbell, Asamoah, Sanders
CB- Moore, Howard, Reed
S- Dugger, Pitre, Thompson
IR Dobbins, Dulcich
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Re: Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby Space Cowboy » Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:05 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:06 pm I'm guessing the only rationale here is that Hunt will help a team in the 8-12 weeks Johnson won't. But long-term, I don't get it.
DJ is gonna sit out the whole year but still it's a bad trade.

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Re: Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

Postby Vcize » Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:07 pm

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:06 pm I'm guessing the only rationale here is that Hunt will help a team in the 8-12 weeks Johnson won't. But long-term, I don't get it.
There are some pretty reasonable paths to Hunt having more consensus value than DJ as early as next offseason.

With Hunt's big start, he only needs to average 11ppg to finish as a top 10 RB (based on the number of points required to finish top 10 last year). 11ppg seems like his floor in PPR if he stays healthy just as the Chiefs' starting RB, even if he's not really any good.

He needs 17ppg to finish the season as a top 3 RB (again based on last year's numbers). With DJ out and Bell/Zeke off to a slow start, he'd probably need even less than that since it seems unlikely any of those guys are going to hit last year's numbers. He might only need as few as 15ppg the rest of the way to finish top 3, which is about what Latavius Murray averaged last year.

So if the latter happens, what is his value as an about to turn 23 years old RB coming off a top 3 finish? I think when people look at him side by side as 23 years old coming off that season next to DJ about to turn 27, the consensus is probably going to lean towards the 23 year old guy even if he's scoring a few less PPG. And that's of course assuming that DJ doesn't look worse at the end of this year than he did last year, which I think is very possible on this bad team.

Of course there is always the risk of Hunt being a pretender and fizzling out, but there is a not that difficult path to a strong RB1 finish in terms of stats, and that will leave him with a ton of value in the offseason.
Last edited by Vcize on Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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