Cohen vs. Howard

[Maximus891]

Howard is the better long-term own. The issue right now with the Bears is that their offensive line isn't at complete strength and teams don't respect the passing game. So, essentially you can load the box and play man with the secondary. Also, Howard is battling some sort of shoulder injury.

I told some pals Cohen would be starter in Chi before the season was over and got him everywhere in the offseason, I'm keeping Cohen here and I know I'll be in the minority. He'll put up better numbers every week then Howard will especially in a PPR

Cohen will never start. He's not a between-the-tackles runner and he's too small. If you played Cohen every down, he would get injured very quickly.

Given the options this year for the bears at RB I can see Cohen starting games over a healthy Howard. He was an every down back in college I'm sure he could manage a season or two if need be. There have been plenty of small men that have played in the NFL who continued to shock at what they can do at their positions for their size. IE Steve Smith at WR, Drew Brees being to small for a QB. I believe Cohen will eventually be in the category and sooner then later. I also believe Howard isn't what people believe him to be.

[jonf86]

I will be in the minority; but if I was offered Howard straight up for Cohen I would not take it.

Full disclosure, I have never believed in Howard.

I just don't understand this line of thinking. What has Cohen done to justify being in the same conversation as a lead back who rushed for 1300 yards with over a 5 yards/carry clip in essentially 13 games (at least as a starter)?

Cohen doesn't have the draft pedigree, he doesn't have the production, he doesn't have the prototypical size. I'm shocked that even the biggest Howard doubters would take Cohen over him. I considered myself fairly high on Cohen before reading this thread, but I suppose I'm not if it takes Howard to get him.

Howard is nothing special. He had inflated stats last year from breaking big runs against poor defensive plays. One of the biggest things in Howard's favour was projected workload but even that has taken a hit. He is a very inefficient runner and became overvalued very quickly.

Cohen is heavily involved in the passing game and as I play PPR, that is what I look for. I do not think Cohen will ever be a feature back and he does not need to be.

Why would you bring draft pedigree into the discussion as a knock against Cohen? You do realize Howard was drafted in the 5th and Cohen was in the 4th, right?

I disagree with so much here, I don't even know where to start. Let's agree to disagree on this one.

I was only bringing up draft pedigree as a possible justification for why a rookie could be ranked ahead of Howard. Yes, I realize Howard was a 5th rounder, but he has produced an amazing season already. You want to chalk it up to being lucky on big runs, be my guest. Cohen, meanwhile, has no such production as two games aren't a big enough sample size to make a definitive judgement. Even if you don't believe in Howard, how do you justify ranking a 4th round rookie over him. My point was, draft pedigree can't be the answer, production can't be........Really nothing can be. He doesn't have that value yet and likely never will. Doesn't mean he still can't be a solid player.

[Overachiever77]

Howard without a doubt.

[Cameron Giles]

Given the options this year for the bears at RB I can see Cohen starting games over a healthy Howard. He was an every down back in college I'm sure he could manage a season or two if need be. There have been plenty of small men that have played in the NFL who continued to shock at what they can do at their positions for their size. IE Steve Smith at WR, Drew Brees being to small for a QB. I believe Cohen will eventually be in the category and sooner then later. I also believe Howard isn't what people believe him to be.

How many 5'6 RB's have been every-down backs in the NFL? Even if it's just 1 or 2 players, they're the exception and not the rule.

Cohen is not starting over a healthy Jordan Howard. He struggles in pass protection, can't run between the tackles and will get injured quickly. Players like Cohen are not meant to be used on every down. They're novelty players. The beauty of someone like Darren Sproles is that the Chargers had primary weapons in Tomlinson, Gates and V-Jax. So, when you put Sproles on the field with them, it flips everything upside down and creates havoc for defenses. The only reason the Bears are using Cohen as much as they are right now is because they have no receiving options.

I think Cohen offers a higher floor in PPR, but I also don't think what Howard did last season was a fluke.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

I'll go so far as to call anyone passing on this offer a fool. Might as well pick DMC over Zeke or Conner over Bell.

Crazy talk.
Is Howard as talented as Zeke and Bell?
Are DMC and Conner outproducing Zeke and Bell?

I agree with selling Cohen, but I want nothing to do with Howard. He is a falling knife.

[Maximus891]

Time will tell but look at Howards stats so far in 2 weeks
week 1 52yards on 13 carries - Snap Count Howard 38, Cohen 28
Cohen - 5 for 66yards
week 2 9yards on 7 carries (injury and he 6 foot) - Snap Count Cohen 40, Howard 31
Cohen 7 for 13yards

[jcc6fd]

Wow the 2 week over reactions are insane. I'm not one to equal Cohen to worthlessness, but this kind of shift in valuation in dynasty is dangerous. I've always contended that Howard was overrated but this is really egregious.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Wow the 2 week over reactions are insane. I'm not one to equal Cohen to worthlessness, but this kind of shift in valuation in dynasty is dangerous. I've always contended that Howard was overrated but this is really egregious.

It is just as dangerous to underreact as overreact, IMO, and people are usually way more guilty of the former than the latter. Howard had warning signs of being a Hill type situation, and the early returns look like he is exactly that. That is not a guy I want to buy at the moment.

