Trade Complete: Kareem Hunt for David Johnson

[Cameron Giles]

I'm guessing the only rationale here is that Hunt will help a team in the 8-12 weeks Johnson won't. But long-term, I don't get it.

There are some pretty reasonable paths to Hunt having more consensus value than DJ as early as next offseason.

With Hunt's big start, he only needs to average 11ppg to finish as a top 10 RB (based on the number of points required to finish top 10 last year). 11ppg seems like his floor in PPR if he stays healthy just as the Chiefs' starting RB, even if he's not really any good.

He needs 17ppg to finish the season as a top 3 RB (again based on last year's numbers). With DJ out and Bell/Zeke off to a slow start, he'd probably need even less than that since it seems unlikely any of those guys are going to hit last year's numbers.

So if the latter happens, what is his value as an about to turn 23 years old RB coming off a top 3 finish? I think when people look at him side by side as 23 years old coming off that season next to DJ about to turn 27, the consensus is probably going to lean towards the 23 year old guy even if he's scoring a few less PPG. And that's of course assuming that DJ doesn't look worse at the end of this year than he did last year, which I think is very possible on this bad team.

Of course there is always the risk of Hunt being a pretender and fizzling out, but there is a not that difficult path to a strong RB1 finish in terms of stats, and that will leave him with a ton of value in the offseason.

I feel like that's a lot to jump to after 2 games. While I do think Hunt is the real deal, he doesn't do anything better than Johnson. To me, that's the classic case of taking the shiny new toy over the proven stud.

[Mephistopheles]

Holy bleep. I need to start shopping Hunt. This is insane, rookie fever at its finest.
My word, people, this is DJ and it's not even close.
Start of the season aside, I'd need at least 1 if not 2 first on top of Hunt just to have it enter my mind to move DJ.

[saw061600]

I would like this trade had DJ blew up his knee. It's a freak wrist injury. DJ has demonstrated he can stand up to the workhorse level and the beating that comes with all those touches. Hunt looks great but can he take the beating?

[Phaded]

This is crazy to me.
I get it that Hunt has had a good start but watch the game.. Hunt is not close to DJ.

[vixen]

8 vet keeper, 4 rookie keeper,

i think the 4 rookie keeper part of this league is key to owner trading for hunt....i suppose i would consider the trade if i thought it was the difference between a super bowl contender and a losing season

[Vcize]

I would like this trade had DJ blew up his knee. It's a freak wrist injury. DJ has demonstrated he can stand up to the workhorse level and the beating that comes with all those touches. Hunt looks great but can he take the beating?

DJ has started 17 games and he has had 2 fairly major injuries in that time. We just got lucky that last year it occurred in week 17 so he didn't miss any games for it.

[Vcize]

Holy bleep. I need to start shopping Hunt. This is insane, rookie fever at its finest.
My word, people, this is DJ and it's not even close.
Start of the season aside, I'd need at least 1 if not 2 first on top of Hunt just to have it enter my mind to move DJ.

By all means, offer it up. There are a lot of DJ owners that will take it, and it would be another good data point for us on whether he accepts or not. Win/win.

[Vcize]

This is crazy to me.
I get it that Hunt has had a good start but watch the game.. Hunt is not close to DJ.

And a year ago people would have said "DJ is not close to Gurley".

There are a lot of different versions of talent. Hunt is only 22 and he already has elite leg strength and elite instincts/vision.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

8 vet keeper, 4 rookie keeper,

i think the 4 rookie keeper part of this league is key to owner trading for hunt....i suppose i would consider the trade if i thought it was the difference between a super bowl contender and a losing season

So how does that work? The 4 rookies don't count toward the 8 other keepers?

I am still taking DJ here, but I can understand it. Hunt looks to be a perfect back for his situation, and this year is still the most important year for most teams. I don't understand how it would cause any sort of scandal either way though. As someone mentioned above, DJ had a wrist inury. It isn't going to affect his performance when he comes back.

[chalorpas]

8 vet keeper, 4 rookie keeper,

i think the 4 rookie keeper part of this league is key to owner trading for hunt....i suppose i would consider the trade if i thought it was the difference between a super bowl contender and a losing season

So how does that work? The 4 rookies don't count toward the 8 other keepers?

I am still taking DJ here, but I can understand it. Hunt looks to be a perfect back for his situation, and this year is still the most important year for most teams. I don't understand how it would cause any sort of scandal either way though. As someone mentioned above, DJ had a wrist inury. It isn't going to affect his performance when he comes back.

Yep, the 4 rookies don't count toward the 8 other keepers. The team who traded for Hunt has the best team in the league easily so from his perspective it made sense.

[Oddball456]

8 vet keeper, 4 rookie keeper,

i think the 4 rookie keeper part of this league is key to owner trading for hunt....i suppose i would consider the trade if i thought it was the difference between a super bowl contender and a losing season

So how does that work? The 4 rookies don't count toward the 8 other keepers?

I am still taking DJ here, but I can understand it. Hunt looks to be a perfect back for his situation, and this year is still the most important year for most teams. I don't understand how it would cause any sort of scandal either way though. As someone mentioned above, DJ had a wrist inury. It isn't going to affect his performance when he comes back.

I totally agree. If I had DJ and was thin at RB now and a Hunt offer came in, I would be very happy. Could save my season, Hunt has looked great and in a offense that features a work horse back. As others have already mentioned: if Hunt finishes top 3 at RB this year (which barring injure of course) looks like he could pretty easy, at age 22, in a perfect situation, what will his value be next year? Plus, you get all of 2017 of stud RB production.

I think overall the trade is pretty even and am actually surprised people think that it crazy at all, either way.

[Balzac]

This is crazy to me.
I get it that Hunt has had a good start but watch the game.. Hunt is not close to DJ.

And a year ago people would have said "DJ is not close to Gurley".

There are a lot of different versions of talent. Hunt is only 22 and he already has elite leg strength and elite instincts/vision.

I don't think that is technically true. Their values were much closer than now but I still think David had gained the edge at this point.

I think your point still stands that it can change in a blink. I just wouldn't say Hunt should be valued more than Johnson. Johnson got hurt so there is a lot of bias leaning on this trade. A healthy David Johnson should be valued much higher than Hunt even if he is gaining ground every day. This is dynasty injuries shouldnt have that much effect on value.