[Phaded]

Wow the 2 week over reactions are insane. I'm not one to equal Cohen to worthlessness, but this kind of shift in valuation in dynasty is dangerous. I've always contended that Howard was overrated but this is really egregious.

It is just as dangerous to underreact as overreact, IMO, and people are usually way more guilty of the former than the latter. Howard had warning signs of being a Hill type situation, and the early returns look like he is exactly that. That is not a guy I want to buy at the moment.

Really funny you make the Hill reference - that is exactly what I see.

[jcc6fd]

Wow the 2 week over reactions are insane. I'm not one to equal Cohen to worthlessness, but this kind of shift in valuation in dynasty is dangerous. I've always contended that Howard was overrated but this is really egregious.

It is just as dangerous to underreact as overreact, IMO, and people are usually way more guilty of the former than the latter. Howard had warning signs of being a Hill type situation, and the early returns look like he is exactly that. That is not a guy I want to buy at the moment.

I get your point regarding under reaction, but no, people do not under react more often than they overreact. They overreact far more often. Trading firsts and valuable dynasty assets for WW pickups will more often than not result in a losing proposition. That's why I'm okay with missing out on them if they hit, because it's so rare.

[Phaded]

Wow the 2 week over reactions are insane. I'm not one to equal Cohen to worthlessness, but this kind of shift in valuation in dynasty is dangerous. I've always contended that Howard was overrated but this is really egregious.

It is just as dangerous to underreact as overreact, IMO, and people are usually way more guilty of the former than the latter. Howard had warning signs of being a Hill type situation, and the early returns look like he is exactly that. That is not a guy I want to buy at the moment.

I get your point regarding under reaction, but no, people do not under react more often than they overreact. They overreact far more often. Trading firsts and valuable dynasty assets for WW pickups will more often than not result in a losing proposition. That's why I'm okay with missing out on them if they hit, because it's so rare.

I think he is on to something with the under-reacting though - as in; people are not quick enough to think that something is wrong with a player or see where a potential issue might be because "he has looked good before".

[jcc6fd]

It is just as dangerous to underreact as overreact, IMO, and people are usually way more guilty of the former than the latter. Howard had warning signs of being a Hill type situation, and the early returns look like he is exactly that. That is not a guy I want to buy at the moment.

I get your point regarding under reaction, but no, people do not under react more often than they overreact. They overreact far more often. Trading firsts and valuable dynasty assets for WW pickups will more often than not result in a losing proposition. That's why I'm okay with missing out on them if they hit, because it's so rare.

I think he is on to something with the under-reacting though - as in; people are not quick enough to think that something is wrong with a player or see where a potential issue might be because "he has looked good before".

I totally agree with that point. I think this about Arob. Of course his supporters have plausible deniability with Bortles being the QB and now the injury, but the fact that we still value him as elite seems like too slow of reaction to me. I can definitely see the same thing being true of Howard, just not ready to sell him for a WW pickup after 2 bad games when we know he had an injury and the entire offense was in shambles.

[Phaded]

I think he is on to something with the under-reacting though - as in; people are not quick enough to think that something is wrong with a player or see where a potential issue might be because "he has looked good before".

I totally agree with that point. I think this about Arob. Of course his supporters have plausible deniability with Bortles being the QB and now the injury, but the fact that we still value him as elite seems like too slow of reaction to me. I can definitely see the same thing being true of Howard, just not ready to sell him for a WW pickup after 2 bad games when we know he had an injury and the entire offense was in shambles.

I am kind of guilty of the ARob thing - but I was more of the position that I could not get anything worth selling him for so I will just wait and see to hope he bounces back. Then of course he got hurt.

This has happened with so many players because there are way more "one year wonders" than people would like to acknowledge. Which makes playing dynasty fantasy football such a challenge sometimes.

[Seventy5]

I would take it but ONLY to then immediately flip Howard for an asset I did like (player or pick).

STATS ASIDE, I think Howard is maybe a slightly above average JAG starter, and that he'll produce until someone with real talent comes along. I think he is alright-good, but being unless an RB brings something special to the table they are, in my opinion, unlikely to hold onto the starting gig long-term. To me he isn't THAT much different from Alfred Morris, Zac Stacy, Latavius Murray, etc in that he'll produce for however long he's thrown out there as the starter....but I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on that lasting 3-5 years. That's not to say he isn't useful, he is and will be, but I sure as heck wouldn't invest a late 2nd-early 3rd round start up pick in him to build a roster around him and I would happily trade him if anybody wanted to give me that value.

I could easily be wrong, but Howard is the type of guy I'd rather sell off now for a safer asset, even if it's just a perceived lateral move.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Yeah, my response is more toward Howard's value than Cohen's. Cohen may have been free a few weeks ago, but he was a decently high draft pick that the bears had a plan for from the start of the year, and have had success implementing it. Does that mean he is going to maintain his production and be an RB1? No, that is pretty unlikely. But it is very likely that it continues to cause problems for Howard, and there are other players I would rather sell Cohen for right now.